BIRDS OF A FEATHER- WHAT?
February 28, 2004
Well, let’s take a side-step from the war stuff for a day and let me look at the opposite of what I talked about yesterday. Let’s follow the MONEY! Yes, we’re moving from Bush’s M&M (yesterdays’s commentary) to the other side of the coin.
You see, Forbes Magazine sent out their list of the very, very rich. Of course we all expected to see Bill Gates at the top and Warren right on his heels. But how about those “birds of a feather” dudes? More importantly, how about that name that is not yet on the list but could be one day if he’s not killed for his arrogance and well, let me be nice.
At the top of the list is the BROTHER (Saddam) who is worth some $2 billion. In the middle is Araft with about $300 million. And, at the bottom is the FATHER (Fidel) with something north of $100 million in net worth. Brother, Father?
Yes, you see Hugo Chavez calls Saddam his brother and Fidel his father, and so he is trying to follow in their foot-steps. He’s turning Venezuela into a left-wing, social dictatorship. He broke the strike and so now he’s telling the “Friendly Six Nations” to take a flying-leap and to stay out of his affairs. He’s arresting everyone he doesn’t like and he’s doing what dictators normally do- play god.
Finally, to complete this model and be like his “close friends” as we’ve mentioned above, he’s after money, and a lot of it. Since PDVSA was the only money-maker in Venezuela, he’s made himself the President of PDVSA therein assuring himself that he too can be worth hundreds of millions down the road.
Ahh, birds of a feather. Yes they do make money- and messes wherever they roost.
FOLLOW THE M&M’s (Candy?)
February 27, 2004
There’s been an old adage in politics that says if you want to find out anything, you just need to “Follow The Money”. Money seems to be the common denominator of all activity and motivation by mankind. George Bush is turning that concept on it’s head.
One of the problems that old Europe has with Bush is that he comes across as too moralistic! Say what? Oh yes, politicians are not supposed to have any morals. And, when comparing Bush to Clinton one has to use different lenses. Bush says things like, “you are either WITH us or you are AGAINST us.” Hey, lighten up a little Georgie.
A problem that old-line politicians have with Bush is that he appears to be too black or white. Too many Cowboy and Indian bed time stories. And since most politicians are having difficulty with Bush and his “moralizing”, they describe him as something akin to a “Messianic Imperialist”. So, instead of “following the money”, today, one needs to “follow the morals”. What’s Bush actually saying?
Then there’s this U.N. lifestyle that was inherited from the League Of Nations. Change that Nike commerical to “JUST TALK IT”. But again with Bush, he backs up what he says. He’s more of a DOER.
We already have 200,000 troops at Saddam’s front door. Today, an untold number of B-2 stealth bombers have been deployed to Iraq-land. We already have five aircraft carriers in Saddam’s neighborhood but today the USS Nimitz was ordered to deploy to the Persian Gulf come March 3. Also tagging along are a couple of guided missile cruisers (USS Chosin, Princeton, and Fitzgerald).
So, with Bush, it’s follow the MORALS and the MACHINERY! When one does that, you have a good clue where everything is headed- to war with Iraq, and soon!
IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR!
February 26, 2004
France now finds itself in Bush’s rear view mirror. Jacques Chirac finds himself about to be run-over if he doesn’t move shortly. He’s standing smack-dab in front of a “Coalition of the willing” who are about to knock the group of “unwilling” on their French bottoms.
France said today that a war with Iraq would split the international community. Say what? Hasn’t France already been about doing that for the last three decades, and especially the last three months?
The games are about over. It’s time for the Houston City council to get back to running the city and quit bickering over Iraq resolutions. The last time I checked, Mayor Brown had no line of authority or responsibility for a potential war in Iraq. Fix the pot-holes at home.
It’s time for the left-coast actors guild to get back to acting and to leave international relations to the diplomats who know what they are talking about. They too are now about to be faces in the rear view mirror.
Tony Blair got a welcome confirmation from the House Of Commons Wednesday. Vicente Fox started to change his tune and appears to be getting on board with Bush. Whether there is a second UN resolution or not, the Bush war machine is on the move and the U.N. could join the League Of Nations (in the rear view mirror) if they don’t start DOING what they are always SAYING!
Finally, there are the politicians who are against the war because it will take money away from their pork barrel. They want social programs here more than liberation there (wherever there is). And, it’s to that group that I most like seeing in the rear view mirror.
REALITY TV OR REAL LIFE?
February 25, 2004
It’s almost impossible to watch TV very long these days without hearing the triune names of Trista, Zora, and Evan. Let me begin with a confession. I’ve never once watched any of the TV “reality shows”. So, I am completely prejudiced in my opinions.
I think this whole crock-pot full of “reality shows” began with the SURVIVOR series, and quickly went downhill to the “Who Wants To Marry A Millionaire” or the female counterpart, “Bachelorette”.
Is anyone surprised that Zora and Evan have decided they really don’t like each other now that the show is over? Zora is reported to have said, “how can you really get to know someone in such a very “unrealistic environment”. Say what? I thought this was “reality TV”! And Trista? Whatever.
Listen, there are millions of people getting ready to face war head-on. Tens of thousands could die in a couple of weeks. N. Korea is talking nuclear war. And, what are we Americans all wrapped up in today? Reality TV? Listen, the world has enough SERIOUS REALITY for me.
You can’t help but see why most Muslims have such a major disgust with us when they see what we watch and what interests us, while most in their world are just wanting to know where their meal will come from tonight. While 50% of the world is making less than $2 a day, we’re into elegant dinners with the best of wine in a castle, with 20+ women begging for the hand of a construction worker no less.
Reality TV or real life? I’ll gladly take the latter, and I pray America will soon make some adjustments in it’s priorities: before they are made for us.
WHAT A WILD, WILD DAY!
February 24, 2004
On a day that I drove to Ft. Hood for a last meal with my son before he ships out to Kuwait, the stakes at the war table were raised greatly. Fifty percent of my sons company had already shipped out and he had an afternoon free, so I made the eight hour round trip drive to get in a few last-minute talks.
The divided UN Security Council saw the two competing groups propose their own ideas. The US, Britain, and Spain formally submitted a resolution while France, Germany, and Russia submitted a less formal proposal calling for many more months of inspections. Why not!
Then we have Dan Rather interviewing Saddam with the Iraqi leader challenging Bush to a debate. Say what? Has he lost his mind? While this high-profile interview is going on, word is out that Iraq may have drones already in place in America, ready to strike with the WMD’s that they don’t have.
Then this. Stratfor Intelligence is reporting that a major pow-wow took place between Saddam and old friend, Yevgeny Primakov of Russia. It’s said that Saddam has promised to destroy his missiles, allow American and British oil companies back in to Iraq, and fully cooperate with the inspectors (again). It’s said that Vladimir Voloshin is headed to the White House today to present the plan to Bush.
Talk about major decisions! Talk about high stakes and guts. Who’s bluffing? Who holds the winning hand? With the world on the brink of war (did I mention that N. Korea fired off a missile Monday?), what’s Bush to do? Can Tuesday be any more wild?
CHINA, RUSSIA, OR SYRIA?
February 23, 2004
It seems everything is a numbers game these days and you know what they say about numbers. You can make them say or prove anything you want.
As an example, I just read the highlights of the Bible Code II. Did you know that the world was going to end in nuclear holocaust in 2006? We only have three more years to live folks. Ever heard something like that before? I wouldn’t waste my money if I were you. Like I said, you can make numbers say anything you want.
So, Bush needs to take the number 15, as in the U.N. Security Council, and somehow extract the number nine from it. It takes NINE to pass a resolution. Who cares if France does their veto thing? Right now it appears that there are FOUR for-sure votes for a second resolution (US, UK, Spain, and Bulgaria) and four against (France, Germany, China, and Russia). Mexico has said no up until now, Pakistan is a Muslim nation so rule them out, and Syria is as radical as they come.
Most probably the US can expect the support from the super powers of Angola, New Guinea, Cameroon, and Chile which puts the US one short of the needed nine. So, where can they find that ONE needed vote? Did I mention that Powell is in China as I write this? If he can’t convince China, then our best shot is either Russia or Syria.
But in this high-stakes game of political intrigue you never know who might be bought off or who will cave in: maybe see the light? I seem to remember that Vicente Fox wanted Bush to help out with Mexican ID cards, and since the president of Spain just visted Fox, maybe he’s the candidate. I like that option better than China, Russia, or Syria.
Then again, Bush said he didn’t need a second resolution. Remember, the element of surprise is a major war tactic.
WHO IS UNDER-ESTIMATED?
February 21, 2004
It amazes me that after serving as governor of Texas and two years as president of the U.S. that some people still greatly under estimate George Bush. And it’s more than just under estimating, it’s under-cutting.
Actor (yes another one) Larry Hagman, while in Germany this past week, said that Bush was among other things: “a sad person, a dangerous figure, not well educated, and one who doesn’t get out in the world too much”. If my memory serves me right, Bush graduated from Yale with a BA degree, and he’s the only president in history to have an MBA (from Harvard nonetheless).
Maybe it’s that his religion and spiritual stature scares people. And you’d think that people would get that he’s secure in who he is and he’s not intimidated. Millions can march in the streets around the world against the war and he’s not moved. But, let’s be practical about this war thing.
IF, and that’s a very big IF, Bush were to back dwon from the war, here’s what would happen. His politcal base would feel betrayed, the Democrats would unload on him even though they’re against the war now, al-qaeda would be emboldened, and of course Saddam Hussein would be the worlds Arab hero. Can you imagine the liberal news networks televising 150,000 American troops headed back home: a lost cause and billions down the drain- for nothing? War? Oh yes!
So, Larry Hagman, Martin Sheen, Sean Penn, and whomever wants to attack Bush, you’re wasting your time. You rally need to get a REAL fix on who this man is. He is neither under educated nor intimidated by rhetoric. He’s a president who has a keen sense of who he is and his role in history.
TAKING A WAR BREAK!
February 20, 2004
There wasn’t anything really revealing about the “war news” today, but there sure was on the economic front, so let’s take a “war break” and look at the “other bad news”.
With the release of the December trade deficit numbers, there’s a real shot that 4Q 2002 could come in a negative, and here we go on that “double dip”. We just keep getting more and more in debt to other nations and one day they will call it in. The record-setting $44.2 billion for December was an eye-opener.
And, we may have just turned the corner on the deflation-inflation issue: from the former to the latter. The PPI came in at 1.6% and that was the highest in thirteen years. It won’t be that much each month but multiply it times 12 months and you can see that we’re talking nearly 20% inflation!
Gasoline is a very big part of that of course. It can’t go up any more. Can it? I mean $2 a gallon for regular? At least for Thursday, oil was down 37 cents to fall to $36.79 a barrel.
And, how about the federal debt! The ceiling was increased just about nine months ago and the government needs another hike already- and we’re not yet at war. There’s a site that I look at from time to time and as of 11:03:42PM GMT the fed. debt was $6,413,793,603,558.90 and rising! And the Dow only fell about 85 points to end at 7,914.
Bush is going to have some really tough sledding to get re-elected at these numbers. I’m not sure there is a rabbit in that political hat, let alone a chicken in every pot. And as I write this I’m thinking, maybe war isn’t all that bad to write about. This financial stuff is depressing. So, back to WAR in Friday evening’s commentary.
PS. A breakthrough! Miss Germany (Alexandra Vodjanikova) is in Baghdad to talk with Saddam. What a zoo- what a world. Beauty queens and actors leading foreign policy!
UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE?
February 19, 2004
How I long for the days of “wine and roses”, and the simplicity of life and death. Yes, even death. One loud boom and it was all over. Now, in war and life, you have to rely upon a lot of unconventional methods.
In Kuwait and eventually Iraq, our military is trying out KFC: otherwise known as Kuwait Fried Chicken. When you see our tanks and humvees tooling down the road with a couple of caged chickens strapped on top, don’t look twice. They’re our revamped “canary in the mine” warning system to alert our military to chemical or biological presence.
And water fights aren’t lmited to the college frat-houses either. I remember the day I hauled a hose from the ground level to the third floor, via a fire escape, and got even with the floor-thumpers who had denied me sleep the night before. Our military is ready with make-shift bridges, girder-platforms, and gap crossings just in case Saddam blows up numerous dams on the Tigris and Euphrates river. Talk about a “water-fight”. Hey, maybe they will put out the oil fires he’s thinking of starting as well.
And you thought you’d heard all there was to know about UN-conventional warfare? Get ready. There’s more coming than just chickens and water! Today it seems that whatever is “normal or conventional” is actually unconventional. But then there is talk of e-bombs and microwave bursts.
PS. Mark February 26th on your calendars. That’s the day the anti-war activists declare war (is that logical?) on DC e-mail, phones, and faxes. What a world.
HOURS- NOT WEEKS?
February 18, 2004
How long has Bush been talking tough on Iraq? I think it’s about twelve months now. Finally we got the “weeks not months” rhetoric not too long ago, meaning things were coming to a close. Ahh, then we had black Friday followed by the weekend “focus group”. You know, some 2.5 million war protesters world-wide. Got the message, thanks mucho.
Gold tumbled, the stock market roared back, and the talk was all about a war delay. Well, I think it’s just the opposite. Of course anyone reading this site for any length of time would know that; however, I think the stuff is about to hit the fan. I think the new line is “HOURS not WEEKS”.
Bush has drawn up a 48 hour scenario for Saddam. The Defense Department just gave Turkey a 48 hour get on the pot or off notice today. And, then there’s the 48 hour bombardment campaign. You do remember that 1982 movie with Nick Nolte and Eddie Murphy. And then eight years later there was the sequel, “Another 48 hours”.
One has to figure that war is not something that is announced 48 hours in advance, and one has to figure that part of what is going on has to be “disinformation”. So, if it is really HOURS and not WEEKS, it has to happen in 13 days or less (weeks being plural or 14 days). So, we’d be talking no later than March 4th.
PS. Did I mention the new moon ends March 4th (beginning Feb. 27th)? Is there any wonder Bush wants a decision by Feb. 28th while France wants one by March 14th? Circle March 4th on your calendar just for grins to see if “hours-not-weeks” is prophetic. Or just a cute thought. 
THE CHILD IS A SPOILED BRAT!
February 17, 2004
If ever anyone wondered about the motivations of one Jacques Chirac, wonder no more. I have been alluding to his (and France) aspirations for a few months now; however, he lost it in Brussels Tuesday.
After being shut out of the final NATO decision on Turkey, Chirac could not resist showing his childish side. In Transactional Analysis we learn the three behaviors of the homo sapien spaien (child, parent, adult). Chirac is acting like a child. He so wants to be the voice, the president of a united Europe. He knows that Schroeder is about to be ousted from Germany leaving him the heir apparent of the France-Germany anti-America block.
When the “new Europe” was affirmed by Rumsfeld a week ago, it was a dagger in Chirac’s ego. Last night he let loose against those Eastern European nations, He purposely singled out Bulgaria and Romania, two nations wanting in to the European Union. Chirac bluntly told them that they could not have done anything worse to damage their hopes of being a part of the EU than to back the U.S. How could they back the U.S.? Isn’t Chirac the god who decides for all the European nations? I was amazed at how blunt he was about how other nations should bow to France.
As I said last Friday, I think France’s day in the sun is over. Their moment of glory was the applause that they received after hearing Hans Blix last Friday. It’s all down hill from now for Chirac and France. But knowing his-their ego, I expect the reality will set in and France will now begin to slowly side with the U.S. Watch how the rhetoric begins to change. The “child” who can’t get his way after pouting usually tells the parent he wanted to obey all along. Right!
TO WAR OR NOT TO WAR?
February 16, 2004
Is there really a question?
How many times have you heard TV commentators say that America might have to go it ALONE? Yep, alone with the “Willing 20-some nations”. Now that Germany and Belgium shut France out of a final meeting and approved help for Turkey on the NATO question, I wonder if the press will mention that France is TRULY alone on that vote.
But seriously, after millions protested throughout the world this past weekend, one has to appreciate the complexity of the situation. Those not interested in war point to the inspector’s progress, the rockets they’ve found, three interviews with low-level scientists, a law by Saddam banning WMD is his coutry, additional paperwork, and the general carnage and cost of war.
Those for war can point to the lack of cooperation on substance, violations on the missles, lack of ability to interview top-level scientists alone, conditions on the U-2 flights, and lack of information on what happened to all those known WMDs.
Were there any other president in office other than Bush, chances are high that the war would not happen. But, Bush is a man of principles. When he says weeks , not months, he means it. Yes, there’s still time for Saddam to turn over the goods but remember, he IS Saddam!
My take is that Bush and the pro-war set took their biggest hit this past weekend and from here on out the tide goes out- for Saddam. In spite of the weekend maneuvers, I’m looking at Feb. 25-March 5th time frame- TO WAR!
A CAN-KICKING KID!
February 14, 2004
Back when I had to walk to school down a dirt road for about 2+ miles (yes, it’s really true) I always had my dog, Rex, to help me scope out rabbits, snakes, and other small creatures of the wild. I lived in the country in no-man’s land a few miles South of Neosho, Missouri.
My favorite game though was kick the can. I could never quite make it the whole 2+ miles with the same can. I’d either kick it into the creek, into a briar patch full of snakes, I’d rather not disturb, or I’d just get bored with it all.
I had a back-to-the-future memory visit today as I listened to some of the U.N. proceedings. Once more Blix, and his side-kick, kicked the Iraq inspection can down the road once more. Next report, March 1st. Next report March 14th. My question is what year? France wants to kick the can every two weeks. Hey, for the French, can-kicking is fun. Bush? Well, he’s about ready to kick something else!
I found it strange that Powell was so calm while the French were impassioned. I think I smell something going on. My bet is the U.S. will not go for a second resolution, but we’ll not say that. Instead of getting a veto from France, we’ll set back and let them suggest yet another resolution and then we can veto that.
Listen, we’ve kicked this can down the road for seventeen resolutions and twelve years. I think Bush is ready to apply the toe of his shoe in another direction. I still say Feb. 25-March 5th is when the fireworks will begin. Mark it down. Did I mention Bush wears cowboy boots?
PS. One of the best analyses that I heve seen as to why Jacques Chirac is being the horses tail that he is can be found at this web site: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo021403
HEY- DUCT TAPE THIS!
February 13, 2004
I think we’ve seen too many Billy Crystal & Robert De Niro movies played out in the press. I know that it’s hard to fill 24 hours of cable news space, but lets go back to the start of the last century.
Teddy was govenor of New York when he got credit for a phrase that he actually took from an African proverb, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” It’s as though the press has made a golden calf out of the first amendment. Every news outlet want to speak louder and longer.
Every day I read and hear what our battle plan will be, how many troops we have where, how many special ops we have in Iraq, and what flight the next reservists heading to Kuwait will be on. Does the public have a right to know all this? I think a little duct tape over our mouths would go a long way to saving some soldier’s lives.
I don’t have a problem moving our troops out of Germany and into Italy (wine trumps beer anyway). I don’t have any problem moving our 35,000 military men and women out of South Korea (they don’t need to be there now). I’d even encourage a re-do of NATO and leave France out entirely. All of these major strategic moves seem logical in today’s changed digital military world.
But, I believe we’re asking too much when we try and nail down where everyone is being deployed, at what time each carrier and battle ship will arrive in the Persian Gulf, and exactly what our strategy will be to take Saddam in the first forty-eight hours.
In times of war and heightened national security(I believe today qualifies), we don’t need all the information we’re being given. We don’t need to micro-analyze all THAT. We really need to duct-tape THIS: our mouth.
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