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CONSPIRACY THEORIES OR REALITY?

While American TV and press are wrapped up on running the Lott issue into the ground, there are some really serious stories out there- aren’t there? I mean is it a possibility that we could go one hour without some commentary on what Lott’s statement meant? Is there some other news?

Well how about a commentary that I mentioned several times two years ago- suitcase bombs- nuclear bombs. Briefly, I just reviewed what many already knew but didn’t want the world to focus on: Russia was missing some 37 so-called suit case bombs. And it was reported that good old UBL had bought 20 of them.

Well, here we are two years later and the London Sunday Express is now reporting this old news. I mean, it sure sounds more exciting to me than a 50th replay of what Lott’s future might be. I am more interested in what America’s future might be. Ahh, but that’s just theory and conspiracy theory at that. Let’s wallow in the political mud. It’s so much more fun.

Just maybe next week we can get back to reality, which sometimes looks and smells a lot like some conspiracy theories. I mean we do have a president taking a smallpox shot before administering it to our military men. And, the Pentagon is now calling up 27,000 more reservists. What’s all this mean anyway? Is it important?

PS. You can read the lead story under the “Headlines” section entitled “Bush-Blair Warned Of bin Laden’s Nukes.”

A LOTT OF ATTENTION!

Last week the Republicans were on cloud nine having won back the Senate and even making gains in the House. Then came that Louisiana election where Mary took some steam out of the party. But that was just the beginning. The in-coming Senate leader opens his mouth about 1948 politics and all of a sudden, the Republican party is over and there’s a LOTT going on.

After not being able to shake the image, Bush steps up to the plate and back-hands Lott in front of a primarily Black audience. You know how it goes when you step into the proverbial “green-pile” out there in the field, it only smells worse as you walk.

After a local newspaper came out against Lott yesterday, he decided that a “hail-mary” pass was the only option and so he called a news conference just a few minutes ago in which he gave it his best or so I think. He even opened up to a Q&A.

The bottom line is that Lott like many other Americans grew up in an environment and lived a life style that neither he or they are proud. And even though they have changed and no longer embrace abandoned beliefs, the image remains, the smell only grows. So, we’ve heard a LOTT all week long and if we continue to hear a LOTT about his past image, it will all be over. His future and fate now rest in the hands of the unknown gods that sometime visit us bringing both good and evil. I’ve learned it’s best to issue mercy while your shoes are clean.

The GOOD NEWS though is that he referenced a God in his speech that he grew up as a boy in Mississippi, and that’s the only one that counts in the end.

A SAMPLING OF NEWS-

Every now and then, and maybe too often, I just can’t concentrate on one topic. Blame it on ADD, La Vida loco, or bad BBQ. Anyway, here are a few “thoughts” that captivated my mind for a few moments today.

First, Carter has offered to broker a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. Maybe getting the Nobel Peace Prize yesterday in Norway has him on a high. Does anyone remember how well he did brokering peace in Venezuela two months ago? NOT!

Gold went through the roof today and closed above the elite $330 level for the first time in eons. Gold just keeps prodding onward because the dollar is worth less and less every day (was it ever really worth even the paper written on?).

Lies from Chavez about getting his Venezuelan oil industry back on line isn’t working. He has no business trying to run a nation because he not only does not have those needed SKILLS, but also because he doesn’t understand basic interpersonal relationships, let alone politics. He’s TOAST!

Minutes of the recent Fed meeting showed the the boys who run the Fed are scared to death of DEFLATION and the massive DEBT that we’re building so that’s why they lowered rates 50 basis points. Evidently it hasn’t helped the stock market. In the month that things are supposed to be GREAT, well- all indices are in the RED so far!

Finally, let’s write the obituary for Martha Stewart or has that already been done? You see there’s a more personable, British-accented, smiling, and sassy version of America’s Martha now on the scene. Her name is Nigella Lawson. She’s everywhere and becoming more so. And instead of being a Wall Street hard-as-nails personna, she’s witty, educated (Oxford), and comfortable on the ears. If you’ve not discovered her recipes or home decor you can check her out at: http://asjune.homestead.com/nigella.html

So much for my wandering and inquisitive mind on this wet Thursday afternoon.

WHAT GOES SOUTH IN WINTER?

The answer to that is usually birds but we could also add to that the insiders. Although analysts are telling us how great things are going to be (haven’t they been telling us that for three years in a row now?) in this December-April time frame, somehow it’s not working out- AGAIN!

One of the sure clues to look for is what the big corporate executives are doing. You know, the INSIDERS who really know what the numbers are saying. If that “inside dope” is looking good, you can count on them to buy or at least HOLD (depending on their windows of eligibility).

Well, they are increasing their selling- of their own stock. Could it be a sign that things are topping out, gone over the top, or ready to drop like a rock? In November corporate insiders sold $2.6 BILLION of stock in their own companies which is the highest level since May.

I wonder if rising unemployment, a potential for war, and the fact that 40 states are running massive deficits has anything to do with it? Or, could it be that people are just plain tired of losing money? The latest survey of the top 26 major mutual funds shows that they are down 25.6% so far this year. And, this is the third year in a row for the EXPERTS to lose YOUR money for you. Somewhere people get tired of losing money and change their habits.

So, the bottom line is that I think the birds are going to have a lot of company as they head south this winter. The only difference is that those two-legged ones don’t have the ability or the mullah to fly!

TWO QUOTES WILL DO!

My two favorite gurus when it comes to the markets and the economy are really, really old-timers. If you were alive and well in the Depression, you know things- things that 99% of the Wall Street analysts haven’t a clue about. So, instead of me paraphrasing, let me give you two quotes that speak volumes.

Harry Schultz of HSL International fame says this, “You like it short and concise. Okay, here it is. Deflation is a sell (courtesy of the Great Mall Of China). Inflation is a buy. Gold bullion is a buy. Silver is a sell. US$ is a sell. Euro is a hold. Ethics are a sell. Half of the S&P500 company pension funds are under-funded. If stock options were the hot topic in 2002, look for under-funded pension funds to take over the headlines in 2003.” I think he covers it pretty well.

Back here at home Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame says this, “The number one fundamental for creating prosperity is saving and investing. But, what’s the country concentrating on? Answer- SPENDING. Keep the consumer spending. Is Wal-Mart selling enough? Are Americans buying enough cars? How are homes selling? Spend, spend, spend you poor devils and keep building your debt. It is taking more and more debt to create more production. Since the beginning of 1998 the U.S. under the Greenspan Fed has produced $9.1 TRILLION of credit market debt. And what has all that debt generated? It’s generated a GDP of about $2 TRILLION. In other words, it’s taking about $4.5 trillion in bank credit to produce $1 trillion in GDP. Economically, we’re running up the down escalator.”

Russell and Schultz agree that there’s a major war going on but it’s not the war on terrorism but a DEFLATION war. China is winning and the Fed is losing. A good example is the Sampo 42″ thin screen TV that started out this year priced at $4,000 and nine months later sells for $2,950. Before I go on, let me stop with just the above two quotes.

SMELLS LIKE WAR TO ME!

They are coming out of the woodwork and I’m not talking about roaches! The latest person to jump on the STOP BUSH’S WAR is Jimmy Carter. I am not sure he’s ever gotten off the script but he took the advantage of lots of internatioanl press in Norway to make his point before getting the Nobel Peace Prize.

Today (well, I’m writing this at 10:40 Monday night) or Tuesday Bush is expected to get a letter from 100 Hollywood actors imploring him to not go to war. I don’t kow about you but what Kim Basinger, Martin Sheen, and Matt Damon think about international events doesn’t entice me. Of course few Democrats want him to take on Iraq. But there’s this sense that Buch could give the GO signal at any time.

Could it be that Saddam’s challenge of Bush has now got people worried? You see, Bush has said that Saddam has weapons of mass destruction. Saddam just put in writing the details that prove he doesn’t have such play toys. But, he didn’t stop there. He basically said “In your face Bushie”, now you PROVE that I have them! Wow! Okay, now what George?

You see, I might question Bush were it not for the fact that in the last 12 years, Saddam has admitted or been proven to have lied EIGHT times. So, has he found God (or should I say Allah) all of a sudden? He he had a revival or transformation of who he is?

I don’t think so and I think many of the doves sense that Saddam is taking Bush over the top and in the face-off (a real one), Bush #43 is not Bush #41. It seems that Saddam has not figured that out yet, but he may real soon. From my perspective, the war is on- all that needs to be done is to declare it!

READ THE HEADLINES!

If there are any two headlines that are symbolic of the “times”, they come from Chicago and Los Angeles today.

First there’s the long-awaited filing of bankruptcy by United Airlines. Here is the airline that has connections throughout the world and controls about 20% of America’s passengers with more than 1,700 flights daily. It’s a stock that sold for $100 a share back in the glory days of the Greenspan-Clinton days. You know, the days when any old IPO could bring in billions even though the corporation had no business plan. The UAL stock today goes for 93 cents. We’re talking a 99% drop in five years.

Then there’s California. You know the state that gives every druggie an annual salary to stay clean, puts tens of thousands of regulations on every business, and protects every frog and bird imaginable. It’s the environment stupid!

Well, California is facing bankruptcy just like UAL but they’re not UAL so, guess what. The taxpayers are going to take it in the rear, the ear, and anywhere else Gray Davis can find. It will be interesating to see where they find the $6.1 billion they need to close the gap. Sure glad I don’t own any real estate in California.

Anyway, these two headlines are just symbolic of where our nation really is financially. So, buy more stock, let’s get back to the glory days of the 90′s. Yeah, right.

PLAYING THE HAND HE’S DEALT!

Before George Bush announced that he would run for president, I referenced the fact that no matter who won the presidency in 2000, they’d face a hellacious time with the economy. After eight years of wild, corrupt, and fanatical economic hype, there was no way for the economy or stock market to go but DOWN!

The firing of Lindsey and O’Neill yesterday is proof to me that Bush is finally realizing what he’s facing. He’s been dealt a hand that looks terrible. It’s like keeping a pair of three’s and asking for three cards, hoping you’ll pull the improbable three aces for a full house.

Bush’s election in 2004 really had to overcome several obstacles- three cards. The first card he needed was to get the control of the Senate and hold the House- and that happened. It just might be that he draws the ace tonight when the final senate seat (Louisiana) is determined.

The second card he needs is to have a quick and successful war with Iraq and as an added bonus take out UBL. Neither of these two events will be easy but what is these days? Bush has drawn a line in the Iraq sand and now he has to back up his words or he can forget being re-elected in 2004.

Finally, he has to try and ride out the balance of this BEAR market with his popularity and charisma. Can you imagine Bush with Charisma? He’s got it! In other words, with a $2 TRILLION budget to fight the war in Iraq, the culmination of the bear market that will take the Dow down to 5-6,000 level, and with all the pain that massive accumulated debt has brought on, Bush has to draw two more aces to go along with the one the voters handed him last month.

It’s like drawing to an inside straight: terrible odds but destiny has a way of rewarding those who seek and follow truth.

BANG- BANG- BANG!

It’s the wild wild West and maybe you’ll see more Texans in the White House soon. You see, in the last few weeks, Bush has shot down three of his top economic advisors: two today!

Last month it was Harvey Pitt from the SEC that had to go. He just wasn’t the man for the job and we all know the SEC needs to do a better job over all those criminal CEO’s.

Today it was a back-to-back shoot out with Treasury Secretary, Paul O’Neill resigning followed closely by Lawrence Lindsey (White House Economic Advisor) taking the hit. It’s obvious and no one is trying to hide the fact that Bush asked for their resignations: like they were canned!

It’s estimated that the war with Iraq could cost $2 TRILLION dollars before it is all over. The economy had to take a fall after the 90′s bubblemania, so with just 23 months before Bush stands for re-election, he’s got to bring in some serious mind power to the economic picture. We are going to have to see some drastic changes. Is Greenspan the next one to take a hike? His days are over. He has presided over the greatest economic expansion of money (devaluation of your money) than ALL the Fed governors put together- in history. An amazing fact!

And why not turn to Texas and bring a few more “gunners” in? Two candidates that come to mind are the recently retired Senator, Phil Graham, and our own locally grown and retired U.S. Congressman, Phil Archer.

Who knows? What we do know is that we’re in very choppy economic waters and it’s going to get much rougher before it gets better, regardless of what the analysts on CNBC have to say. In fact, many of them will probably get shot down soon as well.

H-DAY IS ABOUT TO ARRIVE!

It has seemed obvious to me that the Inspectors were looking at a lot of old stuff, not wating to go where the U.S. KNOWS stuff is hid. My bet is that Bush and intel KNOW where to go come next week. Ari said as much today in a news conference. Surely Bush and Ari aren’t that dumb! They just want Saddam to play his hand and make a statement that we can later prove is a LIE (not hard to do with Saddam).

So, this weekend is what I label as H-DAY! It’s that time when Saddam has a choice to be his old self and lie or come clean on H-DAY (Honesty). I am betting he’ll give Bush the invitation that he’s been looking for. Just look at what the world thinks.

First Russia and India signed an agreement yesterday advising Bush to not start something without U.N. approval. Stocks had been up eight weeks in a row, but now the Dow has been down five days in a row, dropping more than 300 points total. The gold index (XAU) and gold generally have been up five days in a row. The military is saying that they may begin the next wave of reservist call-ups this weekend.

If I were Saddam, I’d try and keep my position and extend my life, but I think he’s been reading his own press for too long and actually believes he can withstand Bush. Let me tell you, #43 has a far different agenda than # 41 had. So, as H-DAY arrives, don’t make any normal bets. In fact as we head into the wekend and week ahead, all bets are off (except that gold will continue to rise).

TOO GOOD TO BE…………..?

Yeah, you can complete that phrase. If someone says it’s a deal that’s too good to be TRUE (it probably IS). Alan Greenspan has been heralding American productivity as the god-send for American wealth. Well, there’s another expression as well, which says too much of a good thing is really bad. And therein lies my message today.

Today it was reported that American productivity far exceeded expectations. Now, part of that is because businesses have been laying people off and getting more work out of fewer people. But, another part of it is simply that we’re TOO GOOD today at producing stuff. In fact we are producing soooo much that we can’t use it all.

The retail business in America is headed for a fall. There are too many malls, too many strip centers, too many grocery stores, and too many on-line stores. Any foreigner who comes to America is shocked at what they see at Wal-Mart, Sears, or Kroger. The shelves are stacked to the ceiling with goods and more goods.

China is becoming the manufacturer for the world. Japan was at one time worried about the competition that China gave them. Now, they are venture-partners with China and building all their goods there. There’s an economic revolution under way and few are aware of it. It’s that we’re building things faster that we can consume them (and we do a great job of that).

The result is called DEFLATION. There is nothing that we’re in short supply of and everything that we’re miles deep in. Too good to be true? Yep and therein comes tomorrow’s problems- or at least some of them.

MORE EVIDENCE COMES IN

It appears that the Wall Street “giddy” attitude is beginning to wane- fast! Everyone was gung-ho after seeing the Dow rise for eight weeks in a row and the train was leaving the proverbial station. Allllll- board!

But this is week nine and I don’t think this cat has nine lives. The Dow has now been in the red for three days in a row, war is back on the front burner, and AOL is fessing up to the reality that 2003 ad revenue might be off a bit- like 50%!

And then as I’ve said in previous posts, what’s the automobile industry going to do when everyone owns a new car- even those who cannot afford or need one? Even nada down, zero interest rate, and no payments until sometime in 2004 is pulling them in.

Numero uno (GM) in the auto industry reported car and truck sales that were 18% behind a year ago November. Ford was close behind with a 16.6% drop. And don’t you love how the big executives speak with a forked tongue. Consider this statement by a Ford executive, “We’re optimistic about auto sales for the months ahead and we’re cutting fourth quarter production by 25,000 vehicles.” Say what?

To see how strange things are, Ford announced a full-year earnings warning on October 16th. So, how did Wall Street respond? They increased profit expectations from 43 cents to 47 cents! Hmmmm.

And, if everything is coming up roses at Wall & Broad, why did Merrill Lynch reduce their model for stock ownership- downward? Oh well, it’s really hard to adjust to reality and so much more fun to live in fantasy world.

The evidence though is overwhelming. This BEAR is far from dead, or even wounded. If you don’t believe it, stick your foot or head in the cage (buy some stocks) and see how much they get mauled- much like the average mutual fund over the last three years.

SODOM & HOUSTON?

Houston, we have a problem, and I am not talking space junk either. This is not a NASA problem. I’m talking the Sodom & Gommorrah thing. You know, sexual perversion and the like. Sure, San Francisco makes same gender sex a normal thing and Las Vegas makes prostitution legal, but we’re not talking California or neighboring Nevada. This is TEXAS!

Down here in the heart of the South where male Texans pride themselves on being MEN (not necessarily the same as a man) we’ve got this problem- SODOMY! And, those that are doing it are hurting out macho image.

So, it’s not the cavalry that’s going to ride into Houston and save the West but the United States Supreme Court. Today, they decided to step into the fray of two men who committed sodomy. The question is whether the other twelve states, along with Texas, can make it illegal for a couple of guys to satisfy their sexual preferences- with each other.

Finally the gay men and lesbians will get their day in court. Why can’t two consenting adults do whatever they please in their own bedrooms? Isn’t it an invasion of privacy for the state to get invovled? Why do we punish gays and lesbians for doing what heterosexuals do. I mean, sodomy is defined as abnormal sex, and in some states oral sex is covered under the sodomy laws.

Ahh, what a fine mess we’ve got now. I don’t know about you but I’m not holding my breath on this one. It’s obvious to me that unless God sends in a swarm of locusts or stops the sun, nothing is going to stop our Supreme Court from shoving us closer to that Old Testament city. And, it’s not just Houston that has a problem, but society- mankind.

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