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NEGATIVE DOES AS NEGATIVE IS!

For months we’ve heard the cry from about every corner of the world, and especially from the ranks of Democrats in America, “WHERE IS UBL & SADDAM”? Well, we catch one of the big two and does Bush get an “Atta-boy” from the crowd? Well, not everyone is against Bush, but I couldn’t help but note four voices.

First we have the Vatican. Cardinal Martino is all upset that somehow we made Saddam look like a “cow”, checking his mouth and hair. A cow? I’ve got a couple of other animals in mind, but I digress. Come on, get real Vatican!

Of course, Saddam’s daughters were claiming that something was ‘off’ because their ‘old man’ would fight like a lion. Surely he was sedated, gassed, or drugged because he wouldn’t just give up. After all, he said so!

Back here at home, Washington, D-Rep., Jim McDermott was on the radio contending that Bush had Saddam caught this past weekend specifically to increase his ratings. In other words he was saying that we knew where he was all along, and Bush was just holding back our troops until the right time. Can you believe such nonsense? And he got elected by the people of Washington? Hmmm.

And of coruse there’s the Demo Nine. Leading the pack is none other than standard-bearer, Howard Dean. He made a major address and in it he reminded us all of why he should not be elected President. The capture didn’t change his mind about the war and America was no safer as a result of Saddam’s arrest. Say what? It matters not if Saddam is on the loose or captured? What’s he smoking?

Nonetheless, early opinion polls show that mainstream American(s) think it was a good deal, as Bush got a nice bump in his favorable poll numbers. I guess there are some that you can never please, and the four above are surely in that camp.

THE PUNY & PATHETIC U.N.

It seems to get worse every day. The current United Nations is trying to be an even bigger weasel than the old League Of Nations. They want to run and rule the world but they have no backbone, no teeth, no courage, and no guts! The U.N. is fast becoming the secular symbol for the world.

They don’t know how to enforce any resolutions so they just keep passing new ones (ala Iraq). When they do decide to put up a fight, it’s only because the US is leading the way. The U.N. is illi-equipped to handle any radical group, like al-Qaeda which does not respond to reason. The current U.N. is potentially capable of doing some things during peace times; however, when confronted with force, they haven’t got a clue.

The U.N. pulled most of it’s people out of Iraq (too dangerous). The U.N. announced over the weekend that they might pull their people out of Afghanistan due to the dangerous situation now developing.

Today, Kofi Annan said that the U.N didn’t want to be a part of trying Saddam Hussein because they of course do not believe in the death penalty. And as long as the U.N. doesn’t believe in the death penalty for a dictator, that believes in the death penalty for 100,000 people, the U.N. will be nothing but a debate society where men and women with grandiose egos can make themselves feel good. Oh yes, and eat good food and stay in nice hotels.

Can you sense I’m not a supporter of the way the U.N. exists today?

ON TO THE NEXT PROBLEM!

Running for the job of being the Democratic presidential candidate to face Bush next year has to be one of the most frustrating problems in the world. Every time they think they have him on an issue, it evaporates.

For months the nasty nine hammered away at the economy. In the last three months the economy has been running hotter than it’s been seen in twenty years. Every time you turn around there’s a good economic number coming out.

So, the war was to become the issue de jour! But now that Saddam has been captured, it’s back to the drawing board. Hey, UBL is still out there. Let’s go back to that issue: for as long as that’s possible.

However, I think the next issue that will come up ad nauseum, is what to do with Saddam. The Saddam issue is going to go from “where is he” to “how will he be tried?”

Will it be an international tribunal? Will the Iraqi provisional government do it? How much say will the US of A have? I’d like to think otherwise, but Saddam is apt to get more attention now than he did the last few months through his periodic radio releases. Will there be one trial, two? And must this drag out until 2005 like the Milosovec trail? Surely we’ll not turn him over to the U.N.

The last thing the world needs now is for Saddam to use his trial, and the time leading up to it as a way to “speak to the world” and inflame the radical Muslim world. So, just when you think all is well, there’s always another problem just around the corner. Knowing that, maybe we can be pro-active and limit it!

ANOTHER ‘WHERE WERE YOU’?

I was coming out of a debate meeting in Oklahoma when Kennedy was assassinated. And, I was asleep at 5:11 am when my son called me to tell me that Saddam Hussein had been captured.

He not only called me, he drove home to jump up and down and celebrate. He jumped on our bed and anyone with no discernment could tell this event was having a major emotional impact on his life. He had called as many of his buddies who had been in Iraq with him earlier this year as he could. He was crying, he was so excited.

I can only imagine the joy that millions of Iraqis must have. I witnessed to a degreee what a soldier who sacrificied his time and risked his life felt like. And to those who have lost loved ones in Iraq and to those who now sit beside their loved ones in hospitals or at rehab units, the feeling must be beyond description. They really PAID the price, spilled their blood, lost limbs, and forever altered their lives in so many ‘hardship’ ways. I salute them!

Where was I? I was so glad that I had the opportunity to share the joy with my son who had served, came back alive, and understands the concept of freedom unlike most of us do. And to the 4th Infantry Division that made the capture, and who have lost so many soldiers in the pursuit, I salute you as well. To all of our military and the commander in chief, George Bush, job well done!

PS. Hey, UBL, you’re next!

JOY TO THE ? (WALL STREET)

Yeah! We have Dow 10,000! All is well with the world. CNBC is happy again and Fox News got to use their 10,000 logo. On to 11,000! Dust off all those old Dent prophecies of Dow 39,000, and of course the remarkable book: Dow 100,000!

Well, I don’t mean to be a party-pooper, but could we maybe consider a couple of things before buying some stocks on that credit card?

The main engine that’s been feuling the economy since the NASDQ fell off the cliff two years ago, has been real estate: mortgages, and mainly mortgage refinancing! Millions of people took out new loans at lower interest rates (some 125% loans), and due to inflation were able to increase their mortgage loan amount while lowering their payment, and taking out some ’spending money’.

Well, the party is over! The Mortgage Bankers Assoc. says that in the last two weeks, mortgage applications have fallen like a rock: down 15%. Rightly so, it has been said that the consumer has been keeping the economy alive (70% of GDP), but where’s this tapped-out consumer been getting his/her money? Yep, from refinancing their mortgages.

So, if I’m reading the tea-leaves right, someone just took the booze away from all the party animals. Then there’s the other things that old guru Martin Weiss has been talking about: a $1T budget deficit for 2004, a doubling or tripling of inflation, a falling dollar, $40 crude oil, $550 gold, and massive interest rate increases.

Well, maybe he’s a little delirious. But could the BULLS also be a tad bit too excited about this ‘magical 10,000′? Might we wait and see if it can stay there for a day or two before borrowing some money from aunt Molly to buy stocks? I know it’s time to be JOYOUS, but maybe a little restraint when it comes to the market might help. Maybe!

NOT THE LAST SAMURAI!

If you’ve not seen the movie (The Last Samurai) then you need to, unless you don’t like violence. No profanity or sex, just your basic “Braveheart” kind of slaughter of hundreds, maybe thousands, of people. A field strewn with bodies of which you get to see almost each one killed, ‘up close and personal”.

Somehow it all seems so horrid when you see a person slashed with a sword, but when a bomb takes out a few dozen bad guys, or when two planes take out 3,000 people, there’s this difference. Our psyche isn’t sure how to process it all but somehow, it’s different.

In the Last Samurai, we’re confronted with all of what’s wrong with society and particularly the church which seeks to “save it’s life” rather than to give it’s life in service to others.

Lt. Col Allen B. West is not the last Samurai; however, he lives some of the principles. Finally, the Army decided to not put him through a criminal court-martial. Instead, he will get “administrative punishment. You see, he fired a gun over the head of one of the “bad guys” in order to gain information which ultimately saved the lives of his soldiers. And that’s a bad thing?

War is hell!

There is nothing pretty, sane, or comfortable about war. And when we begin to ’split-hairs’, appease the pacifists, and basically deny the reality of what’s all about, we’re not the last Samurai. We are about to come to the end of our rule and reign as a nation! Thankfully, the Lt. Col. West decision says we’re not quite there yet.

HATFIELD & McCOYS: 2004 STYLE

I may be wrong but it seems like the feud that began back in the late 90’s is heating up again. And it has all the feel of the old Hatfield & McCoy fights.

It’s been no secret that Al Gore felt like he lost the 2000 election, in part, because of Clinton’s sex scandal and Bill’s difficulty with the definition of “is”. Gore couldn’t figure out if he should use Clinton to campaign for him or not and basically he low-keyed any Clinton campaigning.

Bill (through Hill) has kept control of the Democratic political machinery. His pal and partner in crime, Terry McAuliffe, managed to hold on to the DNC even while guiding the Democratic party to a national beating in 2002.

Another person who dislikes the Clintons greatly is Howard Dean and he’s vowed to kick all the Clintonistas out of the DNC if he gets the nomination. In return for that threat, the Clinton’s persuaded Wesley Clark to run for President: hoping to stop Dean.

On Tuesday, Gore not only backs Dean but does so from Bill’s home base: Harlem! Now Clark is saying that he’s open to having Hillary run as his VP. And Hillary isn’t saying she won’t: or at least she refused to say that flat out on Sunday.

So, it’s the Gore’s battling it out with the Clintons. And as of today, Dean-Gore is ahead (big time) of Clark-Clinton. What fun!

TWO MAJOR MILE STONES

Other than having our T-1 line cut TWICE in a twenty-four hour period, there were two other major events in the last twenty-four hours. Know what they are? Well, there were probably more than two, but let me give you mine.

Big time political news! Al Gore is backing the lead man, Howard Dean. This almost has to be a dagger in the juglar of the other eight candidates of which at least five had no chance anyway. So, Barbara Streisand’s horse (Gephardt), Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, and John Edwards now face almost impossible odds. I know, many people thought Gen. Clark was going to be the man, but no way.

So, is this the Democratic sacrificial lamb to be led to the slaughter, making the way for Hillary in 2008? Is this the stalking horse that’s to weed out the rest and present a weak candidate so that by the convention this summer, Hillary can come to the rescue?

Whatever is going on, it’s obvious that the Democratic party is veering WAY LEFT and they simply can’t beat Bush doing that. Oh, well.

The second event was the Dow making yet another stab at 10,000. CNBC and even Fox have that grand 10,000 logo ready to be dusted off and flashed frequently when (if) the event happens. The Dow is only 35 points away from that magical figure. My take is that if it does make it
(Intra-day or at the close), it has no place to go but down. The hype is on though.

DEAN & DOW 10,000!

THE GORILLA HEADS SOUTH

You’ve heard about that 800 pound gorilla that terrorizes the neighborhood and does just about anything it wants to do haven’t you? Well, we can put a name and face on that giant- call him WAL-MART!

Wal-Mart is single-handedly doing what the Internet took ten eyars to do- ramp up DEFLATION! Along with their side-kick, China, Wal-Mart is cutting prices, ramping up volume, keeping unions at bay, and otherwise producing on such massive scales that no one can be price-competitive with them. Many businesses here in America have found that out in the last decade.

Now, it’s Mexico’s turn. Just last week with the opening of the 633rd store in Mexico, Wal-Mart became the largest private employer in the nation of Mexico. More than 100,000 Mexicans now work for the Walton clan. And take a look at these numbers.

In Mexico, Wal-Mart does about $11B in sales, is the largest grocer in Mexico, represents 2% of Mexico’s GDP, and controls more than 6% of ALL retail sales in the nation. And, they’re just getting started.

Here in America the average unionized supermarket worker makes almost $20 an hour, while Wal-Mart employees average around $9: many who are unhappy about the difference. But, in Mexico, Wal-Mart employees are some of the highest paid in the nation, while only averaging $1.50 and hour.

So, the 800 hundred pound gorilla is doing just about whatever it wants not only in America, but in Mexico as well. Watch out the rest of the world!

T- 1 LINE CUT

Our computers have been down for the last twelve hours but we are back up and will be posting around 11 am.

HOW ABOUT A ‘TIME-OUT’?

Ahhh, all this ’stuff’ that one has to think and worry about is about to get the best of us. Should we pull out of Iraq, scale back, call on the UN, or send in more troops. Who knows?

Is the economy on a new BULL run or is this just a BEAR rally determined to suck more blood out of the numb investor? Is the Dollar going to crash and be replaced by the Euro?

Then there’s all the political stuff that’s only going to get more complicated. Nine Democratic wannabes and a Bush Pinata. My how the rhetoric is getting more hateful. Who really has our life and care in mind or is it just a power thing?

And then if that’s not enough, what’s up with Bush allocating $3.7B for nanotechnology? What’s that going to do for us? And then we also hear that on Dec. 17th that Bush is going to announce that we’re going back to the moon. I thought we were all tapped-out with a deficit almost as far out there as the moon. How can we afford this stuff?

You know, it just seems that sometimes you just need to lay it all down. Forgetdaboutit and chill! So, I’m more than glad to know that the holidays are approaching. Just a little added stress doing that last-minute shopping and then let’s take a break from it all. Shut all the thinking down for a couple of weeks. All that stuff will still be with us come January 5th. Won’t it?

WISDOM- AND THEN SOME!

Better than just my lead line above, I am going to use my commentary entirely to quote one of the most renowned men in the financial community for 50+ years: Richard Russell

“The US Constitution specifically states that only gold and silver are money and it warns against paper currency. In 1971 (Bretton Woods Agreement) the dollar became the world’s reserve currency: by central banks the world over. There is no definition of the dollar since it changes every minute, 24 hours a day.

The fiat dollar is not a store of value! Yet 5,000 years of history tells us that gold is. If Americans believed as our Forefathers did, that gold and silver were wealth, and paper money was fraud, then politicians wouldn’t be able to run up such outlandish debts.

The U.S. dollar is under attack today from inflation and foreign creditors who are fleeing the dollar and running mainly to the Euro. Australia now has 50% of their reserves in Euros.

It was knowledge of the “outside world” that brought down Communism in Russia (via the Internet). And, it will be the same process through which gold will hasten the process of superseding paper currencies. The world is digesting what the “unexpected” feat of $400 gold means.

If you understand any of the above, you know how serious it is, and what you should be doing.

INTEREST RATES TO RISE

As I’ve been been saying, and as the Federal Reserve Governors have been denying, interest rates have to rise : sooner than later. Lock in any rates you can as soon as possible.

When gold moves upwards as it has been, it’s saying that inflation is on the horizon. Wall Street has been reveling in the great economic numbers that are setting twenty year highs; however, all of that good news carries with it the cloud of rising rates. You can’t have a booming economy and 50 year low interest rates.

Australia understands that. The Australian Central government has just raised their interest rates for the SECOND time in less than a month. What’s up with that? What do they know that we don’t? My guess is that they are being truthful and Greenspan is being political. Bush #41 got wasted and lost to Bill Clinton primarily because Greenspan raised rates during his presidential election year. Will it happen again?

The official word from the Board of Governors has been that rates will stay low “for a considerable period”. Every time the FOMC gang get together they reaffirm that stance. Then today, I read that the twelve Open Market Committee gang are considering changing that statement the next time they meet. Why? Well, primarily because it’s not true. Wishing can’t make it so.

Bottom line is that Greenspan is going to go down in history as one of the worst Chairmen that the Fed has ever had. He does everything in the extreme and thus we’ve had exaggerated market booms, and busts. God only knows where he’s taking us next: except to say that rates are not going to stay down!

TIS THE SEASON TO BE UGLY!

Yesterday I spoke of the Hate Bush Bash that was being held in Hollywood Tuesday night. And then it hit me- it’s December, tis the season to be ugly! I was reminded of the pictures on Drudge a couple of days ago that showed several pictures of Howard Dean looking like a mad wet hen.

In fact, I’m not sure Dean can smile. It’s one thing to go after the “hate Bush” element in the Democratic party (hey, some Democrats don’t hate Bush, they just dislike him), but it’s another to have a scowl on your face all the time.

But more to the point is Billy Bob Thornton, who plays Santa Claus: Santa like you’ve never seen him before. I mean Santa is mean, he’s a liar, and the whole movie is just plain ugly. I guess that’s why the movie is beating out every other movie having grossed nearly $17M over the weekend.

Mark Geragos says he is going to “hammer” anyone who messes with Michael Jackson. Jesse Jackson says Republicans are thieves, stealing elections. Soros sees Bush as the greatest threat to world peace. Ah, yes, tis the season. And I am wondering just how many more of them we can survive.

I’m thinking of writing and producing a movie which I’m naming, “The Ugly, The Uglier, And The Ugliest”. I wonder if Clint Eastwood might consider staring in it for me?

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