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A NATION MOURNS

Slowly it is sinking in. We have just experienced a national tragedy. We have just been awakened again to the reality of how fragile life is. The words of Ilan Ramon’s father rings out, “I have no son.” Over the next few days grief will sink deeper into our corporate psyche and the world as we get to know the names and lives of the seven people. Yes, people.

We will find out what happened, fix it, and continue the journey into space. It’s not about space though. It’s about Americans and how God has uniquely created us as a people who know no boundaries. We are a people who live to discover the unknown, to open up new frontiers.

Our grief will last but for a season. We will mourn, we will remember, and we will conquer once again- the fears and mysteries that make up our universe. And like the last words of Ilan Ramon’s e-mail to a friend just before re-entering the atmosphere, “I would like to keep floating like this for the rest of my life.”

Prayer granted!

SCAREDY CATS & SMOKING GUNS!

Peaceniks! Boy talk about back to the future. I had just about erased all those tapes of the sixties, Berkeley, and peace signs. They’re baaaaack! Some things just never change.

One of the strongest arguments against war for the current crop of demonstrators is that they don’t want to make the terrorists mad at us. If we attack Iraq, the terrorists will attack us. Say what? Are we NOT going to fight for our rights because they might hit us back? I mean, are we assuming that the terrorists are pacifists and if we DON’T attack, they won’t attack us? Hello- is anyone at home?

Did I mention this great piece of real estate that I have in Florida?

And what’s this smoking gun stuff? We can’t attack because we have not found one. What do you call the World Trade Center Twin Towers? And what’s wrong with taking the gun out of your enemies hands before they shoot you with it. Oh, yes, that would be “pre-emptive” wouldn’t it.

Next week the world is going to get a preview from Colin Powell as to the real nature of the Iraqi regime. You will hear some tapes, see some film, maybe, “do a little dance” (opps, that’s a song). There will not be an Adlai Stevenson picture of Russian missles. Why? Anthrax, nerve gas, and mustard gas doesn’t film well in a cannister or brief case.

Stay tuned. Next week will be a real hot potato that maybe even the French and Germans will have to join us on. Maybe not, but I’d bet a pretty penny that they’ll jump on board just before the flag is dropped. And if not? C’est la vie- Das ist lebens!

YOU GOT MAIL- I GOT QUESTIONS

Wow! It seemed like a day when I was back in college taking one test after the other, except in this case, I didn’t have to have the right answers. I couldn’t help but quiz myself all day long. I appreciate many of you readers who send me ANSWERS and e-mail me things I need to know, when I write about something I know nothing about.

I’ve been asking this question for months. How will we know WHEN we’re going to war? Obviously February 25 to March 5th is an excellent time as we have a new moon then, and it would be best for our planes and soldiers (all have night goggles). But, surely Saddam has information on the moon as we do.

Then today when Saddam invited Hans Blix for a meeting February 10th, I had to ask myself if that was a trick? Is he looking for a well-known hostage? And then prior to that, I’ve asked myself how we plan on not announcing the war date and yet leading 100+ blind inspectors out safely? Maybe seeing-eye dogs?

Back here at home, why is anyone surprised that AOL-Time Warner lost $100 billion? We all knew the late 90’s were a bookkeeping farce and now it’s time to pay the piper. Farce is a kinder, more gentle version of the truth.

And what’s up with Mandela anyway? Today he said Bush wanted Iraq because they produce 64% of the worlds oil when it’s only 5%. Bad speech writers? But to say that “Bush has no foresight and cannot think properly” is taking it a bit far. But then, saying it’s all because “the secretary-general of the U.N. is black?”. Wow! Is it simply old-age?

Finally, maybe I did answer one question I’ve asked myself for weeks now. Why is France and Germany so anti-the U.S. or the war? Many people have said it’s becasue we’ll find just how much business they’ve been doing with Iraq when we take over. But after looking at their national stock markets, I think I have the answer. The French CAC40 in Paris is 60% off it’s highs. The German DAX in Frankfurt is 67% off it’s highs. Maybe they are just in a bad mood and taking it out on everyone.

BRING ON THE “PLAYERS”

While reading some comments from Davos via Stratford Intelligence, I couldn’t help but do a flash-back to my younger days. Some thirty years ago I was a real-live, authentic, PLAYER! You see, I got invited to places like Pula, Yugoslavia. I doubt if any of my readers have ever heard of the place. So many things have changed in that region.

If you were a minor-leaguer you could get an invite to Las Vegas or maybe even Aruba; however, it would take some serious paper and a reputation for being a true PLAYER at gaming, to get a free trip to the communist land of Pula. That was then, this is now.

France wants so bad to be a player. Germany thinks they are. The rise of the Euro and the EU generally has raised France’s opinion of itself to a level that’s not merited. So, while these two nations assert their rights, the rest of Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Britain , and a dozen Eastern Europe nations) are having other thoughts.

The Davos meeting was all about multilaterialism. The U.N. is all about it as well. While I respect every person’s opinion and their right to go whatever way they choose, I do not care for those who think small to tell me I must think in like fashion.

Our constitution was so fomulated to protect the majority as well as the minority. The powerful need to respect the weak, but not to live their life like the weak. What the world needs is some men and nations who have strong morals, compassion, purpose, and mercy and the GUTS to do what is RIGHT. In other words, in times of crisis, I look around to find out who the PLAYERS are that embody the traits mentioned above and I say, “Let’s get it on.”

I think that’s the message George W. is delivering right now.

A LOVING GOD!

Well, that pretty well sums it all up for me. Would that we all could put our confidence in a loving God. There really is no other way: no realistic or successful way.

As I thought about how I might respond to the State Of The Union, there were two phrases that stood out and underlined by Fox amalyst, Juan Williams. I’ve seldom felt any connection with Juan’s views, but tonight he and I connected, just as he and Bush did.

I was shocked to hear a left-leaning African-American say that he was TOUCHED by Bush’s speech. That Bush could spend so much time on the 30 million suffering from AIDS in Africa, and talk about children who had to walk through prison gates to get a hug from their mom or dad, resonated with Juan. It was as though Bush was saying to the disadvantaged and disenfranchised, “I understand, I care.” Wow!

Then there were the two phrases that caused my tuning fork to resonate. Bush said that “trusting in the sanity and restraint of Saddam was not an option”. I hope everyone not only heard but got what that statement meant.

Then there was the phrase, “Liberty is God’s gift to humanity.” What a blessed nation we are in spite of all our flaws. How can anyone not take advantage of it unless they’re not told.

The presidnet’s ratings will go UP, they usually do after such a speech, even if the world has just found out you’ve had an affair with an intern. But, the countdown has begun. Nations will climb aboard, Democrats will slowly see the wisdom of getting a seat on the train, and Hollywood will continue to complain. On Feb. 5th, Colin Powell will reveal previously classified information on Irag to the UN. And then sometime in late February we will send many of our young men into harms way and pray for that loving God to demonstrate His mercy and compassion, once again.

CAN WE TALK- COMMON SENSE?

It seems from time to time that the press and the public get wrapped around the proverbial axle. Let me address the numero uno topic of the day- IRAQ!

In this corner wearing black we have America and a dozen or more friends. In the other corner wearing lilly white we have France, Germany, and a host of other usual suspects. We’ve given Iraq 18 years to disarm but those in the white trunks want more time: months or years if needed.

Now to the common sense part of this commentary. Has Iraq said that they have NO WMD’s? I think the answer is YES. Does 99% of the world really believe that Saddam is telling the truth? Duh, No! With a decade of knowing how to work around the inspectors, do you think Blix and his blind mice can find anything? Do you really think more time will help? I mean given 20 years, maybe!

And why won’t the scientists talk without “minders”? Why doesn’t Saddam tell us what he did with 8,500 liters of anthrax, all of the weaponized VX poison gas, the smallpox viles, and yes while you are at it, where are the 29,984 chemical warheads (less the 16 we’ve found) that are missing and unaccounted for.

Listen, how many men in history have been more evil, killed more of their own citizens, gassed more of his neighbors, and tortured more people than Saddam? I’m not for sure except I do know this, it’s a very, very short list (in all of history). Isn’t this just common sense? And after Blix reported today, watch the tide slowly and begrudgingly turn to America’s position. Hey, it’s a no-brainer, like common sense! Can we talk?

THE REAL & THE COUNTERFEIT!

Call it the tale of two cities, the fabric of two men, or just the story of the real deal and the counterfeit. I’m talking about Lula de Silva and Hugo Chavez. You guess which is which. Both men have been labeled left-wing leaders but they’re as opposite as day and night.

First there is Silva who was just elected to lead Brazil. He is in Davos, Switzerland where he was invited for the World Economic Council. Then there’s Chavez who is in Porto Alegre, Brazil for the World Social Forum to which he was NOT invited!

Silva is a neo-socialist who is anchored in economic orthodoxy. Chavez is a dictator anchored in his self deception. Oded Grajen warned Chavez not to use the Forum for self-promotion? Say what? Why else would he be where he’s not invited?

Lula de Silva is balanced. Chavez is out of control. While Silva calls Chavez a friend, he is not his lackey. When Chavez wanted Silva to keep the U.S. out of the “friends of Venezuela”, he told Chavez to buzz off.

I guess you could put it this way. There’s those who care for the people and have the ability to lead and then there’s those who care only for themselves and have not a clue about diplomacy. It’s the real (Silva) and the counterfeit (Chavez).

TIME FOR SERIOUS PRAYER!

We are embarking on what I called on January 16th, “Super Bowl Week”. We have the GAME today, the U.N. report Monday, the State of the Union speech Tuesday, Greenspan’s report Wednesday, and the year, and maybe the next decade, can be altered by the events of this week.

Wall Street is scared silly of this week because there’s this omen that as January goes, so goes the year. It’s been that way in 42 out of 52 years. So, while it’s only 80% true, those are large odds. The Dow is down 207 points so far this year and the news isn’t looking good for this week. Duh!

For all those who sell stock, and yet call themselves analysts, I’m afraid their hopes are going to be destroyed by reality. The talk is which will come first, Down 9,000 or Dow 7,000? Are you kdding?

It’s a very serious week: one that could put thousands if not tens of thousands of soldiers (ours) in harms way, in a serious way. Saddam is not going into exile and he does have weapons of mass destruction. And, he will use them whenever and wherever he can. Our politicians and especially the president need wisdom. Our military field commanders need skill and patience. Our soldiers need courage. We civilians, here in America, and people throughout the world, need to pray for minimal casualties and a quick removal of the destructive elements in Iraq.

It’s a week and a season needing serious prayer by all religions who desire good over evil and peace over war.

THANKS FOR THE HONOR!

As I sat before my 19 inch monitor and pondered what I could say that was positive, I was hard-pressed to find something: anything!

The bear trap caught a few more suckers on Wall & Broad with a 238 point drop today. The State Department has warned our officials in embassies around the world to be prepared to pack up and head home. Venezuela gets worse. And, then there’s this sticky wicket called Iraq. We’re not sending 200,000+ troops to the Gulf for war-games.

But alas there’s the Patrick Cubbage story which took me back a little over a year ago. It was on this small rise, off a lonely road, that over-looked thousands of acres of corn and milo that my mind drifted. There with a slight wind whispering through the tress: it was as though the dead could speak from this grave site on which I stood.

As the shots rang out giving my father his final honor, tears ran down my cheeks. The flag was folded with diligence and reverential fear. I’m not sure what the words were when the flag was handed over by the honor guard, but I imagine it was something like what Patrick Cubbage said last October when he performed the same service. He simply said, “God bless you.”

For that he was fired! You see, the president and commander-in-chief can say it, but this Vietnam veteran working the honor guard detail cannot? I thought this was a GOOD NEWS story!

It is. And, the good news is that this wrong will be righted. We’re STILL a nation under God. We still declare it on our money. Our buildings still proclaim it. And, Cubbage will be re-instated because God is still the one who blesses this nation in spite of it’s wrong-doings. And if the day ever comes when we no longer give Him honor, that the day the blessings will end.

LET’S BOYCOTT FRENCH FRIES!

It was a terrible day for those who grew up with Ray Kroc and all those red and white buildings with yellow arches. I still remember those 15 cent hamburgers. But, just when you thought all was well with a judge throwing out the “fat boy” lawsuit, along comes today’s announcement. McDonalds had their first ever losing quarter in history. It was a humdinger also. McDonalds lost $344 million and will have to close more than 500 stores.

Ahh, but that’s not where I want to venture today. I’m recommending we show our disgust for France’s lack of support for war in Iraq by boycotting FRENCH fries! Whatcha think?

After France backed Powell’s call for Resolution 1441 two months ago, the French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, set Powell up this week by inviting him to the U.N. (he couldn’t get the press there on his own) and then announced that France was going to block a war in Iraq. Yeah right!

I think we’ve got the kettle calling the pot black. France and Russia are accusing the U.S. (as are others) of wanting a war with Iraq for OIL! Ahh, but France has major commerce transactions with Iraq and Russia is owed $7 BILLION by Iraq. A war in Iraq would disrupt their “economic interests. I guess we need to always “follow the money”. Is greed one of the seven deadly sins?

We’re only two days away now from Super Bowl WEEK. Sunday, it’s the game. Monday it’s the U.N. report. And, Tuesday night it’s the State of the Union Address! So France, get ready to rumble.

PS. Do you think FRENCH fries are really French? Parlez-vous francais?

A BIG BEAR TRAP?

We’re in the last year of my economic forecasting. Back in 1998, I did the first of a series of three-hour seminars warning people of the parabolic catastrophe that the stock market was carving out. Of course hardly anyone listened. The Nasdaq and CNBC were our gods then. But in about 20 months we discovered that the King had no clothes, and the Nasdaq had no earnings or credibility.

I thought back then that we’d potentially face 3-4 down years in the economy and stock market, with the Dow falling back to a 5,000-6,500 range. My target for this year is a low of 6,600. Of course since we’d had 20 years of a bull market and only once in history (29-32) had four down years in a row, it was a dumb projection.

Okay, let’s fast forward to January 22, 2003. The market has been down for three straight years and twenty-two days into year # 4, the Dow is down for the year- again!. Everyone got excited when last week the Dow was up over 500 points but in the last five days it has dropped around 522 points to put it in negative territory for the year.

If I were Bush, here’s what I would do. If he’s going to get re-elected in 2004, he needs to let the excess be wrung out of the market. In other words, he needs to have that bad year THIS year and not NEXT year. If he’ll allow the market to do it’s natural correcting (unlike Clinton and Greenspan) and get bad year #4 out of the way early, get the war behind him, then he can have a rising twelve months heading into November 2004, and have a chance at re-election. If not, well, he may follow in the footsteps of his dad being a war hero and not being re-elected due to the economy.

You see this BEAR TRAP nails politicians as well as investors-gamblers. And then I can look forward to some “positive” economic forecasting.

SCAVENGER HUNT OR DISARMING?

There are no easy answers today. We are living in some times that are demanding the best of us which comes at a high price. Venezuela is one such example.

I am totally in support of democratic principles unless the one who has been entrusted to enforce those principles violates them himself. My position is that Chavez has done exactly that- in addition to not being mentally able or capable of running a government. But, I confess it’s a hard position to be in.

The main thought here though lies with the Iraq matter. Which stage is America going to play out modern-day life? Every nation has the sovereign right to defend themselves. In other words they can go it alone if need, and that’s stage one.

We also live in a world that’s getting smaller and smaller and so we must cooperate with our neighbors like never before in history. So, do we have to have U.N. approval for all that we do? How much time must we live on that stage?

Finally, there’s the U.N. Security Council with a veto right to our stage one. France says that they will veto any attack of Iraq. Bush feels Iraq is a threat to our future existence. So, do we have to live our life according to what the French, who seem to always been overaken with their own perfume, Chinese, or Russians say? I think not.

The bottom line for me, while painful, is simple. The rest of the world is into “weapon inspectors”, otherwise known as a scavenger hunt. Bush is into having Iraq disarm. It’s not the dozen warheads that we FOUND, but the 29,000+ that they are hiding.

Thankfully the man who is president will do what is right. At least that’s how I read him. And that means the scavenger hunt is about over and it’s time for the French to stop drinking their wine and start smelling the roses- the realities of life.

DUBYA’S DUMBING DOWN?

I don’t think so!

Of course 90% of Hollywood thinks that George didn’t get past the 3rd grade. and then some like George Clooney wonder if he even went to school. I am amazed at Hollywood’s stars visiting Baghdad and speaking out on issues and people(like Streisand frequently does) whose names they cannot even pronounce nor spell. But, it’s still a free country, rattle on.

Many used the street demonstrations this weekend in America to point out how awful Bush’s policies are. Let me ask two questions. What percentage of America did the demonstrators constitute? Was it something like 0.0002%? Secondly, aren’t the demonstrations proof of the value of our system in America: a plus? Have you ever thought why you don’t see anti-Saddam demonstrators? Reason- they’re dead!

But, I’ve been amazed at all the political pundits, politicians, and naysayers who think Bush has no evidence of Saddam’s WMD’s. As for me, I think he’s holding back until the right moment. Bush (can you say Rumsfeld) is building a massive quarter million strong military force line upon line, slowly. It will all be in place by Feb. 10th (my take). So, somewhere between his State of the Union message (Jan. 28th) and mid February, the world will get their proof and once again, many people (and nations) will discover something that we Texans have know for some time- Dubya is no Dummy!

IT’S JUST TALK!

The headlines in most newspapers this morning, including the Chronicle, offered the possibility of EXILE for Saddam. Rummie went on the circuit yesterday to voice the same proposal, saying that Saddam’s exile would be preferable to war.

STOP!

Aren’t we still takling about Saddam Hussein? Aren’t we talking about the Madman for Baghdad who just loves to kill people, is an ego-maniac, and has numerous doubles? Aren’t we talking about the man who says he will destroy America? My impression is that we’re just talking!

It may be we’re trying to appease the peaceniks, the far left, and those who would rather be slaves than fight any war. Whatever is going on with these crazy ideas that somehow Saddam is going to go into exile, forgetdaboutit!

It’s not nood english but - IT AIN’T GOIN’ TO HAPPEN. It’s just talk, before the war
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And Martin Luther King’s, “I Have A Dream” was not just talk either. On this day that we honor the man and his principles, his rhetoric is still alive. He was truly an American but more importantly, he was a compassionate Christian American: one whom the founding fathers symbolized when they drafted our Constitution.
“If a man hasn’t discovered something that he will die for, he isn’t fit to live. MLK

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