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A MATTER OF PERCEPTION, OR?

The internet has changed the news landscape BIG TIME, and the tremors are still being felt at the major networks. It was around 1997 that I began to feel the FREEDOM. We lost the second newspaper here in Houston (Post) but I gained 7,000 other news outlets. I no longer had to eat what I was being fed: I could choose what I wanted to eat! I discovered the internet!

You may not realize it, but Fox News has shaken the major news outlets BIG TIME as as well. It was at this time that I decided that maybe a few of my friends (I only had a few) might like a single source where bits and pieces of news from a couple dozen sites might be gathered. Thus this site that you’re reading.

Bush and his administration are now causing a stir by even going around the current crop of news purveyors and their “filters” as he calls it. It’s the politically correct word for ‘prejudice’. Can you believe how BAD things are going in Iraq? Now, that’s if you just listen to the NEWS networks. For every person who has gone there personally, they come back saying how wonderful things are. Say what?

I guess the icing on the cake, or the stake in the heart, had to be the most recent poll taken in Baghdad. More specifically, 75% of the people want to see our troops stay in Iraq for an extended time frame, and 85% said they didn’t want the U.S. to pull out too soon. Two different ways to ask the question. You do know that you can get the results you ‘want’ by how you ask the question don’t you?

The moral of the story is this. Know what ‘presuppositions’ the writer of the news is coming from. What color are his or her glasses? Is there an independent attitude or a political bias (which isn’t all that bad if you know what it is up front, so you can discount it appropriately). Case in point would be the LA Times.

For you see, it’s more than just a matter of perception, it’s a matter of integrity as well.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND- “NO!”

One of the more wise principles that I’ve learned over the years is that the hardest thing a person ever does is to convince a TEENAGER that NO is a complete sentence. Having survived three teenagers, seen one die at age 17, and still working with one that’s about to turn 15, I know what I’m talking about. Five will pretty well do you in, or at least me.

It seems that this is a lesson lost on the citizens of California though. Maybe Arnold can TERMINATE the unending requests for more and more; Gray Davis sure couldn’t. The fifth largest economy in the world is BILLIONS of dollars in debt and their bond rating has sunk to “Junk” status, and yet they want more. I wonder what it’s going to take to get the lifestyle thinking back that says one doesn’t always get what they want.

I know California is an exception to almost everything, but enough already! Three headlines gave me cause for today’s commentary.

The grocery clerks are ON STRIKE. They only make $18.00 an hour. Wal-Mart (no union employees) pays their people $10 an hour. Does any of my last week’s commentaries ring a bell here? Are the unions that dumb? The State of California is bankrupt and everyone is going to have to CUT BACK. Forget the RAISE and hope you don’t get a PAY CUT or become UNEMPLOYED!

Then the Transit workers have gone on strike forcing 500,000 people into a crisis of mobility. The MTA wants the ability to hire more part-time, lower wage people; however, the full time people don’t want that. So, they’ve decided to NOT WORK and go on strike. Not real smart in today’s economic climate: economic suicide in California’s environment.

I wonder who will police all of this as the sheriff’s deputy “sick-out” continues in an attempt to force higher wages. But, stay tuned to see who goes on strike later on in the week. Oh, and good luck Arnold!

BACK TO THE FUTURE- AGAIN!

A week or so ago, I did a three-part on the economy’s future in which one of my points was the serious unemployment environment. If you have a job, consider yourself blessed. If you don’t know of anyone that’s unemployed, you will. And since consumer spending is 70% of America’s GDP, Bush has a real serious problem on his hands in 2004.

While the economy is on the up-turn currently (thanks to 3Q tax cuts that have now run their course), mortgage refinancing is headed down. The BIG question is how will the 4Q, and more importantly Christmas, turn out?

What you’ve probably heard, or will hear, are the Democrats reminding us all that not since Herbert Hoover has a president run for office, for a second term, while losing jobs in his first term. We all know, or should, what happened to him in 1932.

These UN-employment statistics should speak loud and clear about 2004 (lest there be some kind of miracle- another war perhaps?). More than 5 mil people are working part time because they can’t find full time work. One million people just dropped off the unemployment rolls because you can’t stay on it past the end of your benefits (6 months). So, you may be out of work, but not considered unemployed.

For every person added to the labor force in September, sixteen people lost their jobs. Andy Grove (Intel bigwig) says that next year more than 10% of all of America’s high tech jobs will go overseas in search or lower labor costs. Andy’s not too keen on the Nasdaq either; and he’s no dummy!

And finally this. Only 66% of the U.S. population is working or looking for work: the lowest percentage since 1991. Let’s see, who was president then? Ahh, yes- back to the future it appears we go!

THE ISRAELI FUSE HAS BEEN LIT!

I don’t know if the fuse has been lit or not, and if it has, just how long that fuse is. What I do know is that there’s way too much smoke to have no fire.

For 55 years now Israel has been a pain in the side of world politics. For 55 years, Israel has been a democratic and successful state in the midst of of an undemocratic and poverty stricken area. For 55 years, Israel has been a religion in the middle of an ocean of Islamic people. So, what we have here then is a failure to communicate.

Unfortunately or not, the U.S. is right in the middle of the mess, and in fact America is looked upon as Israel’s alter ego. Hey, we’re guilty!

I am sure that not even the most liberal of Democratic candidates would allow the kind of terrorism that Israel has had to endure. When you’re on the political stump, it’s easy to talk peace but when your cafe’s and friends are being blown up, it’s an entirely different matter.

So, surprise, surprise. Israel finally is going after the dark shadows behind the bombings. Last week, Isreal took it’s jets into Syria and blew up a few training camps and of course the U.N. had an emergency session, jaw-boned a lot, and did nothing! In golf, it’s call PAR for the course!

Now we are hearing about Israel’s nuclear subs and the possibility that they will repeat history by going after a neighbor’s nuclear power plants. When the U.N. stood by and did nothing with Iraq, Israel went in and took out Saddam’s Osirak reactor in 1984. Now, there’s rumors that they may go after Iran’s nuclear build-up if the U.N. doesn’t do something by October 31.

I can assure you of one thing. Israel delivers on it’s promises. They back up their words and the words that I hear coming out of the Mideast are that Israel has had it with all the terrorism. Their fuse has been lit.

POLITICS AS USUAL!

Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware is upset that the Administration is sending out Cheney and a cadre of politicians to defend the Iraq effort. In other words, he’s upset about the PR that’s coming out of the White House.

Let me see now, presidential wannabe, Kerry appeared on a Sunday talk show to denounce the Iraq effort. Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) of West Virgina was on another talk show denouncing the Iraq effort. And then we have all of those other nine presidential candidates barn storming the U.S. attacking the president on anything and everything.

But, if the president defends himself, it’s PR and should be stopped? Okay I get it, it’s oaky for us to attack but you can’t respond. So, we’re starting off where we ended the week- politics as usual. Okay, we’ll move on to more significant matters later today then.

PRESIDENTIAL POWER(S)

Someone asked the question Friday afternoon on Fox News, “Why doesn’t Bush spend some of his campaign stash to help shore up his falling numbers.” It’s a simple answer as far as I am concerned. Let me explain.

A critical element to all campaigns is “Mo!”. I am talking about momentum. The LA Times tried to flip the momentum at the end of the California Recall but it back-fired. Bush doesn’t want to shore up his numbers now. He’s better off to let them drop until 2004 and then build on it. I mentioned this a few commentaries ago. Basically, he should let his numers slip until the January State Of The Union Speech, and then begin to build.

Most importantly is the fact that HE IS THE PRESIDENT! This means that he has lots of tools at his disposal to win votes. I think you saw that Friday morning when he went after the Florida vote. He basically came boldly to the support of democracy in Cuba. Duh! Isn’t he for democracy and freedom everywhere? Sure, but Florida will again be a critical state to carry in 2004, so lets roll out those favors now.

California, which the Republicans had written off three months ago, is now back in play. The George-Arnold connection will get a lot of play in the months ahead. California is going to get a lot of visits and Federal funds from Bush. Hey, it’s a long shot, but he just might carry the Golden State.

The point is this. Bush doesn’t need to spend any of his war-chest at this time. Let the Democrats beat up on each other and once the LONE candidate emerges, then you have all that money when it’s needed- the Spring of 2004.

In the meantime, rev up that plane and head to the states that will make a difference in 2004. That means there will be few visits to Montana, Idaho, or Wymoing as example.

CALEEEFORNEEEA DREAMIN!

Okay, okay already. I’ve gotten several e-mails on what’s up with Arnold? I’ve told people that if I were there, I would have voted for him! I mean what’s the choices? A promise by Cruz to raise taxes another $8 billion, wasting a vote on a narrow-minded good-guy like Tom who couldn’t get elected, or staying the course with Gray? No brainer man! It’s Arrr-nold. Terminate em!

In addition, he’ll probably make a good governor. He’s a DOER. Forget who he groped 30 years ago (you want us to go back to your life when you were a wild teen, or a young twenty year old?). What’s he like now? And there isn’t anyone who has a case against him since the statute of limitations would have run out on all those. And, did I mention this is Caleeeforneea, not Montana?

Listen, we need to pray that Arnold can turn that nation-state around because if he doesn’t, it could impact us all. Standard and Poors has lowered their debt rating to JUNK! California (Gray’s state) went from a $9 billion dollar surplus to a $38 billion dollar deficit in three years.

Let me put it in proper perspective. France has a $30B deficit, Germany a $25B deficit, and Italy a $13B deficit. California has the 5th largest GDP in the world! It has a debt larger than all of the other 49 states put together. If California goes down, so does our whole national economy.

Besides, Arnold has a secret weapon- MARIA! Arnold also has some new ideas that are neither Republican nor Democratic. And, I bet he can twist Bush’s arm to get some benefits ahead of the election next year. Ahh, dream on Bush. California now looks possible for you in 2004. And Arnold, keep dreaming because where Caleeeforneeea is now, is one heck-of-a nightmare!

VERY SERIOUS………Part 3

This is the third and last commentary about America’s future financial prospects. I mean what am I doing talking about our future when there’s the Arr-nold magic going on out on the West coast? Besides, all of this stuff is negative- though real!

About the only thing that America leads in today is the printing of money. Our currency is the stable of the planet; however, once that goes away, what are we left with? Consider the following facts.

America is no longer the leader in manufacturing, engineering, computer programming, aerospace, telecommunications and medical technology. We used to be. The space station wouldn’t be viable if it were not for Russia. Japan is leading in high speed internet access. China is going full bore into a space program as well.

Did I mention China is about to export an $8,000 car to the U.S. that should speed up the demise of GM and Ford? Well, they are!

It’s more than just a population matter as Asia is graduating more people with BA degrees and degrees in natural sciences than we are- by a long shot! All of this is because as I’ve said over these three days, American business and manufacturing can’t compete with economies that can produce at 1/4th to 1/10th the coat here in the US.

Is it any wonder then that three million people have lost their jobs under Bush? And the “games” that our politicians are playing with the unemployment numbers is stupid. The government says unemployment is at 3,741,000 and that’s because when a person’s benefits run out (6 mos), they’re taken off the unemployed rolls (like 1 million were last month).

We have somewhere close to 8 million unemployed and it’s getting worse each year, and there’s nothing we do about it, short of severe pain! So, with that and the pevious two days, I leave to you to pnder, or just pour a glass of wine and live in denial. Too bad our kids can’t for it’s to them that the heavy burden really falls.

VERY SERIOUS ……..PART 2

I believe it was Stalin who said, “Any death is a tragedy, but 10,000 deaths is just a statistic.” So, this is my shot across the financial decks, that you’re likely to get lost in the huge numbers and view them only as statistics, rather than major danger signs.

Yesterday, I made the point that America no longer manufactures or produces; just consumes! Today, I’ll show how MUCH consumption we’ve done: how much DEBT we’ve built up. America and it’s citizens are being crushed by debt. The total U.S. debt is something close to $34 TRILLION, with the commonly mentioned Federal debt coming in 5th at $6.8T.

At the top of the list is Financial debt at $10.4T followed by Social Security liabilities at $10.1T, Household debt at $8.4T, and Unfunded Medicare debt at $7.0T! I won’t mention the other three.

In the last twelve months the Federal debt has gone from $6.2T to $6.8T or $11.6 BILLION a DAY. So, how can we do this you ask? Simple. Alan Greenspan just keeps printing more money: $20 billion last week. So, you see, he’s printing twice as much money as we’re going into debt. Keep borrowing you fools!

But, here’s the problem. At some point, and probably soon, China, Japan, and the rest of the world will quit buying U.S. $’s (in the form of Treasuries). Foreigners hold about $1T of U.S. currencies (Japan $443B, China $126B). And they are seeing the value of that dropping.

Germany has been wiped out twice by inflation and that’s not a historical fact that’s lost on the rest of the world. We’re quickly reaching the place were “they” will no longer suport “us” and our lifestyle habits. They’ll SELL those dollars (which is already plunging), buy GOLD, and the U.S. party will be over. More tomorrow, if you can handle it.

VERY, VERY SERIOUS STUFF!

Fasten your seat belts as this just might be one of the more prophetic and pathetic looks at America’s future that I’ve written: and I’m an optimist, or should I say pragmatic idealist!

No Republican or Democratic candidate can stem the tide of what businesses and executives are doing to our future economy. Let me illustrate my point with just one American corporation: Delphi, which was spun off by GM in 1999. Delphi is the largest automotove parts manufacturer in the world.

Since 1999, Delphi has has eliminated 30% of it’s U.S. workforce, or about 14,000 people. The 30,000 that’s left are primarily high paid UAW employess (with benefits) who will soon loose their jobs as well. Delphi also has 72,000 employees in Mexico and they will soon lose their jobs! Why? Let me explain.

Americans earn an average of $20.32 an hour, with benefits. Mexicans earn $3 an hour, without benefits! So, Delphi went South. However, Delphi is now looking to the Far East and India where the average worker is paid 24 CENTS an hour! This is a no-brainer.

This is not just a “special case”. The 800 pound gorilla, Wal-Mart, gets 85% of the items it sells from overseas, mainly China, where the hourly income is 30 cents an hour. I also reported two months ago that when visiting a NIKE store in Orlando that everything I touched came from outside our borders. Most of the items were made in Indonesia (37 cents an hour wage) or Thailand (an expensive 50 cents an hour).

We politely and politically call this “outsourcing”. I call it serious stuff and I’ll follow up more on this issue Wednesday. America is no longer competitive in the manufacturing sector. We’ve priced ourselves out of business!

HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS?

Well, will you look at what happened Wednesday-Friday of last week. I mean let’s look at something positive instead of the California mud-slinging and other nasty political goings-on.

The market took off like a rocket last week: starting Wednesday, which just so happened to be the kick-off of the 4Q. The unemployment numbers on Friday were great. But what’s interesting is that when the numbers are bad (as they have been for the first eight months of the year), all of the commentators say it means nothing since unemployment is a lagging figure.

Okay, I can agree with that. So tell me, since the numbers were good (and only for one out of nine months) why should the market shoot up since it’s just a lagging indicator? Oh, I see, it’s the pollyanna approach. Everything is good at all times- as long as you’re a broker selling stocks.

Wait, wait, didn’t I just say I wanted to talk about something positive? And didn’t I just say the move of the market over the last three days wasn’t really good? Oh well, I guess everything is tainted with negativity. And just in case there wasn’t enough going on, The U.N. held an emergency session Sunday afternoon to talk about Israel’s attack into Syria.

So, stay tuned for the latest count of military casualties in Iraq and the latest number of women groped by Arnold. What a world! Could it get any better than this, or what?

Right!

TIME OUT!

Sometimes one just needs a break. Shut the TV off, put the brain on idle, tune out the background chatter, and take a break.

It seems to me that this weekend is a perfect time to do it. There is absolutely nothing but negativity in the news. Even the tigers in Las Vegas are out of sorts.

So, while the humidity is low, the temperatures perfect, the skies mostly clear, and the world not a safe place to venture out into, chill! It’ll all be there waiting for us on Monday morning.

WHAT A DAY THURSDAY WAS!

Arnold has been groping women, Rush has been abusing non-prescription drug, we’re losing 3-6 men a day in Iraq, and the Pope is near death. Hey, I know I’ve been discussing the anti binge that America is on, but enough already!

Oh yes, there was some good news. The House passed the partial birth abortion bill and it’s on its way to the Senate! Yeah!

As it’s been said by journalists, no one is interested in a house that’s not burning down. So, if there are no fires, start some. Then you have the public that loves to watch a fire in lieu of watching paint dry. Finally we have people that just can’t help but do dumb things that attract attention; even if it was in 1978. Dang, I’d hate to be held accountable for what I was doing in 1978.

So, we’re in for a long weekend of dumbing-down politics and witch-hunting hyperbole. Add to the mess above, the Kobe Bryant trial, the Lacy Peterson latest update, and of course the infamous CIA LEAK!

I’ll tell you what’s leaking, it’s the American character and integrity. Can you imagine what the rest of the world is thinking about this democracy we call America? I believe they’ll come to the conclusion that maybe we have just a tad bit too much freedom. Maybe a little benevolent dictatorship would be better. There are lots of dictators out there, it’s that benevolent part that’s going to be hard to find.

Okay, Friday, here we come. Lay it on us!

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