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BACK TO WORK IN 2004

December 31, 2004

Many people are still on vacation(s). While we enjoy the good life here in America, the reports from Iran say that more than 30,000 have been found dead in the earthquake and many more thousands are yet to be found.

We survived the New Year without any terrorist attacks while some 110,000 of our citizens-soldiers prepare to replace a like number in Iraq. It’s a difficult time for a hundred plus military families as they start to say their ‘good-byes’ to dads, moms, and loved ones. It’s a given that some will not come back (alive).

So, while it’s back to work as normal for many, around the world, and here at home, 2004 is quite a different year for many. For some it’s not just ‘back-to-work’, but on to trying to survive the new year.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

December 30, 2004

I went to bed a half hour into the New Year and proceeded to sleep for the next nine hours of 2004. The point is that terrorists didn’t attack at midnight, nor throughout the New Year: so far!

Two flights from international cities were either denied landing rights, or were searched upon landing. It seems our policing of flights is getting to priority attention.

Now that Times Square has passed the test, it’s on to the bowl games and the big one right here in Houston in 31 days: the SUPER BOWL! But, the New Year is just ten hours old as I write this, so let’s forget about what lies ahead and for THIS DAY, let’s enjoy the NEW YEAR!

SAYING GOOD-BYE TO 2003

December 29, 2004

It was a fast-paced year for me. Where did it go? What did it mean? What was accomplised that might matter a couple of years down the road: maybe three months later?

Minds and hearts. There are some people who have entered my soul and carved out a place of permanentcy. Modern day scientific techniques can’t erase the neurons (as they do in Ben’s newest movie, Paycheck). And, they’re all good.

And right there at the top will be the renewed honor for those who serve in the military. From the dropping of the first bombs on Baghdad to the latest service man or woman to come home in a body bag, I salute the brave men and women and their families who serve and die for principles we hold dear.

Unfortunately fewer people hold those principles as close or as tightly as I do, and therein lies the seeds for destruction of freedoms we now take for granted.

So, as I say goodbye to 2003 today and tonight with some close friends, I’ll remember this year not so much about how much money I made or lost, how many ‘things’ were accomplished or not, or how much progress I made on my career-path; but, how my soul has been refreshed. I am more alive because of the people in my life.

TWO DAYS TO GO IN 2003!

December 28, 2004

The power brokers are driving the stock market to insane heights in the closing days so that they can point to the great year. Then come Friday, Jan. 2nd 2004, it can all come crashing back. All three major indexes are now at their high of the year (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500).

And yet, gold rose to a new high and the dollar sunk to a new low (down 27% in the last two years). How can the market keep rising when the Dollar is falling and gold is rising? Only by manipulation!

Well, this is day two of my look at the year 2004. In addition to yesterday’s comments, I see 2004 filled with currency wars! China will be the 800 pound gorilla and the US$ just can’t compete down the road. Every nation is trying to carve out a market share by printing more money and keeping their currency competitive. Listen, not everyone can win. Someone has to lose.

The next thing that I see in 2004 are tariff wars. We got a whiff of this last month when Bush gave in to the steel tariffs, but that was only because he needed to get re-elected. Once re-elected, he’ll take the gloves off and tariff wars are only long-self destructive, though short-term beneficial.

And finally, we’re going to see rising interest rates and rising inflation as a means to handle the incredible debt that this nation is building up. Of course both interest rates and inflation will build quarter by quarter. You can’t scare the voters in an election year.

As I look at the economic fundamentals, I have to wonder how Bush can get re-elected, but then I remember that he is the president, and the power of presidential incumbency is almost as powerful as the trinity!

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT 2004

December 27, 2004

Unless something major happens over the next three days, I plan on doing a three-parter on some of what I see happening in 2004. Some things seem very clear while others could go exactly 180 degrees from what seems apparent.

A no-brainer is the fact that politics will dominate the entire year. Democrats are furious, hate Bush, and feel that he stole the elction in 2000. It’s one of the most fanatic and unreasonable positions that I’ve ever seen. If Dean is the Democratic nominee (and I’m not all that convinced that he wil be), talk about two wild, wild West gunslingers going at each other. It can happen, but I can’t see Bush losing the election. The power of the presidency is awesome.

Of course everyone is interested is what the stock market will do. I have this one nailed. It will either go UP or DOWN! Hey, maybe UP and DOWN. What’s obvious is that whatever Bush and Greenspan can do to keep people spending between now and November, will be done. How long can interest rates stay at 50 year lows? And now that the tax cuts have come and gone, can there be any more?

The key factor is the US$. It’s been falling like a rock and there seems to be no let-up. If it falls slowly there won’t be too much damage, but if it keeps falling at the rate it has been, then watch out below!

One thing I am sure of and that is that GOLD is on the move (UP) and not even the power-brokers or bankers can stop it! The rise of gold is a sure indication that there’s many problems in Tinsle-Town.

More tomorow!

APOCALYPSE- IRANIAN STYLE

December 25, 2004

Not that many people can give you a definition of the word, apocalypse; however, most can tell you that it doesn’t sound good. Even Websters Dictionary has a wide-ranging definition from a prophetic revelation to imminent cosmic cataclysm. But then what does cataclysm mean?

Well, let’s get down to the point in today’s brief commentary. There are lots of terrible and horrible events that happen in life. Most recently we can speak of the 2,900 that lost their lives in the Twin Towers attack. You can point to the innocent civilian lives from the Iraq war that we write off as collateral damage.

Closer to home we read in the newspaper and watch on television how another one, three, or five GI’s have been killed in Iraq. We even get to read in our local newspapers about a hometown man or woman that comes home in a body bag and we wince.

In Iran, there’s a totally different matter of even greater proportions. But back to the comment that one death is a tragedy, but 10,000 deaths is just a statistic. If you’ve heard the news recently you know that somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 people were killed in the latest earthquake in Iran. I doubt we’ll know the exact total for weeks.

What we do know is that for the last quarter century, Iran has been a killing field of unimaginable proportions. Twenty five years ago (Sept. 16, 1978), 25,000 people were killed in Northeast Iran. More than 50,000 were killed on June 21, 1990, another 1,500 on May 10, 1997, and 10-20,000 now?

We’re looking at four earthquakes taking the lives of more than 100,000 people in 25 years. It may not be an apocalypse, but if it’s not, what word would you use to describe it?

CREDIT WHERE CREDIT DUE

December 24, 2004

Howard Dean claims that the U.S. is no safer since the Twin Towers were downed. He even said that that U.S. was no safer after Saddam was captured.

So, I have to ask myself, why hasn’t there been another attack on the U.S. in over two years. Is it just luck? Has al-Qaida given up? I also have to ask myself, didn’t we just foil an attack on the West Coast?

It seems to me that you’ve got to give credit where credit is due. The FBI, CIA, and the Bush Administration were all painted as Donkeys and every Democrat held a half dozen pins. But, if there are no attacks over the next ten months, I think that Donkey’s tail will be self inflicted.

Granted, we’ve got a monumental job ahead of us onthis war on terrorism. It has so many ways of expressing itself. But we are awake as Americans now to this new war. Yes, we’ll take some hits: it’s inevitable; however, even the most left-wing Democrat would do well to acknowledge that reality.

PS. And I’m so happy that Dean will talk about his belief in Christ in the South but not in the Northeast. What an interesting belief system.

MERRY CHRIST…MAS!

December 23, 2004

The battle rages throughout these STATES that are becoming less UNITED; however, the courts notwithstanding, the judicial system will never be able to take CHRIST out of CHRISTmas!

So while we get wrapped up in what to say that’s politically correct: Happy Holidays or Merry Festivities, let me simply wish everyone a very MERRY CHRISTMAS!

EXTREME PREJUDICE

December 22, 2004

I was reading an article by Harry Schultz on International relations when he said something that triggered this thought and put a smile on my face. He was talking about the the economic excesses that have wrought such problems, but in them come radical reversals that produce just the opposite of what was intended.

I believe we are seeing such ludicrous, stupid, idiotic, and extreme prejudice against religion(s) in general, and Christianity in particular, that we’re on the verge of seeing secularism take one on the chin. I believe it was Fox News that reported you could use the “F” word on Public TV but you can’t use the “G” word (God) in school. You can sell condoms in high school locker rooms but a first grader in Virginia can’t use a pencil that says “I love Jesus” on it (an actual case).

Everywhere you turn, the ACLU or some group feels they have been prejudiced against by religious intrusion: Christmas trees, Carols, Nativity scenes, and other such repulsive religious symbols. Poor babies!

I think we’re about to see the same thing that we saw in S. Africa two decades ago. Blacks were a majority in S. Africa but they had no rights. Christians are by far the majority in America and yet it’s as though we have no rights.

Such extreme prejudice is about to back-fire. You can only push the MAJORITY so far before they exercise their will as John Locke brought to our attention centuries ago.

A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE

December 21, 2004

You’ve heard the expression that “One can’t see the forest because of the trees”. Or have you? So what’s a practical application? Well, let’s look at the economy, debt, and gold.

My premise for the past two years has been this: debt is rising, inflation is coming, gold is streaking up, and eventually this will kill the economy, stock market, and our lifestyle. Oh hey, that’s sure good news isn’t it. Way to go Grinch!

With the Santa Claus rally, the capture of Saddam, and all the recent spate of good economic news, who’s listening? What forest? Well, try this perspective on for a moment.

The U.S Public debt is $6.9T. One year ago it was $6.3T. So, we’ve added a little over $600B to our national debt or something like $1.6B a day- A DAY! If we can do this for just two more years (and it will probably be even higher), we will have added $1.8T to our national debt over three years.

And the point is?

$1.8T is the total value of all the GOLD that has ever been mined throughout history (including the value of all the gold mines that now exist on this planet). In order to keep everyone happy and allow politicians to get re-elected, we just keep printing money. But, alas foreigners are seeing the forest!

Foreigners are starting to slow the buying of US. Dollars and investments. They are starting to trade in the fiat paper that we print for real value- gold! The U.S. needs to attract $50B a month from overseas to keep our house afloat. In the first 8 months, the goal was achieved ($65B average). In the last sixty days, foreigners have only bought an average of $28B a month in US securities.

Trouble! A forest mentality is beginning to develop. A new and bad perspective for the US. And the US Dollar’s fall is additional evidence.

AN ‘ORANGE’ CHRISTMAS?

December 20, 2004

I’ve sung both songs about either a WHITE or a BLUE Christmas; however, an ORANGE Christmas? You gotta be kidding!

Well, these are not normal times are they? And did you know the Grinch who is trying to steal Chrismas is a Muslim? Well, we don’t know that for sure, but I’ll give 100-1 odds that it’s true. Just when everyone was having fun, thinking about going to Times Square and other very public crowded events, we get this elevation of the national alert- to ORANGE!

So what about that last minute shopping? More importantly for us Houstonians, who are lucky enough to get Super Bowl tickets, will the alert be down-graded by Feb. 1st? Ahh, that’s too far down the road. We have christmas and New Year’s festivities to get through first.

Oh yes, and then there’s that Dow 10,000. Is this news going to cast a negative pall over investors? Please tell me the Dow will keep marching onward and upward. Well, I guess we’ll know more around 3pm CST Monday, won’t we?

Christmas is known more for the colors red and green; however, I guess ORANGE (High Risk) is better than RED (Severe Risk). I’m casting my lot with Bush and praying he’s right, and not Howard Dean (Who says we’re no safer of course).

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST!

December 18, 2004

I’m sure that you’ve heard the song (above). And every Democrat that’s running for President hates even the thought of it. The capture of Sadddam Hussein drew incredible criticism: from it’s not true- to Bush had captured him long before and waited until it was expedient politically to announce it.

I imagine that the worst thing that could happen to the Democratic party (other than Howard Dean winning the nomination), would be for Bush to capture or kill UBL. Can you imagine what such an event would do for Bush’s approval rating? Look at the bump he got with Saddam.

It’s enough to have to deal with- having Saddam captured; however, now we have this Libyan thing! Moammar Gadhafi is turning into a good guy. Bush and Blair have convinced him to allowing weapons inspectors in. He’s turning over all his enriched uranium and cowing to the bully Bush!

For nine months Bush and Blair have been secretly negotiating with him and they have finally cut a deal. I mean how is a Democrat to get elected President if all these evil Arab leaders keep giving in to Bush?

Another one bites the dust and with him, probably another nine Democratic candidates as well.

THE NEW (2003) PAPER CHASE

December 17, 2004

Most are probably too young to remember the movie that was a hit in 1973 starring Timothy Bottoms and Lindsay Wagner. I’ll remind you that John Houseman won an Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor in the movie, The Papr Chase.

Well, it’s thirty years later and while some things have changed, some things remain the same. As an example, the “paper chase” today is focused on the U.S. Dollar. Ever since Nixon said that gold would not be a backing, or could not be exchanged for U.S. Dollars (1971), the world has been CHASING it, making the US$ the reserve currency of the world.

Lest you forget, it was France that wanted to trade their US$’s for gold. When we said NO, France and Europe started to think about creating a competitive currency. It took awhile, but alas, on the scene came the Euro. It immediately tanked as no one believed in it.

Now, the Euro has not only regained it’s losses, but it is trouncing the US$ recently. The “paper chase” has moved from the US$ to the Euro. Why not. America has been financing it’s excessive greed (1/2T annually) by just printing more US$s. And until recently the world has gone along with it.

Can anyone explain to me why and how it is that our government can value it’s 8,135 tonnes of gold at $42.22 an ounce which is 97% below it’s ACTUAL price? And while our governement “says” gold is only worth $42.22 an ounce, go try and buy an American Eagle, US minted, one-ounce gold coin for $42.22! Duh!

The US fiat Dollar is tanking daily, our government has it’s head where it shouldn’t, living in denial, and gold is shooting through the roof: now at $411 an ounce.

And by the way, I think when gold is $1,000+ and the US$ has totally collapsed, Alan Greenspan should get the Best Supporting Actor award for the 2003 version of the “Paper Chase”.

LONG LIVE SECULARISM!

December 16, 2004

I wrote a commentary on Dec. 11th about the movie, The Last Samauri, and how it brought out the differences in secularism and traditional values. Well, consider this as part two. But first let me give a definition.

Secularism is basically the rejection or the exclusion of religious values or religious considerations, especially when it comes to civil affairs or public education. It’s an extension of humanism: man’s the authority and knows all.

I was shocked to see the headline Wednesday that the French, led by Jacques Chirac, are asking Parliament to ban Islamic head scarves in schools and also in business operations. I was taken aback because the French are so supportive of Islamic principles; however, they are more supportive of their own religion: secularism.

Of course Chirac isn’t just going after Islam. He’s abolishing any outward show of any religion or traditional values. You cannot wear a Christian cross or a Jewish skullcap. This should help people explain why the French were so opposed to the war in Iraq.

You see, Saddam was not evil. He was just pragmatic and cunning: excellent secular traits. To go to war claiming that Saddam was evil would be bringing religion and values into the matter. God forbid!

As I said last week, Canada is head-over-heels a secular society. I pray (yes, PRAY) that America can hold on to at least a few of our values before we all get lost in self deceit and pomp!

Oh yes, and did I mention that Chirac rejects religious holidays like Yom Kippur and other Islamic holidays as public school holidays.

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