THE LAST DAY FINALLY ARRIVES!
October 31, 2005
The two candidates are giving it all they have as there are in the final stretch. The two candidates hit seven states -in ONE DAY! And as we bring this two year campaign to a close, my body is conflicted. My heart is for Bush, but my gut and head believe Kerry will win.
Almost all of the polls are tied or Bush ahead by a point. What’s troubling (for me at least) is that for the last week the polls have been moving towards Kerry. Historically, it’s the last few days that the undecided move one way or the other. They appear to be moving to Kerry.
The turn out is going to be HUGE- and in the terms of today’s environment, that bode’s ill for an encumbent. I will make my final prediction late tonight; however, as I see it today, it’s Kerry in Florida and Pennsylvania (maybe even Ohio) and that’s the end of the debate.
One other wild card in several Mid-western states is the vote on same-sex marriage- that could help Bush. He needs it.
12th TIME A CHARM OR……?
October 31, 2005
Tuesday, we will see if Alan Greenspan can make it TWELVE in a row (rate hikes). In a little over one year, Greenspan has raised the rate from 1% to 3.75%, so bring on 4%. And, my bet is that he makes it unlucky 13 before he says adios January 31st.. Continue Reading »
A BRIEF COMMENTARY
October 30, 2005
As I am enjoying the incredible beauty of a transitioning Northern California landscape on a three day get-away. I’ll be brief this morning and maybe elaborate more tonight.. Continue Reading »
THE EXCITING LAST THREE DAYS
October 29, 2005
Okay, so we’ve forgotten Ammmo-gate, and many had until this week, forgotten the fact that we’re at WAR! The first tape by an American was chilling enough, but Friday’s tape with Bin Laden took things to another level.
And therein comes the massive political problem. Does our government increase the terror alert level? Would it benefit Kerry or Bush if we did so? Would it matter? What happens if we don’t raise the alert and we are hit in the last three days? You know the answer to that.
What happens if we do raise the alert and Bush wins (or loses)? The stakes are so high and it could all come down to one decision, one perceptional miscue. If the race wasn’t so close, it might not matter.
And then just when you think we’ve got the message from Bin Laden on Friday, we find out that all that’s been played is five of the eighteen minutes. Why aren’t they playing the other thirteen minutes? What’s that all about. Ahh, the intrigue of it all. We knew the last few days would be exciting, but as I have been saying for months, it just could be that the final strategies are not in our hands, but in the hands of fate and destiny. We shall soon see.
PS. Florida and Ohio are so back and forth, I am going to wait until Monday night to make my predictions on those states and thus the election as a whole.
WHAT A POLITICAL HEY-DAY!
October 29, 2005
For all of those who were wondering IF UBL was still alive- well, wonder no more. It was looking like the on-going “Ammo-Gate” was still going to be the big news of the day until UBL’s tape was released. Ammo-Gate got more weird when a U.S. Army, Major Pearson, reported that his troops had removed something like 250 tons of explosives on April 13th. This one is so crazy that we needed a diversion.
So, along comes UBL with an eighteen minute tape degrading George Bush, and saying that he was misleading the American public. Now, how will this last days tape play? Both sides have been slow to react to this one. It could be a hot potato. Is it an attempt by UBL to influence the election? Duh! Wonder why UBL sent a tape, instead of an attack? How about because he couldn’t! Thank you George Bush!
Early this morning, the pollster who got it most right in 2000, John Zogby, says that he feels Kerry will win. Interesting that a man who makes his money by independent polling is saying five days in advance what “he thinks” will happen.
He just may be right. The alst five days have seen a continual slippage in the polls by Bush, particularly in Ohio that now looks to be definitely in the Kerry camp. There are ways that Bush can win without Ohio- but they are few and risky.
On the other hand, he definitely CANNOT win without both Ohio and Florida, and I mention that because those who have already voted are STRONG for Kerry (in Florida) to the tune of 57-39%. So, is Bush in trouble? If the election were held TODAY, I’d say he’d loose as I see Kerry leading in both Florida and Ohio.
Thankfully, the election isn’t today; however, something has to CHANGE in the next four days, or come Janaury 20th, we’ll have a new president. Maybe people will see this new UBL tape as a tape to help Kerry!
GENTLEMEN- RESTART YOUR ENGINES
October 29, 2005
I don’t know what it is. Maybe arrogance, maybe laziness, maybe complacency? Whatever IT is, it has affected every second term president since Roosevelt. And now Bush becomes the latest second termer to have a scandal wreck havoc with his presidency. Continue Reading »
THE THREE STOOGES ARE BACK
October 28, 2005
Larry (Fine), Curly (Howard), and Moe (Howard) used to give me great laughs. Unfortunately we lost Curly at an early age (48). Moe (77) and Larry (72) lived long and fruitful lives. But, I’m talking about the 2004 version: The U.N., IRS, and IAEA. If I needed a fourth, I could always call on George Soros.
I’m going to lump the U.N. and the IAEA together. Both of these two international organizations are competing to be TOP DOG on the planet. And, the only one blocking that is the United States. However, a U.S. without a George Bush, would be a lot easier to tackle. So, Kofi Anan hammers Bush behind his back and tries to hold off the U.S. Oil For Food scandal until after the election.
ElBaradei on the other had has been on the offensive. He’s most probably the leak on the missing explosives, and his shot across the Bush bow has at least made Bush go on the defensive, if not hurt! Both Kofi and ElBaradei would greatly love to see a JFK as president, so that the “international test” could be realized.
Ahh, that leaves us with the IRS. There’s lots of reasons to hate them; however, their latest ruling is one of those body blows. The IRS ruled Thursday that churches could not pray for the re-election of George Bush! You read that right. You can’t pray for Kerry either, but my suspicion is that if you did, there would be no retribution.
So here we are. Five days from the election and it’s tighter than the proverbial tick. It’s looking more like Bush will loose Ohio, which means he will have to win either Wisconsin or Minnesota (or both) and add Iowa to one of them. Unless there is a major change (and a blow out by either is possible in the last five days), it looks like the winner will win by just a handful of electoral votes.
My latest poll has Bush up by 2 in Florida and down by 5 in Ohio.
SO HOW WAS YOUR WEEK?
October 28, 2005
It could have been a “wipe-out” week for Bush, but as it was, it was bad enough. While Rove did NOT get indicted, he’s still in the cross-hairs of the Special Prosecutor and that keeps the Democrats foaming at the mouth! Continue Reading »
A GOOD NEWS…… BAD NEWS DAY!
October 27, 2005
Bush got on Air Force One and took off to view the damage by hurricane Wilma. He was once again being hailed as the compassionate president on top of things- good news. Once he landed, he got an ear full from people who failed to take personal responsibility for their lives by buying water and food stuffs for a couple of days- bad news! Continue Reading »
THE UNKNOWNS BEGIN TO GROW
October 27, 2005
The biggest UNKNOWN of the week as far as I am concerned is what happened to the 380 tons of explosives. Of course, Kerry KNOWS! He knows everything. He even has a PLAN! Just ask him and he’ll tell you, “I HAVE A PLAN!”.
It’s hard to believe that the NYT, CBS, and Kerry weren’t working together on this story. The story had barely hit the news outlets and Kerry had a TV ad ready to go which ran less than twenty-four hours later. It’s amazing to me that in the final week of the two year campaign, that Kerry would choose this story to be their main issue.
Maybe Kerry is running with this issue because he’s behind in the polls, or because Hawaii is leaning Bush, or because New Jersey is a tie. Just when everyone was lessening the number of battle ground states, others are increasing them.
We’re also hearing about a new al-Qaeda tape that ABC held back on for a few days. What’s amazing to me is that it’s only a tape and not an attack. This sort of thing though doesn’t work in Kerry’s favor. People will begin seeing wolves: dead people to follow mentality.
Then we have the Yasser Arafat story. Who knows what that might produce; however, if you are Kerry and the DNC, the last thing you want is any major story that doesn’t have anything to do with the U.S. elections. You can’t have anything sucking air out of the political airwaves with just six days to go.
We began the week with the same old issues. Here we are three days later and the whole political-news landscape has taken a wild turn: with more to come. And at the end of the day, I see it as Florida 1% up for Bush and Ohio 2% up for Bush.
GOING OUT WITH A BANG!
October 26, 2005
Sometimes transitions are smooth and even almost seamless. Others are a real mess. It’s the difference in two runners perfectly in tune with one another handing off the baton within the zone, each at peak speeds, versus running into each other and dropping the baton. Continue Reading »
THE PREMATURE OCT. SURPRISE?
October 26, 2005
It was looking bad for Bush on Monday as Kerry pounded the “Disaster de Jour” of the Bush Administration: the 380 tons of explosives that disappeared under our nose in Iraq last week. Kerry and all the news sources hammered the story like crazy.
On Tuesday though, we find out something entirely different. We now know that an NBC newsman was embedded with our military as they swept through the site from which the explosives were to have been stored- in April of 2003! The explosives were gone before we even got there!
The story even gets more weird as U.N. inspectors say those explosives weren’t even there long before the war began. But, do you think that would cause Kerry to back off and apologize? No way! But here’s the stunner!
CBS News (having not learned anything from their Bush Draft misguided story) was preparing to make it their “60 Minutes” story on election eve. In other words, the New York Times got ahead of the story and shot themeselves in the foot, saving CBS another embarrassment. But, what it did show (didn’t we already know it) was that the NYT and CBS are more about spewing a party line than reporting the news.
And it also shows just how biased the press is. So, now they’ll have to scramble and come up with a new October surprise. In 1992 it was the Contra Story- breaking in the last week. In 2000, it was the Bush drunk driving charge in the last week. With this story prematurely out (even if wrong), the press and the DNC will have to come up with another surprise.
Hey maybe the RNC can come up with their own surprise! Or, maybe we the PEOPLE can come up with a November surprise of our own.
PS. Florida is a tie, Ohio is 2%+ for Bush (my on-going analysis of three polls).
ABSOLUTELY NO PLACE TO HIDE
October 25, 2005
Most often, being the President of the United States ia a cool thing. The office has been called the most powerful in the world- until now. Continue Reading »
DETAILED STATE OUTLOOK-
October 25, 2005
If the elections were held today, I’d say the Republicans would pick up two Senate seats and six Representative seats. But, we’re still ONE WEEK away- and anything can happen in those seven days.
In many of those Senate seats, it’s way too close to call. A week from now, the Senate could stay 51-49, or the Republicans could pick up as many as 5 seats, and with a 56-44 alignment, there would be a lot of changes in America regardless of who wins the presidential poll.
Some of the most debated Senate races to watch would be: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North & South Carolina, and South Dakota. Then there’s Louisiana where a Republican candidate needs to get 50% of teh vote (against two Democratic candidates) or else we have to wait for thirty more days to see what the Senate final count looks like.
In the presidential race, I’m ready to put Michigan, New Jersy and Pennsylvania firmly in Kerry’s camp, while putting Virgina, W. Virginia, and Arkansas in the Bush column. That leaves me with twelve states in play. And of course Florida and Ohio are the most critical. My latest assessment in those two states in Florida a TIE, and Ohio 2% leaning Bush.
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