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FROM BUY-BUY TO BYE-BYE!

Like it or not, the cycles of life are still in tact. The incredible (and illegal) run-away days for the stock market from 1995-2000 now are paying the dividends of truth. And, the costs are high.

Executives who were aggressive and border-line thieves were sought out and made CEO’s. They were offered millions IF they could increase the value of their stock. They just were not told that they needed to do it legally. Many are under indictment, but many more are yet to be indicted- and go to jail!

Mutual funds are going out of business about as fast as buggy whips did with the advent of the automobile. Since March of 2000, 414 mutual funds have been liquidated. Another 566 funds have merged. And those that remain are suffering losses of enormous percentages. Or should I say YOU are showing enormous losses.

The problem is not just with America, but the world. Of course, the U.S. being the major engine in moving the world’s economy, our sickness infects much of the world.

Then there’s China. China can supply the entire world’s manufacturing needs and then some. In other words, China is applying pressures to American corporation’s profits: like there aren’t any. No amount of trade barriers can solve this growing problem.

Eventually the almighty Dollar will take a death plunge and with the world awash in Dollar denominations, who knows where that will lead. The bottom line though is that CNBC can make excuse after excuse, year after year, but the gig is up. The clock has run out on the shell games. From here on out only the real deal can stand and it’s been so long since we saw the real deal, I’m not sure we’d even recognize it.

TWO WEEKEND COMMENTS

Ahhh, politics and a mixture of truth. In the last week, George W. has managed to take the steam out of the Democrats strategy. Instead of talking about the falling stock market (my second comment), corporate corruption, and social issues, the talk of the times is about Iraq, war, and the U.N.

I imagine the Democrats are sorry they encouraged Bush to get U.N. approval because he took it to their underbelly and exposed the U.N. for what they are- the second version of the defunct League Of Nations. They have no teeth, they have no courage, and without the U.S., they are really rudderless. Good, bad, or indifferent (and it’s probably a mix of all three), the U.S. is still the moral courage of the world.
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This is the third year in a row that the stock market has tanked. Once thought an impossible feat, it’s now becoming a cold, hard reality. The total loss of ALL the U.S. stocks (The Wilshire 6,000) so far since the peak in Janaury of 2000 is 52% (a loss of $7 billion plus). This year so far, the Nasdaq is down 34%, the S&P500 is down 22%, and the Dow is down 17%! Ouch! Trfiple ouch!!!

But the economy is not going to be the issue. Bush will direct our attention to the war and if that issue holds, the Republicans could hold the House and take back the Senate, and change the face of America and the world for years to come. What the Republicans could accomplish in two years of controlling both houses would impact economic and social life for decades. Just the issue of setting in conservative judges would be revolutionary in itself.

FROM IGNORANCE TO PARANOIA!

If you wanted some NEWS today, Fox and a lot of the other stations were not the place to tune in. All you could get was repeat after repeat of the same old dribble. Three guys were headed to Miami to blow it up and 9-13 would be far more important in history than 9-11. Yeah, yeah.

Now, while I cannot argue with what the woman did in reporting what she had over heard, I can fault the media for their constant hounding and trying to make a story where there is none. Isn’t the war with Iraq still in the news?

I’ve subscribed to the theory that ANY TRUTH taken to an EXTREME is HERESY! I had never thought about it in the context of news reporting- until now.

So, it looks like the connecting highway from East Florida to West Florida was closed all day Friday due to a hoax. But, it was stupidity that caused a flight steward to turn a flight from Houston to Dallas around because what was thought to be a knife in someone’s pocket was actually a folded comb. I mean if this person has such great eye sight to see in a pocket, why couldn’t they see it was a comb? Why didn’t they ask the man what it was?

And why are we bringing a plane down because someone was shaving their body in the bathroom? I thought the bathroom was private. The only prohibition was that you couldn’t smoke in the lavatories. Hello!

Then there were the 1,000 cell phones on a ship in the port of Houston that was supposedly on the way to al-Qaeda. NOT! I’m assuming this too shall pass. But, paranoia has more victims than ignorance, or are they one in the same?

BACK TO THE MARKETS- ECONOMY

Well, I’ve been focusing on the 9-11 anniversary events and the inevitable war for the last few days, so let me take a moment and comment on Wall Street and the economy. Every time things look like they are going to tank (big time) I get an e-mail from hyper-new economy-technology guru, Michael Murphy. He, like many others, have their reputations (however much is left) bent on trying to revive the Nasdaq stocks.

Hey, it’s all over for Nasdaq other than another 3-500 point drop. The Dow is down 2,000 for the year and 4,000 for the last couple of years. The Wilshire has lost more than 50% of it’s value or about $7 TRILLION!

Greenspan did an about face yesterday saying that he was concered about DEBT when all he’s been doing is promoting the consumer spending binge. We’ve got more individual debt than any time in history. In fact, total debt is running 280% of GDP- worse than 1929! Bankruptcies are increasing and residential home foreclosures recently got headlines for their staggering increase.

Corporations are not only in debt but they’re about to all be nothing but junk! Richard Russell recently pointed out that in 1979, sixty stocks earned a AAA rating. In 1999 only 21 stocks earned that rating. And what about today? Eight!

Unfortunately, we’ll be paying the price for the Greenspan-Clinton hey-day years for years yet to come. The bottom is still not in sight. Or, should I say keep your powder dry because CASH will be KING one day soon.

STRENGTH & A QUESTION

As I watched Bush attend three ceremonies at three location today, I could see an inner strength building. A patriotic zeal was built at the Pentagon. In the fields of Pennsylvania you could see him standing alone knowing only he could make the decisions that needed to be made- even if the world was against him. In New York, he touched and hugged people who built his heart and soul for the job ahead.

When he comes to the nation tonight and when he addresses the U.N. tomorrow his speech will be filled with power and an inner strength. I don’t know if it was planned this way or just fate. Whatever it is, 9-11 has not only defined his presidency but it is marking his place in history as tomorrow’s U.N. speech will.
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Now the questions. What nation has a size a little less than Delaware and a population a little more than Montana. What nation sits on 5% of the world’s natural gas reserves and enough oil to pump for decades, keeping them wealthy. What nation is 95% Muslim with only 1% of it’s land arable? What nation has a capitol named Doha?

The reason you need to know those questions is because that is where Tommy Franks is probably heading right after the U.N. speech to handle to Iraq war. That nation is QATAR. It will be in the news a lot soon!

PRETEND ALL IS NORMAL?

The White House is encouraging everyone to “act normally” on this anniversary date of 9-11. You know, fly on a plane, go shopping: go deeper into debt, and otherwise be seen in public.

Ahh, our beloved government, how hypocricy abounds! So, where was our VP- Dick Cheney Tuesday night? Why didn’t he show up for the public speech? Why did he send a taped message? And, why is he in “hiding” at some undisclosed location?

Why have we closed some 14 bases, posts, or embassy’s world-wide? Seems to me as though our government is into that old expression, “do as I SAY and not as I DO”.

Nonetheless, the world is no longer the world we once knew. This past year has changed everything. And while we may want to pretend that all is well and everything is normal, it’s NOT! Wars are just beginning. Unfortunately most of those wars will pit the U.S. against others: like Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China, the U.N., and of course, radical Islam (which seems to be everywhere).

No, things are NOT normal and they may not be ever again. But, in one sense, that could be the GOOD NEWS!

THE NEW GOD!

It seems that man cannot get enough of the “god-building” exercise. It’s no wonder that the first two commandments deal with this “image-building” thing. Why two commandments along the same thing? Why are they 1st and 2nd in the ten? Duh!

If we’re not melting down gold and making calves, snakes, or some sort of molten image, we’re just not satisfied. One thing that is obvious is that we’re in the process of making a new image for ourselves- a new God. And that god would be….?

The United Nations!

It seems as though nothing can be done these days without the approval of the United Nations. And, who are these guys anyway? And, where’d we get the idea that they were UNITED? Is this to be the new Tower of Babel, the new International one-world government? The answer is YES for most of the world. And, is “tyranny of the minority” the way to go? You do realize that a majority of the UN with 20% of the population could tell 80% of the world’s population what to do.

Now, the Vatican has checked in with an opinion. A spokesman for the Vatican says the U.S. cannot do anything without U.N. approval. And from WHERE does he get his edict? Where has the U.N. received it’s authority? And of course the European Union is backing the U.N. Europe is always against whatever the U.S. is for unless they are being threatened by a foreign enemy and then they want our help. Does anyone in France remember WWII?

Bush goes before the U.N. on Thursday and it will be interesting to say the least. Will he BOW before this new god or will he submit to His? Ahh, the excitment about the imponderables of life.

PS. Of course Scott Ritter is now on Iraq’s side but in 1998 he was on America’s side. Remember him? You will soon enough as he’ll be the new poster-child for the U.N. in the Iraq discussions.

REMEMBERING 9-11

This week is shaping up to be a monumental one. Emotions will flow, ceremonies will abound, and the trauma will be relived over and over again. Maybe we can get that “closure” that everyone talks about and move on.

It’s not a matter of forgetting. The destruction and carnage was too great and too many things have been set in motion that are not reversable. It’s just possible that 9-11 will be the most remembered date ever- unless something worse happens soon.

In addition to the incredible news coverage of 9-11, we’ll hear stories without end regarding war with Iraq. Bush will go before the United Nations this week and Tony Blair will be working the phones and the press 24/7.

The importance of the war debate is not lost on our Congress, and especially on the Democrats. Everyone is going to want their day in the sun (before a camera). If this were not an election year, you might expect some sanity, but with nearly 400 Congressmen up for election, the spin doctors will be out in force.

Did I mention the stock market? It’s warnings season and with the market opening up late Wednesday, talk of war, and a bear market environment, anything can happen (most not good).

So, as we remember 9-11 this week, do so with your feet firmly planted on terra firma and your head on straight, otherwise, you just might lose sight of reality.

PS. Of course if you’re a Houston Texan fan, you’re oblivious to all of the above.

DESTROYING THE WORLD?

The case is now being amde that Saddam has the capability to destroy the world in 3 years if not now. It is also widely rumored that Saddam has enough chemicals to make 200 tonnes of VX, an incredibly powerful nerve gas.

It’s not that he would deploy them, but that he would use them in a way to hold the world hostage to the threat of their use. The Scotsman Magazine has reported that all Saddam needs is a little enriched uranium and he’ll have the atomic bomb that he has so long coveted.

Scotland yard claims that Saddam is on the verge of developing drones that can carry chemicals to most European nations. And, Bush will go to the United Nations next week urging (if not demanding) quick action to DISARM Iraq. Note that there has been a subtle change in terms. It’s no longer a matter of INSPECTIONS but DISARMAMENT.

Bush is now on the page that says it’s too late for inspections. The Wshington Post is claiming that Bush will go it alone if the world does not accept his pleas but that he will not go it alone without the approval of Congress.

Therein lies the major crux of this debate. Putting the issue before Congress 55 days before our national elections makes war an electoral issue, and puts Democrats in an interesting position. The wild card for how American politics will develop lies in how the war issue is perceived by the American public over the next 55 days.

It’s more than whom you’re voting for in November. It’s how will the world be impacted by that vote.

WHO’S WAITING ANYWAY?

As I’ve been saying for months, Bush & Co. will be at war by the end of September. He’s now going to Congress for “approval”. He’s going before the U.N. on the 12th. And, he’s got Tony Blair coming in tomorrow. So, doesn’t it look like it’s GOING to happen? Or, is it ALREADY happening?

You don’t telegraph you’re getting ready to go to war. Bush isn’t so stupid as to tell Saddam WHEN he’s coming in. What man is going to walk up to a guy and say, I’m going to hit you in the mouth in ten seconds, get ready? Duh!

Is there any doubt that we’ve had troops on the ground already? Is there any doubt that we’ve been working with the opposition to take out the current regime? Hasn’t Bush given the CIA, and anyone who wants, the GREEN LIGHT to find and kill Saddam?

And then what about the report yesterday in the Telegraph.com, UK, reporting that some 100 jets attacked Iraq’s western defense installation units? If true (and there are several confirming reports), then it would have been the largest attack in four years. Word is that the bombings were done to knock out Iraq’s eyes allowing our helicopters carrying special forces to slide in undetected.

The H3 installation unit was knocked out and it was reportedly a key from Turkey-Jordan to Bagdad. So, while Bush talks to Congress, the U.N. and the world, I think the war is already under way. Since, Saddam is the Mr. Evil or at least a “mini-me evil” why wait? Who’s waiting?

NOW IT GETS REAL INTERESTING!

The Congressmen who opened their mouths, complained about this and that, and generally judged what Bush was doing on Iraq stand with their pants down! The Emperor (in this case Congressmen) Has No Clothes!

On their second day back from the holiday, Bush takes away all of their fire-power and brings their leaders in for a little face-to-face. And, he sets the record straight in such a way that hardly any antagonist could find room to wiggle.

Bush said that he would consult Congress before going to war. Bush said that he would go to the U.N. (Sept. 12th) and make his case- not ask their approval. And, he said Tony Blair would be coming to Camp David this Saturday as the first of many heads of states to be courted and informed about Saddam’s shenanigans.

All of this could-should be wrapped up by the end of the month.

Talk about taking the steam out of all the anti-war rhetoric and Bush-bashing. I am sure Bush will present a formidable case and what Congressman wants to vote against “evil” just prior to the fall elections?

So, now it starts to get really interesting. Forget what’s happening on Wall Street, the real show is in D.C. now.

WHAT’S HAPPENING

It seems like every “start” gets a sneak attack. Remember how 2001 was going to reverse 2000? Remember how 2002 would make up for 2001? Remember how the summer rally would save us? Remember how September would be the turn-around and not follow the normally down Sept. blues? Well, what’s this first day of the month doing DOWN 355 points on the Dow?

Well, you can continue to believe all the “BULL” from CNBC and a hundred Wall Street analysts, or you can believe what your 401k statements say. Of course your stock portfolios are historical in nature and don’t tell you how BAD it might really get. No one wants to believe 900 Nasdaq, let alone 900 Dow! But how about considering just the next couple of weeks ahead.

We’ve got a sick economy. We have 9-11 phobias coming back next week. We have stocks that are still grossly over priced. We have the potential for war right around the corner. We have the corporate warning season ready to begin and believe me, it’s not going to be a pretty picture. In fact, most will begin to back off of their 2003 projections as well as the 4Q 2002. The world is in the grips of a major deflationary spiral thanks to 1.3 BILLION Chinese who will work for 1/10th what American workers will.

I could go on but I’m depressing myself. Forget that we’re buying cars, houses, and “things” and thereby building debt that cannot be repaid. Last month, spending was at an eight month high while income was dropping. So, how long do you think that can last?

What’s happening? We’re paying the fiddler for all the “fiddling” that was done in the 90’s. It was a wild party and the damage done to the economy was staggering. Many CEO’s are now going off to jail to pay for the shenanigans of the 90’s. It’s just nature’s cycle and man’s denial: that’s what happening!

PRAGMATIST OR IDEALIST?

Does it have to be either-or? Can one be a pragmatic idealist? I think the answer to that question is undoubtedly YES when it comes to #43- George W. When you put the two together you have made the case for why I think we’ll be at war with Iraq, or someone, by the end of this month. It’s a position I’ve taken for 3-4 months now and I’m just four weeks away from the reality or lack thereof of my prediction.

If you followed Bush as Governor of Texas you saw that his policies were far from being only conservative. He put together a team of varied interests. As President, he’s veered way off the course of conservative patterns by voting against free trade in the steel issue. He also ventured way off course in protecting and adding massive federal guarantees to the farming interests. He’s been to Pennsylvania eleven times in his short tenure as he seems bent on not losing that state in the 2004 campaign. I go could on but the point is that he DOES what NEEDS to be done to survive political life.

The point here is that it would serve no practical point to attack Iraq after the elections. Everything says he should do it PRIOR to the elections. All of this talk about a November 30th strike date is just “dis-information”.

On the other hand, Bush is an idealist to a fault. His war or “terrorism” is case number one. His statements against the “axis of evil” is but another example. But, one need not go beyond his religious beliefs to make the case for his idealism. So, how could he not take on evil?

So, my bet is that when you mix the two paradigms together, it’s hard to find a reason to think he won’t take on Saddam BEFORE the elections. Yes, it could happen in October but he needs to rally the nation early on. After all, practically speaking, to lose the House would be to make his next two years hell. To hold the House and win back the Senate would be a deal made in heaven. Might I say IDEAL?

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