WAR & POLITICS!
October 16, 2003
That huge book by Leo Tolstoy called War & Peace if written today would be entitled War & Politics. That’s all we’re going to hear about between now and November 4th (with a side-bar to the D.C. sniper story: caught or not).
But then one has to ask the question, is there a difference between War & Politics? Yes. One is domestic (politics) and the other is foreign (war). Or, can that actually be the case these days? Remember the days when it was so simple? The bad guys lived on the other side of the pond and now they on the other side of the street. We call them “sleeper-cells”. But, alas I digress.
I think everyone knows that we’re eventually going to war with Saddam: sooner than later. It has to happen because of the philosophies of two men. Bush is an idealist and a man on a mission (not all bad). Saddam is a maniacal dictator who wants to own all the oil in the Mideast, get the reputation of being the Arab who took down Israel, and be perceived as Washington’s most feared foe.
Now to politics. Over the next three weeks I’ll try not to bore you, but to get some bead on the reality of the makeup of the next Congress. It’s really the Senate that’s the question mark. And, after you trade out current situations, it looks like it’s all going to come down to two states, where there is no incumbent: New Hampshire and North Carolina. Today, I’d say the Republicans will pick up one seat making it a 50-50 adventure-quagmire and with Cheney (someone keep him alive) the tie-breaker; you know what that means. Anyway, more about War & Politics later. Maybe one day, peace!
IS HE OR ISN’T THEY?
October 15, 2003
Speculation and sensationalism are the order of the day for news sources, especially those 24-hour cable outlets that are looking for “filler”. And do they ever have filler.
Fox particularly parades one ex-FBI agent after ex-police homocide agent after current forensic expert, after well, you’ve got the picture. The nation is fixed on wondering just WHO this guy is and there seems to be one thing that everyone has stayed away from until recently. Is he a Mideastern terrorist or just your local garden-variety one?
Ahh, but now that we have several witnesses that say he is dark-skinned or olive-skinned, the question is starting to be asked. Is he or isn’t he a Muslim, Arab, terrorist?
I think we’ll know that question soon and I think the fact that the military is getting involved says more than we’re just helping out the state and local governments. But then, lest I get into the speculation game, let’s just leave it to a few days down the road when we catch these guys (note the use of the plural which brings up yet another question). 
DUMB & DUMBER
October 14, 2003
I didn’t see the movie as I really don’t like Carey, but it’s a scenario that’s played out every day and sometimes on a large scale.
First, it’s dumb for al-Qaeda to attack America but it’s even dumber (I know that’s bad English but it fits the analogy) for them to alienate the rest of the world by blowing up their boats and buildings. I mean, why not have the whole world against America? Why have the whole world against you?
Then there’s American business that’s been building it’s newest manufacturing plants overseas due to the lower wage factor. But how about the terrorism costs? How about those executive kidnappings? And, how about those West Coast longshoremen strikes that keep all those manufactured goods sitting in boats in the Pacific ocean? Maybe having plants outside America isn’t all it was cranked up to be.
Then there’s all those mutual funds. You know, the guys you gave your savings and 401 (k) funds to so they could gamble it away on defunct tech stocks. It now appears it was dumb to do it but even dumber to pay them $75 billion to lose your money for you. You see, mutual funds are like attorneys in one respect. They get paid (fees) whether you win or lose and last year, while thousands of mutual funds were going under, their managers collected $75 billion in fees (BILLIONS).
I could go on but it sure appears to me that in these areas we’ve moved from dumb to dumber!
REMEMBER ALDOUS HUXLEY?
October 13, 2003
You have to go back to 1932 to find the year that he wrote the book, Brave New World. So, is the book now IN and is the title now OUT?
The bombings in Bali have rattled the “down-under” world. As long as it’s terrorism against the U.S., the U.N. isn’t concerned. The bombing of a French oil tanker last week now has France (who has a seat on the Security Council) rethinking their stance against Iraq.
The D.C. sniper may not be al-Qaeda but if it’s not they are serving the same principle by being a role-model for other such action. One man in the D.C. area (or two) has taken the city hostage. Can’t we assume their will be others in other cities?
What was once upon a time a peaceful world is now a very dangerous one. Has Huxley’s Brave New World now become the Fearful New World?
NOT THE LETTERMAN TOP 10!
October 11, 2003
The question is not are we going to war but when. If I were Saddam, I’d take the exit package that’s being offered. I’m sure he has many millions in Switzerland and-or Mecca. But, just in case he isn’t getting it, let me give you my TOP TEN reasons that it’s all over for him except the shouting and doing.
#10 Congress just gave the loaded gun to George Bush.
#9 Leaflets are now being dropped on the military warning them to give up soon or else.
#8 We’re shipping out hundreds of Arabic interrogators next month.
#7 Our troops are being given anthrax vaccinations.
#6 The DOD just ordered an amazing 270,000 four ounce bottles of sunscreen to be delivered by Oct. 30th. Hmmmm.
#5 We’re sending explosive-ordinance disposal experts to the region to handle the booby-traps.
#4 We’ve ordered the ARG Marines in Kosovo to pack up and head to Saudia Arabia months ahead of their normal departure schedule.
#3 Our MEU (Marine Expeditionary Unit) is now training in Kuwait.
#2 We now have two aircraft carriers and twenty assorted ships just off the Iraqi coast.
#1 And, for the really, really big one (an inside tip). My twenty year old son who is in the army reserves has NOT been told he’s being
called up! There you go!
PS. My son just had his blood screened for DNA, was given shots, was offered death insurance, and was told to be “ready”. That of course doesn’t mean he’ll be called into active duty. Right!
Are you ready the tea leaves Saddam?
THE DASCHLE FLIP-FLOP
October 10, 2003
I just happened to turn to the TV at the time Daschle was telling the world why he was supporting Bush on the Iraq resolution. Really? Wasn’t he dead-set against it a week ago? None of the reasons he listed was because he had been out-flanked by his House counter-part (Gephardt) who also is running for President in 2004: not to mention Sen. Joseph Lieberman.
It’s interesting to see so many 2004 candidates trying to stake-out their positions for a run at the presidency two years from now. It’s not just Bush that they’re concerned, about but Al Gore as well. Should a person go more liberal than Gore? Is that possible?
Will the nation be thinking more conservatively two years from now? Should the strategy be to stay to the right of Gore and left of Bush? So many options? So many candidates, and only 24 months to campaign. What’s a potential candidate to do?
Back to my comment of two days ago. I am sure glad there’s ONE candidate that doesn’t seem to change his position with the “poll winds”. There are two others whom I would put in that category also: Joseph Liberman and John McCain. It’s comforting to know that there is still some stability in the political arena. For eight years (under William Jefferson) it appeared that the “flip-flop” was IN to stay. Bush may alter his style as we get closer to 2004 but at least for the first half of his candidacy, Bush has stayed the course. Like it or not, you know where he stands. Refreshing!
SO WHAT’S A $8.5 TRILLION LOSS?
October 9, 2003
You read the headlines, you see the numbers, and somehow they are meaningless. We’re talking some serious stuff here and it’s going to get worse. This is the 4Q and it was just ten days ago that the Wall Street crowd was telling to to jump on board as October would be the month to take off. Maybe they meant “fall-off”.
So far in nine calendar days or seven trading days of the 23 (30%), the Dow has lost over 300 points (and that’s with October 1st being UP 347 points). If this trend continues, the Dow will lose 1,000 points for October. So, how’s your mutual fund doing?
Merrill Lynch is fighting a class action lawsuit where one of it’s funds went down 90%. Picky, picky. Didn’t they know there was a RISK? The complaintants only want $1 billion from Merrill. When the Nas-dog dropped 75%, people started to run to the blue chips and now they are tanking, and I’m talking serious diving.
Consider these five big-dog corporations: AOL-Time Warner, Cisco, Home Depot, Intel, and IBM. Everyone of them have lost at least 50% of their value since 2000 and some as much as 86%. Did I mention that Ford is near bankruptcy with a staggering $120 billion in long term debt?
Oh yeah, what’s an $8.5 TRILLION loss like? It’s more than the combined total GDP of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and India. That’s what the total U.S. stock market has lost in the last two years.
HE HAS SPOKEN- AGAIN!
October 8, 2003
I’m not sure if you heard the president’s message last night on Iraq. If you don’t have cable TV you didn’t because the BIG NETWORKS (otherwise known as NITWITS) didn’t think that the vote and reasons for it, “A Declaration of War”, was all that important- as though we do it every day.
Could it be because they have a liberal, Democratic bent and didn’t want to give a conservative, Republican president any more powder for his gun? Duh!
But when you look at it, he didn’t say anything new- which is SOMETHING NEW! As Dick Morris said this morning on Fox News, Bush gave the same speech last night that he gave right after 9-11 and therein we find the speech amazing.
You see Bush has been and is CONSISTENT, something that most politicians have never dreamed of, let alone done. It’s a compliment to say that a man, especially a politician, is not changing his principles regardless of what the press, polls, or United Nations think.
Somewhere there’s security in a man not being a reed in the wind. Somewhere there’s comfort in someone being the “same yesterday, today, and tomorrow”. So maybe the NITWORKS had it right. Bush didn’t have anything new to say so why broadcast it?
BAGHDAD’S BUTCHER & BUSH!
October 7, 2003
It’s down to a chess game between two men: the fate of many men. In all actuality, it has been proposed that they have a duel. If it’s mano-y-mano, I’m all for it! I know Bush can take him!
This is to be the week that Bush gets approval from Congress for some sort of action, which will prod the United Nations to get tough, which will eventually win some other nations over to our side.
There will be a lot of criticizing the hawks, as there was before Hitler took over Europe. Have we not learned that you can’t appease madmen? It seems that there are some who can’t get over the smoking gun concept (they’ve been watching too many mystery movies). They want to know where the proof is. Wasn’t two smoking towers enough? Do we have to have some “radiating buildings” (nuked type) before we say enough is enough?
The problem as I see it is that we Americans see the world through our “freedom-colored” glasses. Iraq isn’t really a nation. It’s like Afghanistan. It’s a hodge-podge of ethnic renegades who hate each other and wherein only a brutal dictator could keep them together- by fear: enter the Butcher!
Iraq is basically three nations: Kurds, Shiite, and Sunni. Under them are some 150 tribes who hate each other’s guts. Are you getting the Afghanistan picture?
My take is that we arm Turkey and let them take it back. Iraq, after all, used to belong to Turkey in the days of the glorious Ottoman Empire. I have faith that the Turks could be as equally oppressive as the Butcher of Baghdad and Bush likes them.
THE WILD WILD- EAST!
October 6, 2003
You’ve probably seen or at least heard about the movie. Most of the world’s impression of America is about cowboys, horses, and guns. It seems as though the “East” wants to get in on the action,
This morning in the Far East, the NIKKEI dropped to a near 20 year low falling 339 points to end at 8,688. There was a day when the NIKKEI was over 40,000! Banks are about ready to implode and forget about that phrase that the Sun never sets there.
In the Near East, Afghan rebels are still fighting with anyone that they can, Karzai is lucky to be alive, and UBL has given us a new tape- says Al-Jezeera.
Coming closer to the Mideast, Israel is on the attack again and 20 Palestinians died this morning in an attack. Iraq is still trying to shoot down our planes and all the world is wondering if the “Madman of Baghdad” is going to try and nuke us all.
So, be it Far, Near, or Middle East, much of what happens in America these days depends upon the Wild, Wild East!
WHAT NEW COUP?
October 6, 2003
If it weren’t so serious, it would be laughable. Just when you think Venezuela can get back to business or at least have some calm, another dumb act occurs.
The latest stupid act was having the military search the house of an 83 year old foreign minister and claim that he was going to be the new president of Venezuela.
I know wee all make mistakes; however, it makes no sense that an 83 year old man is stupid enough to have large maps in his house of straqtegies for ousting Chavez as well as the names and addresses of his co-conspirators.
As for me, I don’t think Enrique Tejera is any more guilty of a coup attempt than Vicente Fox of Mexico. Unfortunately, paranoia reigns supreme, and desperate people do desperate things. Until Chavez tries to make peace in stead of dividing the nation, it’s only going to get worse and this second week of October should prove to be worse than the first week.
Coup? I don’t think so. At least not by Enrique Tejera!
DOUBLE DIPPING- OR SIPPING?
October 5, 2003
On Septemebr 24th (it’s in the archives if you want to check) I said that investors should get ready for another round of LIES! For three years you’ve been lied to about how the market would rebound any day. Knowing that we were ready to go into the 4Q (and ending one of the worst quarters in stock market history), the rhetoric would start anew that October would be the time to buy (again). When was it NEVER a time to BUY: according to those who SELL you stock.
And you know what, October 1st started off with a BANG as the Dow was up 347 points for the biggest gain since July 24th. But then, but then there were three consecutive days of drops which more than wiped out the October 1st increase. When you add the triple digit Monday loss to the week, the week ended DOWN 172! Here we go again.
As a quick review. The Dow is down 2,613 for the year (just this year, not the last three) and the Nasdaq is down 767! Wow!
Since the talk of a BOTTOM has gotten boring and worthless over 33 months of the analysts looking for their you-know-what, the new talk about the “double-dip” was warranted. Will we or won’t we see “another drop or recession”?
Say what? Another dip? Give me a break, the recession has never let up and in fact it has continued for nearly three years now. I know that there are “fancy” definitions for recessions, but the markets are saying that this ONE & ONLY continuing recession isn’t dipping again, it’s just continuing the move down. Maybe we should ask what the analysts are SIPPING!
WHO IS COUNTING ANYWAY?
October 3, 2003
Ahh, why are Bush and Rumsfeld so picky about this “unfettered” inspection thing? Saddam is allowing them to have 100% complete access to 90% of the nation (the desert).
They can also look at any schools, buildings, or warehouses, with advance notice (presumably a notice long enough to remove any evidence).
And what about those private palaces? I wonder what is “private” about them since Saddam does not sleep in them or visit them. Maybe it’s because there’s things he doesn’t want anyone to see (a good definition of private).
There are some eight palaces taking up about as much land as the State of Delaware and encompassing more than 1,000 buildings. I mean we’re not talking just one “palace” building per site.
My take is that it doesn’t matter what’s finally agreed upon because ten years of history shows that Saddam changes his mind about as often as he changes sleeping locations, which I understnad is every other night.
THE SHOW ME STATE!
October 2, 2003
Me? I was born in Hot Springs, Arkansas but I wasn’t there long enough to know much about sows; moving north at six months of age. It was then Shelbina, Independence, Kansas City, and Neosho Missouri for the next, or really first thirteen years of my life. I even returned to Missouri for a couple of years in my early thirties.
Thanks for the bio Ernie but, what’s the point?
Well, I learned that Missouri is the “Show Me” state. They really do Show Me The Money. And, come November 5th, they may very well “Show Bush The Judges”! You see, IF (and I admit that’s a very big two letter word) all the other Senatorial races stay the same. And IF (there it is again), Jean Carnahan loses her bid (she’s filling in for her husband who died- and trailing), then IMMEDIATELY on the next day, she’s OUT of office and the Senate returns to Republican leadership.
Trent Lott is licking his chops. George Bush is lining up his judges, and you’d see more work done out of the Senate in two months than any time in history. So, watch what’s happening in Missouri. Take a gander at the SHOW ME state that will SHOW America just how two months might set a record for judicial nominess being approved.
PS. And you question if political donations will pour into Missouri over the next month? It’s Show Me The Money time as well!
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