HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
December 31, 2003
For many people, 2003 will NOT be happy nor prosperous! I am going to post my TEN FORECASTS for 2003. Like everyone else, I begin with a set of glasses or presuppositions of which there are two very prominent lenses. I believe war with Iraq is inevitable and that we’re in a primary BEAR market. So, with that in mind, here’s what I see.
The Dow will be down for the 4th year in a row. It’s only happened once in history (1929-32). I see a Dow 6,600, Nasdaq 800 and S&P500 610. Second, the Dollar will collapse 20% more against all currencies by year end. Third, inflation will double over 2002 as the Greenspan printing presses set new records for money supply growth. Four, interest rates will begin to rise significantly by mid year. Five, as a result of the above, Greenspan will step down.
Six, the housing bubble will burst and average housing prices will begin to drop throughout the U.S. Seven, gold will go well over $400 an ounce by mid year. Eight, the war with Iraq will begin in late January and the U.S. will build a permanent presence in that nation from which to fight the war on terrorism. Nine, UBL will be caught and killed. And finally, bankruptcies will set a new record.
The economic frauds and excesses of 1992-2000 will finally come home to roost. While the above scenario will present many problems, those who plan for it will enjoy many opportunities. And then again, I could be all wet, but how can I do worse than all thsoe “experts” who have been so wrong for threee years running- with YOUR money?
THE 2003 WALL STREET “BULL”
December 30, 2003
With one half day to go in this year for the stock market (it closes early Tuesday), the Dow is down 1,600, the Nas-dog down 550, and the S&P500 is down 200+.
As we started this year, 98% of the Wall Street analysts predicted the market would be UP of course because the market could not go down three years in a row (where’d that logic come from?). And, the top 22 experts from Louis Ruykeyser’s “Wall Street Week” told us the Dow would close at 12,100 not 8,362 as I write this. Not one of them had the Dow closing under 10,000- but it will!
By the way, these same 22 “experts” also grossly missed in 2001. But, not to be swayed from their “perma-bull” nature, they are now saying the market can’t go down for four years in a row and most are saying that there will be a 10-30% rise.
Business Week just polled 67 “experts” of which 64 said the market would be UP in 2003. Did I mention that all these “experts” are in the business of SELLING stocks and who would ever buy stocks that are predicted to be down in the future? So, they LIE! Oh, well, maybe they just exeggerate- and some even go to jail and pay horrendous fines now as a result.
Then there’s Abbey Joseph Cohen. Remember her? She’s the Goldman, Sachs investment guru who keeps getting it wrong year after year. But, 2003 will be different because she says stocks are way under valued. You know what that is? Wall Street BULL! The only BULL left on Wall Street is that which is coming out of the mouths of those who’s income is predicated on you buying their stocks.
Wednesday, I’ll post my TEN PREDICTIONS for 2003. Then after 365 days, we can all look back and see who was really FULL OF IT! 
IT’S ABOUT FREEDOM!
December 29, 2003
There’s an interesting concept found in Christianity and many other religions and it’s called FREEDOM! To a degree you find it among many Muslims. Where you do NOT find elements of FREEDOM is among the radical elements and nations of Islam.
In a thirty year review going back to 1972 the world-wide trend is to democracy and away from dictatorships. A total of 89 countries are now free compared to 43 in 1972 while those labelled not free dropped from 69 nations to 47 nations. In terms of people, the number free moved from 1.3 billion to 2.7 billion, but the not free group also increased from 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion.
Then there’s this unique piece of data. The Middle East and N. Africa had the least progress towards freedom in the last 30 years where only ONE country is characterized as free, and that’s Israel. Most other Islamic nations in the region are NOT free.
So, what we saw in Afghanistan and what we see in Iraq is more than just Islam, but Islam gone bad: like Iran and N. Korea the other two nations in Bush’s “axis of evil”. It’s not just about a religion or Christianity vs. Islam, it’s about being able to choose for yourself. It’s about making personal decisions. It’s about FREEDOM!
PS. As for Venezuela, you’ve got this dictator claiming he’s president over a democracy. Welcome to self-deception and anarachy.
WAR IS INEVITABLE!
December 27, 2003
Rumsfeld has begun the process of calling up the needed reserves and active elements of our military. The USS George Washington has ben put on 96 hour alert as of today and many of the specialized Air Force units have a 10 day notice. For me it’s never been a matter of IF but WHEN. I am currently of the opinion that by January 10th, we’ll be in the REAL DEAL! Let me address why I think war is inevitable.
First, let me deal with the three reasons given by pundits that have nothing to do with the reality of the conflict. We’re not going to war because #41 is a DADDY’S MAN or to avenge his dad’s name! We’re not going to war because Bush is an OIL MAN! And, we’re not going to war because Bush is a POLITICAL MAN: the thought here is that Bush beat the war drums to win the November elections.
Here are the three REAL reasons why war is inevitable. First, we have to go to war or the MESSAGE that we sends to terrorists and al-Qaeda is that we’re wimps. The twin towers were leveled because recent history under Clinton showed that all we’d do is protest, or lob a missle into a few tents in Afghanistan as Clinton did. We’re in a “who will blink first” scenario and it’s not Bush.
Second, the war on terrorism can best be fought if we’re in the middle of their “stuff”, and occupying Iraq or having a presence there is the most strategic option available.
Third, with the world becoming so small and with so many nations building weapons of mass destruction, America must abandon the “defensive” posture of the past and adopt a new “pre-emptive” policy for the future. And, Bush is doing just that.
So Saddam, get ready. You’re about to face what you should have ten years ago. Soon, the inspector games will be over and the real deal will begin.
BREAKING OLD PARADIGMS!
December 25, 2003
As we begin celebrating Kwanzaa and head into the New Year, I think it’s way past time for us to start thinking in a new fashion. We are in a new century, headed to a new year, and facing all-new religious and international wars.
Let me refer to two recent events that point out our need to be delivered from old ways of thinking. The first was the D.C. Sniper saga. Several people had pointed out that they saw two dark-skinned men, especially in the Virginia Home Depot shooting. They also said they saw a car speeding away and not a white van.
But, authorities had a profile that they were following (from the past) and that involved a white man who was a loner carrying out his hurt in a destructive, taunting way. So, how many people lost their lives because we were looking for a ghost of years past and not the new realities?
Currently, we’re trying to track down the anthrax killer and we’re sure we know what his profile is like. He’s a disgruntled white male who worked in a U.S. lab and was most probably fired or overlooked for a promotion. So, the FBI is chasing after Dr. Hatfill.
I think one day soon we’ll find out that it was not a loner with a few thousand to spend, but a government backing several men who had tens of thousands of dollars to spend.
While I applaud our FBI and CIA, I also hope that they will quit relying on the stale past and begin looking at the new realities. It’s going to take more than a new set of glasses, it’s going to take a major paradigm shift, a new way of thinking, and a lot of risk!
MERRY CHRISTMAS?
December 24, 2003
In Venezuela there are no presents under the tree because there are no jobs, gasoline, or food in the stores.
In Kashmir, Muslim extremists are beheading Indian Hindus just because of their religion.
In North Korea, the rhetoric is now so harsh one wonders how long after the government makes their first atomic bomb that they’ll send one towards America.
In Baghdad, Saddam Hussein is threatening a scorched-earth policy if America attacks and just for kicks he’ll blow away Israel with all the Scuds he has.
Somewhere on planet earth UBL is trying to transport at least one of those missing suitcase bombs that he bought from the Russian mafia into the United States.
I think I’ll dispense with the litany of nations and dictators who are thinking anything but a Merry Christmas. Of course here in America all is well. Things are merry but Christ is not a part of it for many, and if we keep going as we are, He will not be mentioned at all fairly soon.
It’s not Merry Christmas but Happy Holidays. It’s not a Christmas tree but a Holiday tree. Crosses on any government land must be banned and this list goes on as well. I’d suggest that we do indeed have a Merry Christmas while we can. And in our spare time, maybe we should look back at what’s made the U.S. so prosperous and successful.
When we do, we might change our mind about taking Christ out of this season and add Him a little MAS (Spanish for more).
So, while I can say it, have a very MERRY CHRISTMAS!
BUSH, FRIST & GOD!
December 23, 2003
It was amazing, almost like deja-vu, to see Bill Frist come out today for his first meeting with the press after being elected as Senate majority leader. He began by quoting from Proverbs and I could not help but harken back nearly two years ago when Bush took the oath of office of President of the United States.
And then there was the introduction by Senator Allen and Santorum. I wonder if Santorum shaves yet? Not only did I have the image of three young, very young men, I saw three strong Christian men working for a strong Christian president. Wow! I never thought I’d see the day.
So, the dreams of so many Americans is now being manifested and therein is the challenge. I don’t think the image or the opportunity for building of a nation on the shoulders of our foundating fathers has ever been so promising.
Frist is a man who as a past surgeon held physical hearts in his hands and brought LIFE to those that would die otherwise. Now he holds the heart of the Senate and the nation in his hands in many ways. He represents a new breed. The “old guys” need to pass on what they’ve learned, but they also need to step aside and let them run with the ball.
The year 2003 will be a new day dawning with Bush, Frist, and yes, God in the middle of the political mix: the real and only one who’s name begins with a capital “G”. And, while these guys are human, there’s no guile or falsity in their dependence upon God. Refreshing!
THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS?
December 22, 2003
Well, actually it’s two nights before Christmas and all through the world, not a terrorist is safe and most Iraqis are wondering. With Saddam and his Royal Guard all things seem ready to take on the Great Satan parading as Santa Claus.
Kofi Annan is preparing for nearly 1 million refugees while the World Food Programme has petitioned several nations for $37 million to feed a million refugees for 30 days. Iraq is in material breach and the evidence is mounting. Even France is sounding the war drums and when the U.S. finalizes it’s “Let’s Make A Deal” with Russia, only China will object and that’s not enough to hold Bush in check.
But in places like Venezuela it might as well be a year before Christmas because that’s the last thing anyone is thinking about. For all practical purposes, Christmas has been canceled in Venezuela this year. It’s for the cause of freedom, they say. With the strike now 3 weeks old and Chavez digging in deeper, violence seems to be next on the agenda.
The “powers-that-be” in the opposition are in too deep to back out now. Too much is at stake for the opposition to back down now. Chavez can lose and hide out in luxury in Cuba with his bud, Castro. For Ortega and all the other “opposition leaders” it’s maximum jail time- at best.
So, while America gets ready to settle down in front of the fireplace beside a tree surrounded with presents galore, two nations face an entirely different set of circumstances. In both nations there’s a man at the top that’s a ego-maniac and both men could care less about what their nation is going through.
As we enjoy the benefits and comforts of these United States, a nation still under God, may we say a prayer for those that will either not have a Christmas or for whom a new year promises to be a year of hell.
A WEEKEND WRAP
December 20, 2003
It’s time for one of those commentaries where I ramble on about a myriad of things. It’s been a wild and wooly week. So here goes.
I am so glad to get the Trent Lott thing in the rear view mirror although Hillary and company are beating the “race drums” and trying to bond racism with Republicans. With the direction that Bush took on this topic and with Bill Frist in line to be the new majority leader in the Senate for the Republicans, I’d say the Democrats are in more serious trouble than before the Lott problem began.
Then there’s the potential for war. Potential? Come on. I missed the September deadline but my money is on the table for anyone who wants to bet, that we’ll be in their face before the end of Valentine’s Day. I expect massive call-ups right after Christmas. So nice of the Defense Department to give the boys an “at-home” Christmas present.
Down South in Venezuela, Hugo “the mouth” is getting a taste of his own medicine. He attempted a coup back in ‘92 so he’s facing “coupsters” as he calls them, in his own administration. He also told his officers not to obey the decrees of the Supreme Court, so the PDVSA employees are not obeying the “get back to work” order of the Supreme Court either. What comes around you know.
Then there’s the markets. Ahh, yes! With the Dow down 1,400+ points for the year to date and the Nas-dog and S&P500 in similiar negative territory, a three year loss for the markets is all but assured. Of course Wall Street praised the $1.4 BILLION dollar fine for all those crooks. You can go back into the shark-infested waters now. They still report phony “pro-forma” earnings but oh well.
Anyway, Christmas is just a few days away and I can’t wait to take back my streets and neighborhood shopping centers that are now being held hostage to an array of customers!
THE DUMBING-DOWN OF AMERICA
December 19, 2003
Just when you think we’ve seen the most stupid of all acts, the most ludicrous legislation, and the most ill thoughtout polices, along comes a new LOW. There’s a new movie trailer out promoting a movie for this Spring and in the title is the word- DUMBERER! Once again, art imitates life.
Of course when you want something really flaky, you just need to head West to California. You remember the flap a few months ago that came from the courts no less, that said children were not allowed to recite the “Pledge Of Allegiance” as we knew it. Well, the Del Mar Union School District has just outlawed the reading of Christmas stories!
Patricia Reynolds can no longer bring that nasty nativity scene into the classroom where one of her children goes and tell the other kids how they celebrate Christmas. How awful to pollute these poor young kid’s minds. She’s been doing it for years but now, it’s not politically correct.
Making sure they don’t do a job half way (the nice version), the district has decided that no teacher can wear any jewelry with a Christmas theme. Now just in case you think the district is totally insensitive to American customs, don’t worry. You can check out their web site and there you will see teachers and students dressed up for Halloween!
So, here’s the deal. Kids can dress up in ghost and witch outfits, teachers can wear goolish and satanic emblems celebrating Halloween, but no one can wear anything resembling Christmas or even TALK about it to the kids.
You know, my lead line, the “Dumbing Down Of America” doesn’t seem to go far enough to describe this situation but I don’t want to offend any readers so I’ll leave it at that.
A REALLY STICKY MESS
December 18, 2003
Anyone who is a frequent reader of this site for news has seen many more stories about Venezuela than you would some place else. In fact, only recently has the mainstream press started to see that we’ve got a BIG problem just south of us. And his name is Chavez.
This democratically-elected president is NOT what the people bought four years ago. He has taken the country into a highly socialistic, anti-capitalistic, pro-Cuban stream. He has become a dictator dressed in democratic clothes. Don’t forget that Adolf Hitler was democratically elected also. So, what’s the point?
Even the Constitution which he almost single-handedly wrote himself, he is violating. Article #350 of the Constitution gives the people all the “rights” that they need for what they are now doing. He has told his military officers to take over driving trucks, pumping gas, and he has basically “militarized” the nation. He’s illegally violated international law by putting unqualified personnel on oil tankers which cannot now be insured.
But now the real Chavez will have to play his hand. The Venezuelan Supreme Court has just ruled that his military take-over of the Caracas police was illegal and they had ordered him to hand the control of the police stations and vehicles back to the police chief and mayor of Carcas (whom are anti-Chavez). So, what will he do?
The real question is what will America and the world do? Oil has now surged over $30 a barrel and it’s heading to $40 unless something changes fast. We’re about to go to war with Iraq and there is already civil war in Venezuela. Those two nations supply 21% of our daily oil needs. And, it’s about to get more sticky than the product itself.
ISN’T ANYTHING SACRED?
December 17, 2003
I’m sure the sky is NOT falling, at least here in America: it may be in Venezuela. But today had to be a wake-up call for even Warren Buffett. I don’t know about you but I had my first 19 cents McDonalds hamburger 43 years ago! After a ball game, we’d go out and buy a half dozen and gulp em down.
Ahh, to be 16 again. Today, I eat far fewer hamburgers regardless of who makes them. Ray Kroc would roll over in his coffin if he could see how many competitors there are and what they’re serving these days. He was into the speed and the simplicity of serving a burger: and it shows.
But, back to my thought. Since I no longer eat lot’s of those things called hamburgers, and particularly since I seldom eat one at McDonalds, is it any wonder that McDonald’s stock crashed today. Without ME, they’re in big trouble!
The stock crumbled 8% today (down $1.39) with more than 35 million shares traded (an average day sees 7 million traded). What happened? Simple. McDonalds announced that they would take a 5-6 cents loss in the 4th quarter- the first loss in history. It’s more than just the closing out of McDonalds in Bolivia. People just aren’t going to pay $7 for a super-sized artery-hardening burger, fries, and drink when they can buy a healthy salad for less!
What’s the world coming to? I mean even McDonalds is losing money and they are surely not a Nasdaq, hi-tech, recent IPO entity. They’re a NYSE, DOW, and $20B cap corporation. Or, they were! Isn’t there anything sacred any more? Next thing you know we’ll be changing that song about American and apple pie, substituting the words- Krispy Kreme (hey, they can’t even spell!).
STICK TO ACTING!
December 16, 2003
Everyone is entitled to an opinion in America and some are important. It’s important what George Bush thinks. I value the opinion of my wife. Employees need to heed the opinion of their employers. I could go on but let me cut to the chase.
If I want an opinion about American foreign ploicy, I am going to listen to what Rumsfeld or Powell have to say. To make sure I am not just a male chauvinist, I’m also going to carefully consider what Condi Rice has to say. But, I’m certainly not going to give much attention, if any, to what Sean Penn thinks about our relations with Iraq. He is of course gathering notes while in Baghdad so he can share what he finds. I can’t wait.
Then there’s Danny Glover in Cuba this weekend trying to repair the damage America has done. Of course last week we had one hundred other actors and actresses making their opinions known. Some of them are even good at their profession. But, there is not one that I care to know what they think about politics or foreign policy.
Did I mention Harry Belafonte? When he’s not attacking Powell, he too is in Cuba with Danny bashing U.S. policies.
Iraq’s foreign minister and Cuba’s foreign relations director are of course using these “stars” to better their local image and in the end we wind up with dozens of “new age Fonda’s” who a decade later have to recant their earlier positions. But, it is still a free country. I’m still free to care less what actors think about war or politics.
PS. Sean Penn has just confirmed that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction. I guess we can call all of the U.N. inspectors back! What a relief.
NO GORE……IN 2004?
December 15, 2003
In what is probably one of his smartest decisions, Al Gore told Leslie Stahl Sunday night that he wasn’t going to run- two years from now. Of course 2008 is a different deal.
The reality is that no one wants to rehash 2000. Let some new faces take on #43. Joe Lieberman can now make it official. Kerry, Sharpton, Edwards, Gephardt, Daschle, and a dozen other wannabes can test the water to see if they can raise enough money to unseat the currently popular president. Believe me, it will take a LOTT of money.
As General Patton found out at the end of WWII, fame is fleeting. There are so many land mines and dangers between now and 2004, the least of which is not the economy. If Richard Russell is anywhere close to right, the BEAR market will continue toi claw investors apart, the Dow will fall to 5,000, gold will be over $1,000, and inflation will be out of this world. All of this is coming to towns nearest you- like the one you live in.
So, how can Bush overcome an econmic meltdown? How can he win with the stock market down FOUR years in a row (assuming it will be down next year for the fourth year). Gore has bowed out but you know, he could just as easily throw his hat back in the ring if things get much worse. After all, politics is all Al knows. And, Al does know politics. If not the presidency, will it will be Senator, Representative, or Governor one day soon? It’s who he is and all he knows.
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