AM I SMELLING DEFEAT ?
October 24, 2005
I hope that my internal senses are just picking up clutter: however, I can’t ignore the many signals or which I will list that say the Bush camp is seeing defeat- for themselves.
In an interview over the weekend, Laura Bush talked about their administration “having done all that they could have done and they were proud of their accomplishments”. A premature concession speech? In another interview Bush talked about how his presidency would not be known or fully understood until fifty years from now. Hmmm.
Then Dick Cheney comes out and forecasts a 52-47 final decision in election numbers. From my viewpoint, any time a candidate makes such predictions, it’s wishful thinking designed for a ‘hoped-for’ win.
And then we have the stock market. Since I am writing before the open of the U.S. market, I am referring to Europe and more specifically the Nikkei, which dropped more than 1,200 points. Many leaders may want Bush out; however, his departure will devaste markets in 2005, and the rest of 2004.
Oh yes, and then there are the twenty-eight states that have early voting. Data in for the first week show that Democrats are turning out in higher percentages than have the Republicans- and that’s a fact, not a fantasy. So, let’s hope it’s just the early morning jitters. Let’s hope I am wrong- even though Bush is now trailing by 1% in must-win Florida. 
TRANSITIONING - BUT TO WHAT?
October 24, 2005
It’s now been made official. Bush has chosen the replacement for Alan Greenspan. Ben Bernanke is the man who has been chosen to inherit the mess created by Alan. I sure don’t envy this man. Continue Reading »
THE MULTITUDE OF BETTER PLANS
October 23, 2005
JFK represents to me, the worst of American politics: not the man, but the premises. It is endemic to ALL politicians that you OFFER what people WANT TO HEAR: promise the world and people will vote for you. When John Edwards promised that about every disease known to man would be cured if JFK was elected, politics hit a low. Saying that JFK will push stem-cell research and people will get out of their wheelchairs is the saddest of false expectations in politics.
But, leaving the wild and outrageous promises aside, let’s look at some of the more plausible promises: which aren’t.
Use some common sense. There is simply no way to win the war in Iraq, fight terrorism world-wide, protect our home land, add 40,000 troops to the military, add ten million jobs to our economy, reduce the debt, give everyone a helath-care program, and only raise taxes a little on the top 2%. Those are just a few of the promises that Kerry has made. And they are totally IMPOSSIBLE to fulfill. He knows it, his team knows it, but I wonder how many of those listening know it?
To begin with, the Republicans are still going to control the House and Senate, so nothing will get done. Change or progress would be hard if Bush were re-elected. So, when you hear about all those BETTER PLANS (and Kerry has one for everything imaginable) he has for a new America, forgetdaboutit! It’s not going to happen. It’s the ultimate of spin, the highest of deception, and the lowest of political strategies.
PS. Ohio is now +2 for Kerry and Florida is a tossup!
TWO MORE WEEKENDS TO GO!
October 22, 2005
There are two things that I can’t imagine. The first is just how tiring the campaigning has to be at this point for both candidates. The second is even more difficult to imagine: how will the one who loses actually feel? But, the good news is that there are only two weekends and eleven days to go!
Every resource available is being called upon. Condi Rice here and Powell there. Clinton here and Gore there. Oh yes, and don’t forget the Terminator! He is scheduled for a day in Ohio very soon.
It appears that Kerry finally agrees with the polls: Bush is doing better among women. So, do you think it’s a surprise that we’ve not seen Teresa the last two days (except as shown on The Drudge Report, drinking beer- aka First Lady Of Fun). In her place, we have seen “other women” at Kerry’s side. Thursday it was Mrs. Christopher Reeves, and Friday, it was Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg.
The polls tighten and get stranger- day by day. Something has to happen for one or the other, or we’re headed for an event that will make Florida 2000 look like a walk in the park. I said many moons ago that I felt one candidate or the other would pull away- or, some unseen event would thrust one of the other into the lead. One thing is for sure (just a weird conspiracy theory), and that’s IF Israel takes out those Iranian nuclear plants between now and November 2nd, the whole landscape changes. Just a thought that popped into my head today.
And has anything changed in Florida (Bush 1+), Ohio (Bush 2+) since yesterday? My reading (compilation of my three polls) is that Florida was unchanged, but Ohio dropped a percent, leaving Bush up only 1+. Talk about tight! But, it’s just Friday, October 22nd. 
WATCH THIS COMING WEEK!
October 22, 2005
I usually leave some of the more wacko-like, prophetic stuff to my other daily commentary: LRCHouston.com! But as I scan the horizon with my fallible mental radar machine, I am picking up some strange stuff, to which I have no clue as to what it all means! Continue Reading »
THE ONLY POLLS THAT COUNT-
October 21, 2005
With just a dozen days left, the race for the White House narrows even further. Put aside who got a flu shot and who didn’t. Forget who is a working mom and who is not. Let’s get down to the nitty-gritty in these truly- last days.
From Federalism #101, I learned there are fifty states in this Republic. And, at last count, twenty seven of them don’t count! Am I sounding like an Aflac commercial yet? You see, no one cares about states like Texas, California, or New York where one candidate or the other has a 20-50% lead. I mean in the District Of Columbia, Kerry leads Bush 67-33%. You think Bush is going to spend any money or time there? Duh!
Another twelve states give one candidate or the other a 5-10% lead: like Mississippi (10% Bush), and Connecticut (10% Kerry). It’s doubtful either candidate will waste any time or money there either. So, if my math is correct, we’re down to only eleven states that have a 5% or less lead for one candidate or the other.
Of those eleven, I am focusing on FIVE of them that I think will make a difference. I follow three major polling entities and when I compare them, I come up with the following data. Bush leads in two of those states (Florida and Ohio by less than 2% in both states). Kerry leads in two states (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 2-4%). And it’s a tie in Minnesota!
While Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, West Virgina, and Maine are still in play, together they only have 25 electoral votes (2 less than Florida alone). As I have been saying, Bush must win both Florida and Ohio or he loses the election. Yes, there may be a couple of scenarios in which he could lose one of those two states, and still win, but it would be highly unlikely. Win both and he’s won four more years.
So, from here to there (Nov. 2), I will list (each day) how I see what my three polls are saying about where those two states are. At the end of Thursday it was: Bush ahead in Ohio by 2% and Florida by 1%!
FLU SHOT TAKES CENTER STAGE
October 20, 2005
If you would have asked anyone a year ago, six months ago, or one month ago, what John Kerry would be complaining about, or talking about in the last two weeks of the campaign, I doubt you would have guessed a FLU SHOT!
Ahh, but there it was at the top of the Drudge Report. John Kerry is not only blaming Bush for the English Company’s inability to deliver the flu shots it had planned; but, he’s upset that Dick Cheney got a flu shot! Come on, where are the BIG issues?
And, it’s not limited to JFK. How about Teresa? She’s smash-mouthing Laura Bush for not ever working: not having a real job. To her credit, she did say she was sorry for not remembering that Laura was a teacher and a librarian. But, what do you call a mother who raises two daughters? Leisure time?
Ahh, but we’re in the mud-slinging final days. The days before we have ten thousand attorney’s (the Democrats have admitted to this number) challenge anything and everything about the election. As for me, if there ever was a candidate who SHOULD get the flu shot, it’s Dick Cheney. With his age and heart problems, you can’t have him getting sick! But, I digress.
I can’t wait to see what Thursday brings. Wednesday was so much fun- except for the fact that Edmonds hit one over the fence in the bottom of the twelveth inning.
Flu shots! A major political topic! It just proves to me what I heard this morning by some unknown commentator. This is the first time in history that a candidate’s (JFK) whole campaign is based on being AGAINST EVERYTHING his challenger is FOR. As Kerry said, “I wouldn’t have done ONE thing different on Iraq, I would have done EVERYTHING different.” And so he proves it for yet another day.
MAYBE MULTIPLE MUG SHOTS?
October 20, 2005
The party line remains ever constant regardless of who or which party is in power. I can remember watching Bill Clinton in the midst of the Monica Lewinsky debacle, followed by his impeachment. He stood before the cameras as though nothing was happening and simply said, “I was elected to do the work of the presidency for America, and that’s what I am going to keep doing.” Right! Continue Reading »
BUYING THE 2004 ELECTION!
October 19, 2005
Just over a year ago, George Soros came straight out saying he’d spend his entire fortune to see Kerry win the election. Yeah, right! Isn’t it interesting how the RICH are always willing to give it all, until they have to do that. I think there’s something about a RICH man in the Bible along those lines.
Anyway, Soros has given somewhere in the vicinity of $25,000,000: lot’s of bread for you and I, but chump-change for George. I’m sure he won’t miss it.
I just posted a story where Matt Damon said, while in Germany, that he’d give a million dollars to see Kerry in the White House. Well, my counsel is, go ahead and send Kerry a check. Maybe you’ll get lucky.
And then we have Deborah and Andrew Rappaport who have offered Sinclair Network $1,000,000 to air a pro-Kerry film. While I really appreciate all of the zeal and passion, I am afriad our founding fathers saw just such a situation, so they gave each of us ONE VOTE! Yes, you can support your local candidates by spending all the money you want. You can offer crack-cocaine (as was the case in Ohio this week) to sign up voters, and you can do all sorts of illegal things, but you can only vote once: I hope!
We’re now less than two weeks away from November 2nd. I never thought we’d get here. Bush is pulling away in the national polls; however, he is falling behind in the key battleground states. I’m still waiting for the ’surprises’.
SAVED BY THE GAVEL!
October 19, 2005
There are no bells in the court room, so when presiding judge, Rizgar Mohammed Amin (a Kurd), brought down the gavel at the end of the first day of Saddam’s trail, we got spared big time! The trial has been put back 5 weeks meaning it won’t happen until after Thanksgiving and then our minds will be someplace else. Continue Reading »
DO THE CRIME AND PAY THE TIME!
October 18, 2005
How is this for a novel idea. When we find someone breaking the law, clearly and not in doubt, let’s arrest them and carry out whatever legal proceedings the law violated states. Surely we wouldn’t recommend an environment whereby some laws could be broken while otHers are upheld! Would we? Continue Reading »
A NEW LITMUS TEST?
October 18, 2005
It’s fun watching both Kerry and Bush squirm and wiggle when asked about the abortion issue. When push comes to shove, there are basically two differences between the two men. Neither candidate wants to be positioned as for or against this or that; however, Kerry voted against trimester- late term abortions while Bush is obviously against them. And, while Kerry supports Roe v. Wade, it’s also obvious that Bush would like to repeal it.
But, I think the biggest “litmus” test for THIS presidential debate is who does OUR enemy (actually plural) support? Whoever our actual and perceived enemy is FOR, I am against. Early on in the campaign, Kerry sent a ‘test balloon’ aloft to see how people would respond to ‘other national presidents’ being FOR him, and against Bush. When the political winds said that wouldn’t fly, he backed off the strategy.
As we get close to the election though, more and more radical groups are backing Kerry. Even some of Germany’s influential leaders said they “might” send troops until the official word came down that such a philosophy wouldn’t work. You don’t want to show your hand or make Bush mad, until you know Kerry is a winner. Duh!
Monday, Arafat came out in favor of Kerry and I am sure that over the next two weeks that you’ll find those whom oppose the U.S. rooting for Kerry, much like the English getting involved in Ohio politics last week. Malaysia’s recently retired Muslim Prime Minister, Mahathir came out for Kerry Monday also.
So, based on my litmus test of who the enemy is for (Kerry), I’d say Americans should vote for Bush. But, since I already voted for him on Monday, that theory might appear biased: and rightfully so. But I still pose the question as a valid one.
IT IS TIME TO GO AND VOTE
October 18, 2005
Right after I write this commentary, I am off to vote. Most often, I vote early at a local Lutheran church and I’ve never experienced a line. We’ll see how it goes in about an hour.
Now, in Florida, you have a different animal. There are already problems in West Palm Beach. What is it about those hand full of counties in Florida that just can’t seem to get it right? The Florida Supreme Court has issued a ruling on provisional ballots outside of the person’s precint: they aren’t valid! The Democrats instructions to their election workers in Florida, is to violate, and go against what the election laws say. Ahh, let the fun begin.
Then of course we have the Ohio example of where a man was given crack cocaine to sign up (ficticious) people. Is this a great nation or what? Maybe we do need the United Nations here to oversee us- as long as they aren’t involved in any food for oil deals.
Wherever you find man, you find STUFF! It’s the nature of who we are. Have we truly found the enemy, and it is US? Or as Gore Vidal said, “Man is a virus to the world. Either the host (earth) dies, or the virus dies, or both die.” But then, there’s still time to change- if we will. In the meantime, I’ve gotta go vote!
PS. For the first time I found a line. I was 43rd in line that took 30 minutes to process. I was the 907th voter. Looks like there might be a historical turn-out: at least for Houston, if day one holds up.
THE BULL IN THE CHINA CLOSET
October 17, 2005
What I am about to write is not a defense of Tom DeLay. I’ve met the man and like others, I have heard reports of his persona for years. But, I really don’t KNOW him. Reputations are interesting events that unfold in all of our lives. You can ask two different people about anyone of us and the listener-observer would wonder if they were talking about the same person. Continue Reading »
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