HOUSTON- WE SURVIVED #38
January 31, 2005
I got one right- barely! The Pats and Panthers both played one heckuva game but only one could win. Houston has made a great impression on those that make the decisions for future Super Bowls and an encore has been promised.
Houstonians partied-hardy with as many as 150,000 people downtown Saturday night. No one was was killed though two were shot. All three of our new sports arenas got prime attention. The Convention Center was a hit, and the new NFL Hotel headquarters was more than stylish. As the visitors and guests fly back to their respective cities, we who live here get to keep all these buildings.
So, it’s over. Well, the Janet Jackson story isn’t over yet. CBS claims they knew nothing of the ‘X-rated’ scene at the end of her act. Others claim CBS knew: let the law suits fly. Of course Janet was outdone by the professional British streaker, who though not on network TV, got 20 seconds of TOTAL exposure before 70,000 fans.
Oh, we did cancel a Continental Airlines flight that was scheduled to land at about half-time. It’s the first domestic flight cancelled due to terror threats. But, we made it Houston! Now, let’s get on with the ugly business at hand- otherwise known as the Democratic primaries. There are SEVEN of them Tuesday.
A SUPER BOWL WEEKEND!
January 29, 2005
Here we are in Super Bowl City- Houston, Texas. It’s hard to imagine the days of the Oilers, Bud Adams, and still think Super Bowl. However, this is a new city with THREE new sports stadiums, and none of the teams are called Oilers.
The Chronicle newspaper has been double its normal size. Every TV station has run a special at the end of the nightly news, and everyone is talking Super Bowl. It’s hard to believe, but it’s the truth: the top ten most watched TV programs in history have all been Super Bowl games.
I know, most people watch for the ADS and not the game. Right! I am sure that the advertisers wished that were the fact, as a one minute ad used to cost $100,000: thirty eight years ago. Today? Well, you’re lucky if you can GET a slot- and if you do, it’ll cost you $2.3 million, and that’s without production costs.
Placing an ad won’t guarantee you success either as the 2000 Super Bowl proved. Anyone remember DOT.BOMB mania? You know, when the economy was roaring (read FRAUD) in the late 90’s? There were 19 dot.com companies running commercials that year. Many of the companies had yet to sell any product, other than selling their IPO. In fact of the 19 dot.com corporations that placed ads in 2000, SEVEN of them went bankrupt within the year!
Okay, already, don’t depress me with the facts. From my vantage point, you’d only be depressed if your were a Panther! Enjoy the game!
WILL IT BE KERRY vs. BUSH?
January 28, 2005
In the red corner we have the distinguished liberal from Mass. who is a courageous veteran that fights for the little man. In the blue corner we have the “deserter” from Texas who took our young men to war so his oil buddies could make millions. So reads the Democratic script.
In the red corner we have that free-wheeling liberal from the Northeast that is out of touch with mainstream America, who was against us even going to war with Iraq in 1992. In the blue corner we have a truly courageous and compassionate conservative that we desperately need to lead us through the perils of life over the next four years. So reads the Republican script.
Owning the whole world and sitting in no corner: and embracing every color, we have the creator and maker of the world. We have the most compassionate being known to man who loves everyone, and who has built everyone for success as long as they follow His commandments. He is the champion, savior, and only one who can rescue us.
It may be Kerry, it may be Bush- for a season, for a couple of years. But if your outlook extends beyond the moment, you might consider the third Script. And, He’s not called us to be His number one SALESMAN: just His SATISFIED CUSTOMER!
A WALK ON THE WILD SIDE?
January 27, 2005
Like I said yesterday and months before that: The stock market has gotten WAY ahead of itself, and all of the fundamentals are being violated. So what you say?
Well, if you were long the market Monday all was well, and your stock broker’s advice was just peachy-keen! Then came Tuesday and the Dow tanked 93 points. Today the Dow dropped another 142 points. Low and behold the Dow is only up a superstitious 13 points for the whole month that only has two days to go. Will the Dow begin the year down the first month? We’ll know in less than twdays.
But, if you were long GOLD (as I am) the day started with gold closing up $4.50- but then after gold closed- and before the markets closed: BANG! In the after-markets gold is down $6! But don’t worry, the fundamentals for GOLD are FABULOUS.
Ever heard of the G-H (Gold-Hyperinflation) Index? It’s simple. Every 55.8 years gold hits a high. The last few modern times were 1781, 1837, 1893, 1948, and the next one would fall exactly in the 3Q of 2004. Looks to me like the gold train is going to be right on time. The “author” of this Index (Y.T. Wong) expects gold to go from it’s current $410 to more than DOUBLE!
Wanna walk on gold’s wild side? 
KERRY OR THE STOCK MARKET?
January 26, 2005
As I tried to decide which story to comment on (Kerry or the market), I opted for the unexpected. Kerry was expected to win, and he did. The stock market is supposed to go up every day and it dropped big time Tuesday. Kerry and Bush are the most probable candidates and I think it will be another nail-biter at this point. Florida may once again be the decision-maker. But, that’s a long way off.
So, what about the economy? How are we doing financially in the world? Will we see the Dow set a new record in 2004? Will the Nasdaq go back to 5,000? No. And, No! The ’sucker rally’ has about run it’s course. The tax refunds have run out. The market has been up 9 of the last 11 months in a row and it has basically discounted all that can be- and then some.
Question(s). Why is the top bond expert in America saying Dow 5,000 is just down the road? Why is Warren Buffett saying he can’t find any stocks worth buying as they’re all over-valued? Why is long-term pro, Templeton, bearish about the future? Why is Soros taking his money out of America? And why are the insiders, those CEO’s who own a lot of their own company’s stock, selling as fast as they are?
In other words, why are the richest, smartest men in America negative and avoiding the stock market while the Mutual Fund managers are buying? Could it be because the mutual fund pros are gambling your and my money- and not theirs?
So, while the media is concentrating on Kerry, I’ve got my eye on the markets and what I see doesn’t look or smell right!
DIGITALLY DEFINING DAYS
January 25, 2005
It amazes me as to just how fast the world is changing and yet how much in denial so many people are. I spent a year trying to convince people (3+ years ago) around the theme “Digital Dominion” that things are changing fast! Those who embrace the new digital world will survive, but those who stay in their analog closets, will perish.
Oh, it’s not a natural death but it is certainly an emotional one as well as a financial one. Let me review just a few things that are altering the landscape of our world: have been and increasingly are.
The internet’s buying appeal and power is taking more and more business (clicks) away from the “bricks”. You not only save the middle man’s fees by buying over the internet, but you also avoid taxes which basically offset shipping costs in most transactions.
NAFTA and the WTO are just a couple of initials that speak of the fact that we’re a global economy-world with major competitive conflicts. Information is now at your finger tips (Do you GOOGLE?) and it’s increasingly difficult for tyrannical governments to keep the truth from people. I’m going to be interested to see what happens in Venezuela this year There is Chavez’s- well, I can’t use the word I’d like to: and then there’s the real story that comes through the internet.
Most importantly there’s the international profiteering concepts that say businesses will do business where there is a profit- and HOW they can make a profit. Can you translate that sentence into jobs will increasingly be lost in America as they go to India and China?
I don’t care who we elect as president- job loss is job problem #1. These are truly different, digital days that are defining our future. Are you really looking down the road a couple of years and planning accordingly?
A VERY RICH LIFESTYLE!
January 23, 2005
When you hear that “it’s too good to be true”, it probably is. Most people would agree with that philosophy; however, when it comes to life in general in America we seem to go blank. Say what?
I just had breakfast with a grocery store manager this morning who said it was almost impossible to hire people for easy jobs at $6.65 an hour. People want-expect more! Last night I had dinner with a hospital financial administrator who routinely writes off tens of thousands of dollars in patient expenses each day.
In California union grocery clerks went on strike asking for more than the $19 an hour they’re being paid.
Every political candidate is promising better health care benefits, more jobs, and or course a better living for every American. Isn’t that the problem? We’ve been promised so much by so many politicians that there’s no more room at the top. And yet the promises keep coming.
Americans enjoy the most lavish lifestyle in the world, and one that greatly exceeds any society in history. And we want more! In fact, we’re demanding more. We’re also facing such staggering national deficits that we’re about to implode and bring the world along with us.
It’s too bad that it’s impossible for someone to run on a record of restraint, sound fiscal policy, and integrity.
DID I WASTE MY TIME TONIGHT?
January 21, 2005
After spending two hours listening to the Democratic debate, I had to ask myself why? Could I have done something better with those 120 minutes? I could have cleaned the toilet bowls, wiped the mold off the shower stall, or something really important like that, right?
So, didn’t I learn something? Well, now that you asked, yes. I learned that Al Sharpton knows nothing about America’s financial system or the Federal Reserve. Sen. Edwards doesn’t have a clue about Islam or what the Federal government’s role is in regards to marriage. He’s been a Senator for less than one term, and he’s definitely not ready for prime time.
Droopy (aka Joe Lieberman) was as nice and as kind as he always is, meaning he has no reason being in the ring with all those other rabid dogs.
Gen. Clark has been a life-long military man; however, he proved he’s mastered being a politician very quickly by evading the most simple of questions. He refused to disagree with Michael Moore’s statement that Bush wa-is a deserter. Wasn’t Bush his Commander-in-Chief for two years. Duh! That was not a tough one Wes.
Then there’s Dean who is well, Dean. He’s about as far left as anyone can get and he’s pulled Kerry that way also. Kerry was the consummate politician and didn’t deviate from his script that we’ve heard forever. So? So, did I waste my time? I’ll have to get back with you on that one for sure, but currently, my opinion is- YES!
AN APPROPRIATE DREAM!
January 20, 2005
I’m going to take today’s commentary to just relate a brief dream-thought from Dow Theory editor, Richard Russell. I think you can get the point. If not, e-mail me.
“A guy drives up to your house in a Mercedes and asks you how much you want for your house. You don’t want to sell it so you throw out a phony price. You smile sheepishly and say ‘I’d take six million for the house.’
Sold, the man says. He turns to his car and pulls out a funny looking printing machine. He pushes a button and immediately out comes a stream of $100 bills. In ten minutes he hands me a pile and says that I don’t need to count it because the machine is never wrong: $6,000,000.00 in crisp new $100 bills.
But you say, I wasn’t talking about PAPER dollars, I want six million in GOLD for my house. With that he picks up his printing machine and heads back to the car- along with the newly printed bills. He then turns and with a snarl says, ‘Next time say what you mean. Six million in gold? Are you nuts? I don’t have a stinking machine to make gold.”
Ahh, and therein is the real story isn’t it?
THE DAY AFTER CAUCUSES!
January 19, 2005
The rabid press is all over Howard Dean like the proverbial white on rice. Drudge ran pictures all day of Dean. You know, like those terrible pictures we all take from time to time and we wish we could burn!
To make matters worse, Drudge even carried the audio of Dean’s rant from Monday night while Fox ran it over, and over, and over. When the Press and Media comes after you it’s like a feeding frenzy: often times worse!
And now that Kerry seems to be leading (since he won one caucus), Newsmax and others are running headline ads that you should know the REAL John Kerry. What is there about trash that makes it sell so well?
Anyway, here we are the day after Iowa, and the hour before Bush brings us the State Of The Union address. Like I said many months ago, 2004 would go down as one of the worst political years in history. The rhetoric is getting loud, ugly, personal, and vicious. And the Democrats still haven’t selected a leader. Once the Democratic nominee is set, the war will begin in earnest.
So it’s on to NH, the Missouri, South Carolina, Michigan, California….hold on, hold on. I think I’m beginning to sound like Dean even though I’m not SHOUTING!
WHAT’S LEARNED FROM IOWA?
January 18, 2005
It looks like we’ve got a whole new ball game: at least if you are a Democrat! John Kerry blows everyone away at 38% and John Edwards with 32%. So, are we going to have a beauty contest after all?
But more importantly, what were the lessons learned out of Iowa? First, it’s still about momentum even though organization is important. Probably the biggest lesson is that people are tired of UGLY politics, at least until the general election.
Anger or at least ‘angry Howard’ is not sitting well with the public. Iowans at least have decided that Dean is just too radical and they’re looking for someone who can beat Bush. Both Kerry and Edwards were for the war in some fashion while Dean made the war his central issue.
So, now it’s on to New Hampshire! Gephardt has dropped out and Barbara Streisand will have to get a new horse to ride. She supported Dick you know. And what’s Gore thinking now? We will add Liberman and Clark to the picture this week, but we could also kick Liberman out when the NH results come in.
So, is it going to be a three-man race: Kerry, Edwards, and Clark? Can Dean make a come-back? He’s still leading by ten points in NH. Might there be a brokered convention? Or will Kerry run away with it? Hey what do I know. I thought Dean would pull out Iowa. So what I learned from Iowa is that I don’t know ‘Democratic politics’.
And then tonight the President gets to edge in a word about life in America and other political things.
TAKE A LEAP- WHAT’S TO LOSE?
January 17, 2005
Conventional wisdom says that Kerry has jumped to the top of the pack, and the Des Moines poll on Sunday showed Kerry with 26% and Dean 19%. My, my what a turn around. Or, is it?
And John Edwards is second in the polls. So, is it Kerry-Edwards on top, really?
Well, never being shy about what I think, let me give you how I think it will all tunrn out come Tuesday morning. After all I may not always be right, but I am certain!
One of the first considerations for me is the WEATHER! Yep, the weather. The last look I had was that it was to be around FIFTEEN degress above ZERO Monday during the DAY and a couple of degress above ZERO at night when the caucuses meet. I’m thinking not a lot of older people are going to get out. I’m thinking that only crazy young people and labor-led zealots will venture out.
I’m also thinking that though John Edwards has come on strong at the end, he doesn’t have the organization that Dean or Gephardt has. So, what’s it all say to me? Okay here goes. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Dean 29%, Gephardt 27%, Kerry 25%, and Edwards 19%. I know, my top two and bottom two are inverted from what the pros are saying, but didn’t you know, I’m a CONTRARTIAN! What’s your guess? E-mail me so I can give you credit Tuesday morning. The e-mail button is at the top right hand corner.
UP, UP AND AWAY- WHICH WAY?
January 15, 2005
Can you believe it? It’s just like deja-vu, all over again. The Dow has gone up for EIGHT straight weeks in a row and nine of the last eleven. The Nasdaq is up, up and away. But, which way is all of this headed?
No market goes straight up, though the 1995-2000 market came close. Remember 5,000 Nasdaq and all those silly statements and books (39,000 Dow and Dow 100,000)? Coming off of the Bush tax cuts, unlimited liquidity provide by Greenspan’s printing presses, and with the lowest interest rates in a half century+, how could the market not respond?
But, with interest rates at 1%, there’s really no direction they can go but UP. And, with evaluations and debt as high as they are, there’s no way stocks can go but DOWN. The only question is howsoon will it all happen before the Nov. elections?
Everything has to correct at some point. We saw that in gold this week as it tumbled from $430 an ounce to $407. The HUI took a 15% haircut, and most gold stocks fell 5-15%.
Yes, the stock market is all aglow with excitement; however, the recent run-up will shortly have it’s corection and the BEAR market rally will probably end around elecion time. There’s one thing for sure, and that is that the market will be quiet Monday. It’s a holiday!
FOUR MORE DAYS AND THEN?
January 14, 2005
Ahh, the pollsters are making a fortune now. And the Democrats have a real war in Iowa with FOUR (count em) men bunched at the top- all within that infamous range of error. It used to be that we got the most recent poll every week or so but now it’s a daily poll!
So, with four more days to go in Iowa it seems that no one knows who is going to win. Well, Carol Mosely-Braun won’t since she backed out. With Lieberman and Clark opting out of the race for greener (and colder) pastures in New Hampshire, and Sharpton being a non-entity, it looks like anyone of the FIVE remaining candidates might win. Don’t rule out Edwards.
Next Tuesday we will finally have the first chapter of the Democratic run to political suicide completed and then it’s on to NH. After NH we have two big Tuesday’s wherein we’ll finally get to see who’s left standing.
Meanwhile Bush is trying to fend off the conservatives who don’t like his stand on Mexican immigration nor his lack of spending restraints, citing the fact that he’s yet to veto one bill. But, he definitely has the easier road. And if you think about it four more days in Iowa is a lot more comfortable than being in the NE where temperatures are in the MINUS ZERO range!
Visit Our Sponsors...
Advertisements
