WHAT SILVER LINING, WHERE?
July 31, 2004
As I scan the dozens of news sources, I can’t find anything substantial that tells me things are about to turn around and get better. I already commented Friday morning on how BAD the unemployment numbers really were and the stock market saw it too. All three indexes were down for the week.
Houston is losing more jobs! Anadarko is eliminating 300 here in Houston. Did I mention we’re now in August and just the thought of going outside is painful?
Larry Flynt (Hustler magazine publisher) is going to run for governor in California. Arnold still hasn’t made up his mind. Hey, it’s California, anything can happen. In Iraq, we’re still losing service men almost every day. Saddam is releasing a tape a day. And, his daughters gave an interview in Jordan proving there’s no sanity coming out of that nation.
My favorite investment (gold) had one of those “hold-your-nose” days as it tanked $8, not wanting the Dow to go it alone. And, it seems that Kobe is going to run Laci a race to see which trial has the most coverage. Move over OJ!
Well, it is August and Bush is taking a month off. Maybe we should all take a month off and just chill. But since it’s Texas and August (and no pay) that we’re talking about, that probably isn’t such a good idea. But, alas I’m still looking for that silver lining in the midst of the storm(s). I know there’s one out there somewhere.
IT’S ALL IN THE SPIN!
July 30, 2004
News hit the street at 7:30 am Houston time today as it does on the first Friday of the new month. The new? Unemployment dropped from 6.4% to 6.2%. Hillary Kramer is then interviewed on Fox News saying how GREAT the news is. And, when Saddam is caught the market will rise another 500 points and maybe 1,000 points over a few days.
Are you excited? Don’t be!
More SPIN from Wall Street, sold to you by people who make a living off of selling you stock. Or sold to you by people with a vested interest in Wall Street. So, guess what. They are always spinning things as positive.
But, read the data again. Get beyond the headline statistic. There were 44,000 MORE jobs LOST in July. Economists had forecast a POSITIVE number, not a loss or negative one but everyone will be talking about how GREAT things are. To make matters worse, 470,000 (as in almost a half million) people got so discouraged that they abandoned job searches because they believed there were no jobs available.
So, the market opens in 35 minutes from the time I post this commentary. I wouldn’t go out and buy and stock right away- unless it’s gold stocks. Of course the spot gold price is down $2.50 as I write this but once again, that’s the headline story. The real story is just the opposite. 
IT’S A WILD, WILD, WORLD!
July 30, 2004
If there was anything more going on, I am not sure my “fuse box” could handle it all. As I sat down to have a sip of my 180 degree, triple grande latte, I realized that I had missed putting a commentary on this site this morning (Thursday).
So, let me spit out a couple of items just to assure you that I am well (maybe not mentally) and alive. So, how about some crazy predictions?
Democrats and press will be eating their words shortly as evidence of WMD’s start coming into play. Saddam and UBL will both be found and killed in the next few months. Iraq will achieve a semblence of Democracy that no one thinks possible. A major hedge fund will report it’s bankrupt shortly. The Fed’s pending $230 Billion bond sale will be a flop. Texas will have a new redistricting plan as the Democratic Senators can’t live in New Mexico forever.
Okay, enough hot water for the day. Back to some normalcy Friday. But, there’s nothing like going out on the limb and then attempting to saw it off at the same time.
WHO IS DOING WHAT TO WHOM?
July 27, 2004
Bush is getting lambasted for running up the Federal debt. There’s a good reason though, maybe two. We are at war and then there was 9-11 that shook the foundations of the economic community. You can add to that just the natural need to inhale.
Having said that, it was during the 90’s that HALF of all our federal debt was created: $2.9 TRILLION to be exact. You can add to that the crazy “irrational exuberance” that Greenspan talked about and more importantly allowed. Then there was the massive amount of corporate fraud and debt.
We then see the entry of George W. Bush into the office of president and he’s now getting the blame for the economic mess that we’re in. It reminds me of sport penalties. Someone takes a cheap shot at another player while the referee isn’t looking. The receiver of the blow reacts (without checking to see where the ref is) by smacking his attacker and he gets caught and hit with a penalty.
Clinton and Greenspan actually took the first illegal (and immoral) shots and Bush is getting the flag.
Note, I am not saying that Bush is right, he’s just getting more credit than he’s due- in a negative sense.
But ultimately, I must ask the real question. Did Clinton do it to Bush or are we the people really doing it to ourselves? Isn’t it our insatiable greed, desire, and lust beyond reason that’s allowing politicians to represent us in the fashion they are? Won’t we vote for the politician that promises us more? Hey, now I’m making this too personal, right?
HARVARD & HOLLYWOOD!
July 26, 2004
Everyone has the right to their opinion and they have the right to voice it: so here’s mine!
Once upon a time in a nation far removed from ours, the church and the state set the mores for life. I am talking the good old U.S. of A some 50 years ago, before the USSC went bananas. And in a time when common sense and the common man was the model. My how things have changed in just 4-5 decades.
Today we’re proving that the pen is mightier than the sword. Today, the American social structure is being dictated more by Harvard and Hollywood than anything else. The complexities of life, the advent of the digital age, and globalization has caused the normal man to shrink back from taking a leading role in matters of societal life. And the vacuum is being filled by some crazy offerings.
Far be it from an actor in Hollywood to back off though. And some of the most radical ideas come from our universities. It’s been said that you can come up with the most idiotic and lunatic idea ever, and yet find a professor in a couple of our colleges that would agree with you.
Life has become all to uncommon because the common man has retreated from the front lines. Not all actors are weird of course. Ronald Reagan proved that point. He proved it by being one of the most common, straight-forward communicators we’ve had in maybe a century. He made things simple, he spoke in simple terms, and he related to the average person.
Harvard (can you say theorists?) and Hollywood (can you say Barbara Streisand?) are trying to take us and form us in an image that’s more theatre than real life. Of course when you live in the world of theory and film it’s hard to tell what’s real and what’s fantasy. God help us if the common man follows too closely behind.
DUMBING DOWN THE INTEL!
July 23, 2004
Yesterday we got the first of several reports that show that the Twin Towers disaster was an intelligence nightmare. There was enough blame to go around the CIA and FBI several times over.
Then yesterday the president’s motorcade was buzzed by a private plane. An accident but what if it were terrorists? Last week while in Africa a man got onto the president’s press plane and came within yards of Bush before being apprehended. How are these things happening?
America has the greatest wealth in the world. We have the most sophisticated technology. We are the leaders in the digital revolution. And yet, our intelligence seems as though it’s not.
All politicas aside, where are the WMD’s that numerous Intel communities said Iraq had? Most importantly, what’s it going to take to stem the tide of what looks like a massive “dumbing-down” of our intelligence community?
THE COST OF FREEDOM!
July 22, 2004
It seems that there is a report every day of yet another service man killed in Iraq. It hurts every time we hear of a service man who gives his all for his or her nation. It is also riveting when we hear the name and find out that he’s a resident of out State or city.
I’m not sure who it was, but I believe Stalin who said, “It’s a tragedy when some one is killed: it’s a statistic when ten thousand are killed.” The 3,000 that were killed at the World Trade Center cannot become just a statistic. We must remember them and the fallen warriors so far in this war on terrorism by staying the course.
America spends more than $400 BILLION a year on defense. If you took the top twenty nations right behind us and totalled up their combined spending on defense, it would be almost equal to what the U.S. spends.
Right now the U.S. has more than 255,000 troops scattered around the globe. The majority are in Iraq of course (148,000 as of this writing); however, we also have 71,000 in Germany, 39,000 in Japan, 38,000 in South Korea, 14,000 in the U.K. and so on.
The cost of freedom is bought with billions of dollars and thousands of lives. We cannot forget the cost of freedom, not can we back down from it’s costs.
THE GOD’S SMILED TUESDAY!
July 21, 2004
George Bush got the “thumbs-up” yesterday as the god’s of fate smiled down on the recently beleagured President. All of those nine Democratic presidential candidates just had some of the air taken out of their sails.
I said it a couple of months ago and maybe it will come true. Maybe fate will smile on Bush and allow him a capture of Saddam in a few months, and then a few months before the election, he will nab UBL. I mean, how could America (at least a majority) not vote for Bush with that track record?
Besides taking out Uday and Qusay, a treasure load of names, sixty million in cash, phone numbers, and plans were also found. I am sure there are a lot of scared terrorists on the run now
I know, I know. It’s the economy stupid! Well, you just never know how life might turn out. The economy could brighten briefly, George could get re-elected, and then turn over to the Democrats in 2008 an economy sicker than the one Clinton gave him.
Stranger things have happened. At least for one day Bush got to smile and put all of those eighteen words in his State of the Union speech behind him.
HE’S NOT CLINTON OR NIXON!
July 20, 2004
One of the mistakes that we humans make in life is when we see a pattern, we then apply that pattern to ALL things. Haven’t we heard that it’s the “exceptions” that prove the rule? Thus we set up boxes and put people in them.
I don’t buy the argument that keeps showing up recently by the press, who have not a clue about much of anything relating to war, that Saddam planned not to fight our invading forces. The theory is that Saddam knew he couldn’t win and so he retreated to fight another day in a more guerilla-type warfare. Bunk!
Great theory but theories are a dime a dozen. Now, while neither those running that flag up the pole can prove their point, neither can I prove it’s not so. So, let’s get to what I believe is an absolute that I can stand on and it’s this. BUSH DOES NOT FIT THE PATTERN! In essence, Bush is the exception.
UBL thought he had America figured out. He was wrong and as a result his life was greatly altered and one day it will be ended. He thought Bush was like Clinton in that he’d lob a few bombs into Afghanistan and then call it a day. Wrong.
Every day we hear of another service man or woman dying in Iraq and the press is playing it like, “How long will this go on before we pull out”? Are you kidding me. Are we going to have wasted 149 lives to date and walk out like wimps?
As the NY Times said today, “Troop losses drove Clinton out of Somalia, Eisenhower out of Lebanon, Johnson and Nixon out of Viet Nam.” But let me give you a clue. Troop losses are NOT going to drive Bush out of Iraq because he’s a different president. Maybe one we’ve never seen before : be it good or bad!
THE EVIL EMPIRE?
July 19, 2004
As nine presidential hopefuls debate sixteen words in the January State Of The Union speech, the rest of the world is now talking about the other two-thirds of Bush’s “Evil Empire”.
Iraq is far from a done deal militarily; however, Iraq is not a threat in the terms that we’re now speaking of Iran and N. Korea. Many members of the U.N. are now voicing concerns about Iran’s nuclear plans.
Meanwhile in N. Korea a hidden second nuclear plant is believed to exist. Things are so serious on the Asian continent that China is now becoming more engaged in the process of cooling N. Korea’s rhetoric. Up until now, China was content in sitting on the sidelines and enjoying America’s dilemma. But, if a war breaks out, China’s future dream could be altered greatly.
Maybe we shouldn’t impeach Bush. Maybe Graham will retract his statements. Maybe Bush isn’t the evil one as Democrats have been picturing him recently, but it could just be that Iraq, Iran, and N. Korea do hold that title.
ADULTERY TO IMPEACHMENT
July 17, 2004
Just when you think you’ve heard it all, along comes a day like Friday, July 18th: or was that the 13th?
Mr. Clean in the NBA is accused of a third degree felony. Mr. Endorsement of the sports genre is charged with rape. I am talking about Kobe of coruse. He’s the man whom all others said could do no wrong. He’s right behind Michael and Tiger as the most wanted “pitch-man” for shoes, hamburgers, and you name it.
Right after the charge was filed in Colorado, Kobe and wife came forth with well-prepared statements. Kobe says he committed adultery but not rape. His wife of course stands by her man. All the Laker fans could care less as long as he plays this season, since they have now signed Payton and Malone.
On the East coast, one of the nine presidential hopefuls got major attention by his statement that Bush should be IMPEACHED? Say what? Mr. Moral and Mr. Christian should be impeached for misleading America into a war with Mr. Nice Guy, Saddam Hussein? What has the world come to? And, I am not even going to touch the conspiracy theory from England. You know, Tony Blair having killed
David Kelly or put a contract out on him.
All this sure makes Wall Street look like a “B” rated movie doesn’t it. By the way the Dow had a nice rally today but the S&P500 and Nasdaq were down for the week.
HE LOVES ME- HE LOVES ME NOT!
July 16, 2004
I’m going to return again to the economic crime scene since I said on Monday that this week might be crucial in many ways. We saw the bond market come crashing down on Tuesday. Thursday we saw the three major indices drop for the third day in a row. That has only happened five times before in 2003.
While the Wall Street “stock hawks” keep telling you to give them YOUR money to play with because we’ve entered a new BULL market, wise observers are simply trying to figure out what we’re facing: deflation or inflation. The economic gods love me, they love me not.
Here’s my take. We’re seeing BOTH deflation and inflation at the same time. For you see there are two kinds of each. We are facing on the one hand PRICE DEFLATION and on the other hand MONETARY INFLATION.
You can buy almost anything but homes at a reduced price today versus a year ago, and soon homes will start dropping in value as well as that bubble bursts. Corporations have no power to increase prices with productivity as high as it is and with China capable of manufacturing whatever the world wants at very low prices.
To combat price deflation, Greenspan is printing money at a rate that will add $1.7 TRILLION more dollars to the supply this year. So, eventually we’ll see massive inflation- once we get through price deflation. It’s not an either-or, but an and-also.
EVEN PROTOPLASM DOES IT!
July 15, 2004
On Monday I said that I thought this would be the week that all hell would break loose on the financial markets and so far we’re seeing a few cracks in the dam but the BIG BREAK hasn’t manifested yet. Well, if you are in BONDS, it has broken. Bonds took a staggering drop on Tuesday- historic one day drop! Greenie spoke and didn’t give any assurances to Wall Street.
On June 15th the 30 yr long bond stood at 4.16%, and at the close of the day Wednesday, it was at 4.88%, as you can see on the left hand column of this page. Even more interesting is the ten year note which now stands at 3.92% when it was at 3.11% a month ago.
The Dow was up on Monday but it’s had two days of losses as have the Nasdaq and S&P 500. So what have we here? In spite of what the “stock hawks” have to say, this baby is headed down, down, down. The massive 18 year BULL market of 1982 to 2000 isn’t going to go away in 2-3 years. History shows that on average a BEAR market will last one-third as long as the BULL market. So, we may be at the half-way mark of this ugly BEAR!
What goes up, must come down! Or, as the title above indicates, whatever EXHALES has to also INHALE! It’s one of nature’s laws that even the organic and inorganic substances that constitute a minute living cell (protoplasm) must embrace. So, after 18 years of exhaling, we’re going to see a few more years of inhaling!
PS. Did I mention that the $1 TRILLION+ per DAY deficit that our federal government is running this year and maybe even more next year, is not good as well?
SO NOW WHAT?
July 14, 2004
I’m sure you’ve heard the question before. What happens when the barking dog catches the car he’s chasing? It was Napoleon Hill who said, “Make sure your ladder is against the right building as you climb the ladder of success.”
And the point is?
Bush has enjoyed a high degree of success in getting what he’s wanted in the first three years of his presidency in spite of the slim majority in Congress. Unlike his situation with judge appointees, Bush has pretty much had his way on key issues.
Bush got the Democrats to join him in a war resolution against Iraq. He has pushed through two major tax bills. He got his massive Medicare bill passed. And then thre are a host of other victories for this gun-slinging Texan.
Okay, so how’s it all working out? The victory in Iraq is now producing nearly one death a day and the rhetoric is getting louder. The Democrats who voted for the war are now saying that they were deceived in the intelligence information or they wouldn’t have voted for it. In essence, they take no responsibility for whatever messes occur there now.
The economy is also not doing well and unemployment has sky-rocketed to a nine year high. Of course the Democrats are claiming that it’s the tax cuts for the rich that are causing the problem. And 2003-04 will produce a ONE TRILLION Federal deficit.
Truth or reality aside, regardless of what the outcome may be come November 2004, right now things aren’t looking very good and the reason is because Bush has had his way. The Democrats are on the “hunt” and they have Bush and his record in their cross-hairs. So, now what?
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