DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES!
November 30, 2003
Yes, the stock market has Wall Street giddy and they are encouraging everyone to jump in head first. Don’t get left behind! But the real truth is that this is just a bear market rally before the market heads south again.
I don’t know where I read this analogy but it’s generic enough to not not border on plagarism. What do you think would happen IF it were announced that a new technique had been found to enable producers to mine gold at ZERO cost and to produce as much as we wanted at will? Duh! The price of gold would fall through the floor: $1 gold anyone?
Okay, so what about the concept wherein we print MONEY at no cost and as much as we want? Right, and one day the dollar will fall through the floor and be worthless. Last week, Fed governor Ben Bernanke said, “The U.S. government has the technology, called the printing press, that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” The U.S. dollar is a ticking time bomb that will one day explode! It won’t be UBL or al-Qaeda that does us in, but our own greed.
We are building a future INFLATIONARY economic bomb as the Fed fights DEFLATION. The massive U.S. debt (corporate and individual), an $8 TRILLION dollar stock market plunge, and a Chinese low cost manufacturing ability has the Fed more than worried. So, while they fight the immediate problem (deflation) to stave off a double-dip economic drubbing, they are setting us up for a futuristic inflationary bubble that will act like a whip-lash that few can survive.
As Richard Russell has said, “Alan Greenspan is the greatest inflationist in all U.S. history. He and his gang of misguided central bank, ego driven, and power-driven men believe they can control the natural forces of the free market. They for a short time but eventually the compressed spring, which is gold, will ‘un-spring’ and gold will rise spectacularly.”
There’s always an answer for the wise; however, that precludes tens of millions of investors and we will all have to share the human misery that greed and ego have created- coming dire circumstances.
NATIONALIZE THAT!
November 29, 2003
If you’ve not seen the movie, you’ve probably heard about it. And, if you liked it and wanted more, help is on the way. The movie- Analyze This! The sequel- Analyze That (opening in December).
Where we’re headed as a people and a culture is more to movies like the two above and not enough of movies like, The Emerors Club. Where we are also headed is to more socialization and less entrepreneuralism. It’s coming down to the fact that IF you can’t make it on your own, ask the government to help out. Such thinking has us on the brink of “entitlement-itis”. It’s a word that I just made up but a concept that grows each decade.
So, here’s one for you to watch. Will we eventually nationalize the airlines? With United on the brink of bankruptcy (losing $8 million a day), and hardly anyone making money, let’s “nationalize” the airlines. Since 1970, the top fourteen airlines have seldom made a profit. In fact eight of the fourteen have declared bankruptcy and two are no longer around: Eastern and Pan Am. Continental has declarede bankruptcy TWICE! So what’s a nation to do when a corporation (or industry) cannot make it? Have the government bail them out. It worked for Chrysler, so let’s try it with United, American, or Continental and if that doesn’t work “Nationalize That” (the whole industry). It may take a few years, but I’m afraid it’s where we’re headed in more things than just the airlines.
A June 20, 1676 PROCLAMTION!
November 27, 2003
We hereby set apart a day of solemn Thanksgiving and praise to God for His goodness and favour, many particulars of which mercy might be instanced….offer up our bodies and souls as a living and acceptable service unto God by Jesus Christ.
The above is a quote from the governing council of Charlestown, Mass. that began the historicity of Thansgiving as we KNEW it. There’s just one problem. We no longer KNOW the day as we used to. I mean has the ACLU seen this? Has Planned Parenthood gotten ahold of this proclamation? Madeline Murray O’Hare must be turning over in her bed- if she had one. We’ve come a long way baby- mostly down the wrong road.
I’m afraid we’ve forgotten WHY we celebrate Thanksgiving but if you’d like to test your skills, log on to the following site and take the quiz.
www.familyeducation.com/quiz/0,1399,1-3700,00.html
Thanksgiving is a time to be thankful for so many things. I am thankful that I was born in America (with all it’s flaws). There are so many other places that would not have afforded me the lifestyle that good ol US of A does. I am thankful that I was born healthy and have lived so for nearly six decades. I am thankful mostly for my Creator, because like the Pilgrims of old who gave us this day to celebrate, He is the source of all things.
Very much like celebrating the Sabbath, a day of rest, it’s no longer a DAY but a PERSON! The New Testament came that we might not need man’s “blue-laws” and neither need we be legalistic about a day called Sunday. We can REST every day in the person of Jesus Christ. In like fashion, though we set aside a formal day and call it Thanksgiving, it’s EVERY DAY that we ought to be thankful! At least, that’s how I read the proclamation and consider life.
THE $$$ PROBLEMS AHEAD
November 26, 2003
There are a growing number of people who think we’ve begun a new BULL market rally. With the DOW up six straight weeks in a row, and with the normal end of the year coming up, everything appears to be a bed of roses. Oh, wait. Is that a thorn?
I would not be surprised to see the market slowly go up between now and the end of the year, but that would be the last breath, IF it does in fact happen. But on the other hand, I’d see it as more realistic for the market to go back down in December. You see, two things have kept this balloon in the air after the $8 TRILLION in air went out from the Nas-dog bubble.
Those two things have been consumer over-spending and the housing boom! But both are at the end of the run. In fact the consumer is more than tapped out. New car sales next year will be lousy, to say the least. And, home sales (new and used) will take a beating.
The public has so over-extended themselves that we’re on target for a record personal bankruptcy filings (on top of a record 1.45 million last year). The figures just came in for the 3Q 2002 and personal bankruptcy filings were up 12% over 3Q 2001.
People are up to their eye-balls in debt. It’s not just the normal credit card debt this go-round though: it’s home mortgage debt. Low interest rates, no down payments, 125% loans, and very lax lending policies have created a massive problem for 2003 and beyond. Mortgage deliquencies are up, homes going into foreclosures are at the highest rate in 30 years, and real estate prices are about to stall, then dive.
I wish I could put on a smiley face and say as the prophets of old did, “peace, peace, all is well with the world.” But, as they found out, as we will, it’s not the truth. Don’t get caught in the BEAR trap, and be reasonable with those credit cards come Christmas or you’ll wind up among the masses losing credit standing, home, and peace of mind. Believe me, there are many financial problems ahead because we have lived way beyond our means!
HE IS HISTORY, HISTORY SAYS
November 24, 2003
It’s simple. Saddam has to go, is going to go, and it’s just a matter of how. There are a lot of reasons why this is inevitable.
First of course is because the SON wants him out. I am talking #43, the son of the 41st president. Bush is a heat-seeking missle and when he locks on to something, he usually hits it.
The second is because there are a growing number of key nations who would love to be a part of dividing up the spoils of war- in this case, OIL! Russia and France are at the top of that list
We then have the domestic turmoil. What is not shown in the press is the hatred that exists for Saddam. I recently talked to a man who was born in Baghdad and he said that there was not one household that’s not been harmed by Saddam’s cruelty. Recent reports have also indicated thousands of people are lining up to get out of Iraq, ahead of the bombing. And, Saddam is letting anyone go who wants to, as long as they leave their resources behind.
Then there are the inspectors. They are armed with new technology, new rules, and they are going to find the goods.
But most importantly, Saddam will be ousted because of history. He is a liar. He is a madman. And, he has a personality and habits that will not allow him to change, and therein will be his ultimate downfall.
SAUDI SANCTIONS?
November 23, 2003
The headline news this weekend is that the FBI is investigating whether the Saudi’s were involved in putting money into the 9-11 attacks. Duh!
Hey, does anyone remember that 17 of the 19 suicide planners were Saudi? Is that an amazing statistical quirk or what? I mean who else would be funding them? While we have no conclusive evidence that Saudi Arabia actually funded them, what happens if we find out that they in fact did?
What’s the point of this search, time spent, and money poured into if when we’re through with the investigation, we do nothing? Is this just a PR plan? And if you think we’ll apply sanctions or a slap on the wrist if we discover they were involved, then you think wrongly. We live in a very complex world where we find strange bedfellows, with even more strange rules of operation.
THE REAL DEAL NEARS
November 23, 2003
On Wednesday the U.N. finally start looking at what might be found in Iraq. There will only be 18 inspectors on the job and I am sure all will go well. It won’t be for weeks until we are fully staffed with 100+ inspectors.
So, what will we find come Wednesday as the real deal we’ve been talking about for years begins? The answer- NOTHING! It’s going to take some time for the cat-n-mouse game to get really intense. And then the really important date is December 8. You see, that’s the date that Saddam must declare WHAT he has. Of course he’s going to calim he has nothing in hopes we find nothing because if he declares nothing and we find something, lights out!
One thing we need to keep in mind though is this concept called “politics”. Where is chief inspector Blix on all of this? Is he trying to placate Saddam, the U.N., the U.S., or France? No man operates within a vacuum. Soon we’ll find out who is putting butter on his bread.
DIE ANOTHER DAY?
November 22, 2003
Ahhh, it’s BOND-ing time. Bond, James Bond is back for the 20th film over 40 years. Bond has become one of the longest-running icons of movie fame. As the film comes out today, I can’t help but put the title of the film in context of what’s going on in Nigeria today.
Lagos, Nigeria is hosting the Miss World Pageant. My first question has to be WHY NIGERIA? Muslims are of course against showing any kind of “skin”. The orthodox Muslims are at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to what a woman wears.
So, with these theological extremes, Muslims started killing Christians. Then Christians started killing Muslims. Now remember, they are doing all this in the name of god. The latest toll stands at 100+ killed, more than 500 wounded.
Tell me, isn’t there something better to die for than a Ms. World Pageant? Couldn’t we just embrace the James Bond movie and “die another day: in a more worthy cause?
MILITARY BUILD-UP
November 20, 2003
I am sure that Saddam knows far more about what our military is doing than 90% of most Americans- for whatever good that will do. One thing I like about Bush is that he is full-steam ahead, unless he sees a reason to stop. Looking at Saddam’s record of non-compliance, Bush is moving ahead “as-though” the war was ON!
My son, who is a reservist and in line to be called up soon got the message this weekend. Making his regular monthly obligation to the reserve unit was muich different this month. Instead of the old camaflouge colors, all the vehicles were painted desert sand. Hmmm. What could this mean?
It means that Bush is sending a message to Saddam that he’s not talk. After eight years of Clinton-eze, the world is facing a new paradigm. Instead of lobbing a missle into some empty tents in Afghanistan and a factory in another Arabic community, Bush is “doing the stuff”.
He is lining up the troops, getting the logistics in order, talking to the coalition nations, and shipping the needed arsenals to the Mideast. Today, we got word out of Washington that the natioanl guard and reservists might be called up on a day’s notice.
America has the power, might, and resources. America spends $325 BILLION annually on defense. You might not be able to relate to that figure so let’s put it this way. America spends more money on defense that China, Russia, all of Europe, Central, and South Asia combined.
So here’s the message Saddam. Bush does not trust you and he’s just waiting for you to mess up, as we all know you will. You can take Saddam out of the Clinton years, but you can’t take the evil dictator out of the man. So, the only option that’s left is to take the man out of the country- or worse. A word to the wise!
THREE MORE DEFEATS!
November 19, 2003
You just had that feeling that it wasn’t going to be a good day for the Democrats on Tuesday. Don Siegelman finally decided to concede in the Alabama governors race to Republican-elect Bob Riley. That was a clue.
The Democrats thought that they could get the Homeland Security Bill knocked out for the session or at least change it so that the House might decide to forget about a Conference Committee and not bother. So, Tom Daschle in one of his last acts as Majority Leader, asked for a vote that would alter the bill substantially. Loss number one came on a close 47-52 vote.
So, it was on to strategy # 2 which was to affect the wording in another way that might kill it. That vote lost by an even worse margain 73-26.
Okay, how about a long-winded
debate that might be discouraging? As the Senators decided they wanted to get home and either enjoy life or to lick-wounds, by a vote of 83-16 the Senators decided to end debate. As I write this late Tuesday afternoon, the actual final vote is now all but decided. After three losses in the vote (each one getting worse), it’s time for the Democrats to wake up to the new reality that in the next two years, it’s going to be much different than it was for the past two years.
Maybe they could even keep the Senate seat in Louisiana that’s up for grabs in December- maybe!
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PS. The Senate just approved the bill 90-9. It seems that after voting NO many times, most Democrats didn’t want to have it on their record that they opposed the President. Ahh, politics!
TWO DIFFERENT VIEWS
November 18, 2003
Ritalin, Codeine, Demerol, Meprobamate, Methadone, Librium, Gamma Globulin, and an assortment of barbiturates sounds like an inventory of your local drug store; however, it’s just the daily meal for John F. Kennedy.
The opening of his medical records that have been protected up til now, has caused a stir in political circles and of course, I expect we’ll hear from a host of libertarians crying foul! There are some that think they have the right to know how many times a public figure picks his nose, spanks his kids, or such nonsense.
How much are we entitled to know about a public figure? And were the pictures of Kennedy playing football and the portrayal of him as healthy deception? Was he capable of handling the Cuban crisis and other major controversies? Wasn’t the fact that he took anxiety drugs proof of his inability to handle the office of president?
Ahh, armchair quarterbacks! People who love to talk and not do. As for me, the proof is in the pudding or shall I say you can tell the nature of a tree by it’s fruit. The recent movie Thirteen Days, which was an accurate portrayal of the actual Cuban crisis, gives us all the proof we need.
As for me, I have a different view of Kennedy. He was a frail man, who inspite of all of his maladies, overcame great odds to not only become president, but to face pain everyday and not let it stop him. We can take several different approaches as to his sicknesses and lack of health but you have to admire his heart, mind, and soul. That’s how I’ll remember him regardless of his weaknesses and humanity.
DEBT KEEPS BUILDING
November 18, 2003
The one thing that has to be worrying Alan Greenspan is the state of debt and the lack of credit worthiness. I am sure that’s why he reduced rates by a half point last week, but I don’t think it will help much.
The amount of debt that Americans and our corporations are stacking up are horrendous. Just look at the trade deficit (Nation debt) which is running $1.5 BILLION a day. And with the war looming (for another decade?), the cost to finance it all will surely push up interest rates soon and cancel out all of Alan’s dreams. We’re in deep yogurt though it’s more like a quick sand analogy, because the more action we throw at the economy, the deeper we sink.
States are particularly being hit hard as they thought the dot.com boom and the ability to tax corporations forever would never end. Well, these are severely CRITICAL times. Two of the largest states in America could very well declare bankruptcy were it not for the fact that our nation would bail them out. California is facing a staggering $21 billion dollar deficit in 2003, up from the earlier estimate of $10 billion.
Then there are our cities and New York City heads the list. Bloomberg is in a real mess. The city, for which he is the mayor, is looking at a $6.4 BILLION short fall in 2003. One of his ideas is a 30% increase in property taxes which will only alleviate 40% of the short fall, and I am sure he’ll hear it from home owners!
Yep, somewhere the debt BUBBLE has to explode. Don’t be in the way when it happens, meaning don’t have a lot of debt yourself.
THE NEXT SUPER POWER
November 16, 2003
Since 9-11 the world has been changed beyond our understanding, but there was one thing that was already changing the world pre 9-11: CHINA! I just posted an article in the Business section that indirectly relates to this commentary. U.S. companies cannot increase prices because China won’t let them.
China is in the news this week because Jaing is turning over the reins of government, and the political party, to Hu. He’s a post Mao thinker, a technocrat, and a new age leader. In fact all of the young new leaders are digital savvy. Some are even 7 foot six and play for the Rockets.
With a population of 1.3 BILLION people (1 Billion more than America), finding labor that will work for 1/40th what an American will toil for makes American products far too expensive. In fact China is big enough to manufacture the goods for the entire planet.
Additionally, China has just set up the Shanghai Gold exchange and appears to be moving to a gold standard to back it’s currency- the Yuan. In other words, they are doing all the things to be a super power. They have the resources to make anything happen.
So, the question is this. How long can America keep it’s title as king of the mountain? Most experts feel that America has about another ten years to keep the title. After 2012, all bets are off as to who is the 800 pound gorilla on planet earth.
THE DEBATE BEGINS!
November 15, 2003
Is it a violation or isn’t it? If the inspectors come out and find that they have a flat tire, prohibiting them from getting to a site, is that a violation? How about two tires? Would you believe FOUR tires? You see, that’s happened in the past as Saddam needed more time to get weapons hid before the inspectors got to the site.
We’ve learned a lot since then. This time in we’ve got ground-penetrating radar, a Hanna hand-held germ analyzer, satellite surveillance, predator assistance, and other hi-tech stuff to sniff the bad boys out. But even then, the job is a big one what with a nation the size of California and over 1,100 buildings in those PALACES.
Okay, then here’s a more serious question. How about firing on our planes in the no-fly zone? For the first time since the U.N. resolution was adopted, Iraq fired missles at our planes today. We of course took out the radar site near An Najaf about 85 miles South of Bagdad. You’d think that after several hundred tries, they’d get a clue, but of course they’re just carrying out Saddam’s orders. They get killed, he doesn’t.
Anyway, the debate has officially begun and if you thought Bill Clinton haggled over “words” and their meanings, get ready for some real debates. Of course having Iraq somehow actually hit and shoot down one of our planes would surely end the debate!
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