THERE’S A TIME & A SEASON
June 30, 2004
America is the land of “microwave lifestyles”. It’s assumed that one can graduate from college and immediately have a cushy, high-paying job, a new home, and a house full of furniture. What happened to the days when you got married, and moved into an apartment with half the rooms empty? Anyone old enough to remember those days?
Many remember Viet Nam and the press is getting bored with the violence in Iraq. We are beginning to hear the volume of rhetoric increase over the loss of military lives. You see, it’s assumed that we march into baghdad, announce our arrival, set up shop, establish a new government, and then move out in 90 days. Well, you can assume it all day long, but it’s not happening.
We’re a nation with no patience and enormous lust and greed for anything we want: which is a lot. The thought of having to wait for something is a fading concept. It’s more than a me generation, it’s a me now society. don’t blame the kids, blame the adults who fostered it and gave it life.
Last night I was reminded of all this as I attended a Tom Delay dinner wherein he spoke of how he has battled for the end to partial-birth abortion for 12 years. TWELVE! And this is the year that a bill will be passed. He has had patience and waited for his moment. Then this morning, I just posted a story that said women who support pro-life are now in the majority.
You see, christians are no different than non-christians when it comes to patience. Many anti-abortion zealots just could not wait so they yelled, screamed, demonstrated, blocked abortion clinic doors, and even shot and killed abortion doctors. But, it was not the time: now it is. Wouldn’t it be nice to know things like the tribe of Issachar (I chron. 12:32)? and, be able to wait!
OPEN & CLOSED CASE!
June 29, 2004
I love the many phrases that we have and I have to wonder how people from other nations, speaking other languages, make any sense out of some of the things we say. But that’s not my point here. For me 9-11 was an OPEN & CLOSED event that’s started an OPEN & CLOSED war, that will last the rest of our lives: unless we wipe each other off the face of the earth first. Did I mention, I’m an optimist?
The number one CLOSED evangelist for the world is UBL, followed by Bill Gates. Say what?
UBL is trying to sell 1.3 billion Muslims that HE, and he alone, has the answers to the world: that HIS BRAND of Islam is right. You saw where HIS BRAND of Islam (a closed system) leads in how the Taleban operated in Afghanistan. You disagree with the head man and you’re shot, in public, for all to see and fear.
America stands for (though in reality it’s not entirely true) an OPEN SYSTEM where people from diverse backgrounds and cultures can live together- openly. The U.S. is made up of immigrants of varied cultures. Even we natives have taken on distinctive lifestyles. The list is too long to even begin.
We are in Iraq in part because we want to FREE the citizens of an autocratic, dictatorial (do it MY WAY only) mentality. People who have lived under the Pharoah (as the Israeli’s did), have a hard time adjusting to liberty and life in the desert. Just ask Moses. Oh, that’s right, you can’t, but you can read about it.
And then there is Bill Gates, the king of the American techno-economic system. No one can have the Microsoft code; however, Linux and Apache are on his heels and if I had to guess I’d say it’s all over for MSFT. The Open system mentality is coming after Microsoft as well.
How do I know? Simple. It’s an open and closed case! ![]()
CHINA-MART : THE FUTURE?
June 28, 2004
I wonder what Sam would think about his company if he were alive today? Could he have possibly envisioned where Wal-Mart was headed when he stirred the waters in Rogers, Arkansas? Whatever he could have imagined I feel pretty certain that he didn’t see the relationship his first stores would eventually have with China.
You see, between Wal-Mart and China, American corporations can’t stand a chance: there is no pricing power. In fact, Wal-Mart and China just might cause Bush a second term as president. More than 2,000,000 jobs have left the U.S. in the past three years- most headed to the Far East. China can manufacture all the goods the word would ever need. I am surprised that the pair of shoes that I bought yesterday were made in India- not China.
Wal-Mart has become the largest grocer over night. Whatever they decide to go into, they take over first place instantly. They are the biggest jeweler now- in the world. They are considering going into the banking business. And get this. Wal-Mart is thinking of selling cars at about the same time China is thinking about manufacturing them en mass. Hasta luego Detroit.
Wal-Mart is now more than 2% of America’s GDP. And, the plans are to add 800,000 more employees in the next five years. So, are we ready for a name change? How does China-Mart sound?
Sorry Sam, just kidding.
WHAT DOES GREEN STAND FOR?
June 26, 2004
Before I answer that question, let me pass on a favorite expression of Richard Russell: “Inflate Or Die”!”. When there is a hint of deflation in the air, the only thing that the Fed can do to keep us from falling into a deep black hole is INFLATE, INFLATE, INFLATE!
The GREEN in Alan’s last name stands for MONEY, and he’s printing it faster than any human in history! This year the money supply has been growing at a rate of $20B a month. Last week it grew $19.9B (for the WEEK). At this rate Greenie will add $1T (as in trillion) to the money supply. In his career as Fed Head, he’s added $5T to the money supply or more than all of the Fed Heads since the Fed was created in 1913.
So, the SPAN at the end of GREEN means to exSPAND the money supply and keep politicians happy. So, where’s all this LIQUIDITY going? It has been going into the real estate market. IF, and that’s a very big IF, Alan could keep up this pace, my and your home would be worth 15% more next year; however, storm clouds are on the horizon.
As I wrote yesterday, the bond market has formed a classical “head & shoulders” top and I’m afraid the bond market bubble is over. Along with that bubble will go the housing market bubble because long term interest rates are on the RISE (not short term).
So, GREEN stands for go-go-go and expand the money supply as fast as possible. Deflation is knocking on the door but once it’s open INFLATION comes barging in right behind. Ultimately GREEN stands for no good and Alan will go down in history as the WORST Fed Head ever!
PS. What is he could for? Absolutely nothing! (from Tuesday commentary) ![]()
WAS THAT A DOMINO FALLING?
June 25, 2004
Alan GreenSPIN gave us his 13th cut in a row Wednesday and Wall Street greeted it with boos and a lot of red numbers. FMOC then sent out their narrative SPIN on the rate reduction and the bond market turned thumbs down as well. So, it looks like the number 13 is still unlucky even if it’s not Friday.
The bond market tanked as a result of Alan’s report and that could just be domino #1. The long bond (30 yr) was at 4.06 on June 15th and now less than two weeks later it is at 4.56%. This is not a good sign! When bonds start tanking like that, mortgage rates are going to be domino #2. And, I just posted a story that mortgage rates increased this week for the first time in eons.
If mortgage rates increase that will stop the refinancing, otherwise known as “spending money”, and domino #3 will have fallen. With no spending money, the consumer will quit buying and deflation moves into full bloom as domino #4 flips over. With falling consumer sales, corporations back off increasing production and start laying off more people as domino #5 falls. Got the picture?
You see, Alan’s halo has fallen off his head and with it the brightness that blinded people from seeing that the King (of the economy) has no clothes. What’s worse, the economy is naked as well having been built on bubbles, bangles, and beads.
Did I also mention it was built with cards and dominos also?
TWO HOT POTATOES!
June 24, 2004
On this side of the Atlantic Ocean, the hot topic is the economy, which isn’t: hot. For the 13th time in a row Alan and crew lowered interest rates to try and get some economic momentum for the Republicans. The Fed funds rate now stands at 1%. I was alive when that last happened but at age 15, I had not a clue about it all.
Many on Wall Street were looking for a 50 basis point drop, but a 0.75% interest rate is a scary thought because before long Alan won’t be able to cut any more. Will this latest cut do the trick? Nope! It’s a BEAR market and it has to run its course. Good time to buy a car- lousy time to try and live off savings.
On the other side of the pond Hamas and a couple of other Islamic radicals said that they wanted a 90 day peace. Three hours later Israeli helicopters rained down some fire-power on a Palestinian Qassam rocket crew in Southern Gaza while other leaders of Hamas denied any peace overtures.
Meanwhile Bush said he didn’t just want a peace deal, he wanted to dismantle Hamas. I mean this president is hard as nails. He seems to really be serious about this terrorism stuff. Anyway, these two hot potatoes will remain so throughout the hot summer!
WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?
June 23, 2004
Can anyone answer the question of the song above? It’s a decade plus old song by Edwin Starr, called “War”. And the answer is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! So, what’s the point Ernie?
America has been living a blessed life for a couple hundred years because of our foundation in God, integrity, ingenuity, and hard work: probably in that order. And then there’s the fact that America had little competition. That was then, this is now.
Now, China can produce things 30x cheaper than America and about 6x cheaper than most third-world nations. India can turn out computer gurus faster than any other nation. The whole world combined can PRODUCE THINGS beyond what it has a capacity to want or need. The end result is called DEFLATION! And in a nation with as much debt as America has, it’s called SUICIDE.
The Fed is set to lower rates 1/4 to 1/2% in an attempt to halt the slide into big-time economic trouble. It will be the 12th or 13th such interest rate drop without an increase. In addition, Alan Greenspan is printing money faster than any time in history. The US$ is floating around the world like it was worthless and that’s where it is heading. Our fiat currency will soon be worth what the song WAR said above: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
Since 1913, when the Federal Reserve Board was created to save our US$, the US$ has lost 96% of it’s value. As our population in America ages and looks to SAVINGS for their income, they are finding that the savings interest rate on their money is next to nothing. In essence as the Fed drops rates again, they are saying SPEND those Dollars, please! Get rid of those Dollars, they are worth less each day.
And then ONE DAY, it will happen. One day the world will no longer believe in the almighty US$ (it’s already happening as the US$ has lost about 20% of it’s value from the most recent highs), and then the world’s economic crisis really begins and America’s bright future ends: unless we make some radical changes and soon!
PS. If the Fed drops rates 1/2 to 0.75% say goodbye to money market funds!
A LITTLE BIT OF THIS & THAT!
June 22, 2004
Is the world into reading or what? It seems that everyone is writing or selling a book. I had to put in an order for Harry Potter’s newest book that will take at least a week: this after having already shipped 1.3 million books.
Oh yes, and then there’s Bill & Hill. She got $8 mil for her memoirs. Next year Bill gets $12 mil for his memoirs. That’s $20 mil from two people who testified under oath that they couldn’t remember anything! What memoirs!
Tuesday and Wednesday all eyes are on Alan. Will he lower rates .25 basis points or .50? The Fed has already reduced rates eleven times. There is only 1.25% left to go before the government starts paying us to borrow! I can’t wait. It’s a wild, wild market out there.
The housing BUBBLE is on the verge of explosion. Can real estate get any more expensive. I noted that the average home in San Diego now goes for more than $500,000 (average)! I also note that in 1Q 2003 we set a record for home foreclosures. The previous record was 4Q 2002. Get the picture?
Finally, there’s Venezuela. I guess I should rightly say there’s Castro’s son, Chavez. He’s supposed to grant elections in August but he’d lose so what do you think he’s going to do? I’m hearing the word stall. And then I’m hearing the world more revolt and revolution. It’s as though the people just can’t buy a break (it takes Dollars to do that and Chavez only deals in Bolivars).
PS. Dean was the latest of nine Democratic presidential hopefuls to make it official. He wants Bush out and he’s the only man for the job! Right!
ANOTHER NEW JERSEY?
June 21, 2004
It wasn’t that long ago when the Democrats came up with a new game plan for failing politicians. It was in New Jersey, where Bob Torricelli was being soundly defeated, that the Democrats pulled the “fast & legal” card. With just a few months to go and their candidate way behind in the polls, ole Bob stepped down and Frank Lautenberg stepped up.
It worked and worked well, and the Democrats thought they were on their way to taking back the Senate. But, on the way to the elections, something bad went wrong and the Republicans won back a majority in the Senate, in spite of the New Jersey loss.
Well, now it’s on to the West Coast where almost anyone (but Simon) could beat Gray Davis for the governorship. In fact, he is so hated that a recall referendum is about to be successful. So, we’ll see if politics can win out over ego. Davis has this ego and he thinks he can win the recall re-election campaign. Most California Democrats don’t feel that way. They are looking for a new candidate.
In fact, the best policy would be for ole Gray to lay his ego down and let the Democratic Lt. Governor take over. Diane Feinstein has removed her name as a possibility to run in case he stepped down. If ole Gray won’t step down, he’s probably in for a nasty fall. After all, the odds are good that he’ll be facing the “Terminator”. I am talking about Arnold Schwarzenegger. Someone check that spelling please. ![]()
NOW WHAT MUST HAPPEN?
June 19, 2004
I think everyone knows that the press is more than LIBERAL! Hugo Chavez thinks their Satanic. Of course anyone who disagrees with him is demonic. The point I am getting ready to make is that we’re going to be seeing more and more stories of how Iraq is a cesspool needing to be drained: of U.S. involvment.
The Washington Post fired the first salvo that I’ve seen. One of the authors, Ravi Chandrasekaran (that’s some last name) basically is saying that U.S. troops are ready to get out of Dodge, otherwise known as Baghdad. In fact the implication of the article is that all our troops think we shouldn’t be there.
So, here we go! Bush made a mistake. We went without U.N. aproval. There were no WMD’s. The administration fudged on the intel facts. Blah, blah, blah. So, the question is how long can all this go on (and it’s just starting) before something has to happen? And, what could those happenings be?
Well, how about if we catch Saddam? How about if we catch his two sons? Maybe we locate and kill UBL? Or, we transfer some of our troops to Iran? I mean Bush has to have something BIG happen to take the heat off the “kill a day” theme that’s growing. The tens of thousands of troops that took off their uniforms and fled are now creating havoc at every turn. Yesterday they blew up a generator and shut the electricity off 50% of the city of Fullujah. Of course it’s a good strategy to have 1% of the population make 50% unhappy. That’s what I’d try to do if I were Saddam.
So, what must happen to stem this tide that’s about to wash across the American political shoes? I think we’ll know soon enough: and it will be BIG!
FOUR LAWS OF CONCENTRATION!
June 18, 2004
I’m sure that you’ve heard it said that you are what you eat, what you think, and what you do. While in Florida this week, I had a few minutes to do some “people watching” (one of my favorite hobbies) and check out my somatotyping skills. While sitting in a very busy mall enjoying my triple latte, I was reminded again what I’m about to pass on to you.
It’s been so long since I learned these four principles that I’m not sure where I picked them up, but it’s been a guide to much of my life for nearly 30 years now. Ready?
First, you ARE what you concentrate on. Whatever you allow into your mind is what fuels your life. Are your thoughts negative or positive?
Second, what you concentrate on GROWS. Think of that new car you want. Think of it often and all of a sudden you’ll be seeing that car everywhere. Think about “red heads” and you’ll be amazed at how many you can count in a day.
Third, what you concentrate on SEEMS REAL. What you want (your goal) is obviously not what you currently have, but something you want to have. So, though it’s not yours yet, there’s this law that everything is twice created: in the mind and then in the physical realm.
Finally, you always FIND what you concentrate on. So, be careful of what thoughts you allow into your mind. It takes just a small seed, a little idea, a small thought to grow into something mighty, or something tragic.
FIRST HAND PROOF!
June 17, 2004
I was in Florida Tuesday and Wednesday: mainly the Orlando area. It’s the land of the Orlando Magic and the land of Disney. In other words, you’re in a whole new fantasy world. Fantasy is becoming fact though.
One of the many, many signs that struck my interest was the one over a store just outside the gates of Disney World advertizing T-shrits. The sign said….5 for $9.95! Say what, I rubbed my eyes as we sped past and thought to myself, “what’s the gimmick”. I got the answer fifteen minutes later. No gimmick!
One of our stops was at an Outlet Mall where you can buy every kind of Nike T-shirt you’d ever want, not to mention hundreds of styles of tennis, running, walking, and just plain shoes. Shirts weren’t quite so cheap there though. You could get ONE for $9.99 or four cents more than you could buy FIVE down the road. Of course those down the road did not bear a Nike Swoosh!
I checked the labels of more than two dozen articles. Absolutely every one of those 24+ articles were made in one of four countries: Malaysia, Mexico, Hondorus, or China. It seems that nothing is MADE in America any more with the exception of Dollars. Greenspan is making them as fast as the printers will go.
It was a scary thought as I stood there in this mega Nike store looking at all those shirts, tennis shoes, and other clothing items. Almost all were marked 50-75% off what you’d pay here in Houston for the same item. And none of them were made here.
What would America do if the rest of the world boycotted us? More importantly, what’s going to happen to our economy with no pricing ability and deflationary pressures such as what I witnessed? Most probably, what Greenspan will do is lower rates next week at the Feds next meeting. Then what?
Florida Blues
June 16, 2004
I am in Florida and the internet is not working well, so I will post on Thursday am. ![]()
Florida Blues
June 16, 2004
I am in Florida and the internet is not working well, so I will post on Thursday am. ![]()










