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TELL ME IT AIN’T SO MARTHA!

The Dow started the year at 10,783 and it will on TAX DAY (Friday) at 10,278. If my math is right, the Dow is down 505 points nearly 30% of the way into this not so new year. And the bad news doesn’t stop there. As Richard Russell said, “Today was a real liquidating market. Frankly, I can’t ever remember seeing both the Dow and the Transports BOTH down over 100 points on the same day.”

Is the sky falling? I don’t think so, but it seems everything else is. The Dow also fell below it’s 200 day moving average, is sitting exactly on it’s 89 day moving average, has hit a low for 2005, violating it’s February ’05 lows, and did so on an expanding 2.2 BILLION shares traded: not a good sign at all. If this won’t drive the bog boys out of the market what will? Or, did oday’s volume prove they have already hit the exits?

Need I say that the Nasdaq is doing even worse and there’s no good news in the S&P500. For that matter, I think we have to question if deflation is an entirely dead issue. Gold fell through the floor today, and has been headed down for two solid weeks now. Such action would portend deflation. The CRB index was pushing 330 just a couple of weeks ago and now it’s at 299. These two items (gold and CRB) are signaling deflationary times.

Let me end with Richard Russell’s closing comment on Thursday’s action. “When in January, the major stock averages broke below their December lows, I wrote that it was a bad omen. But I said that the January lows must hold. Today the Dow and the Transports both closed below their January lows. Now we have what I would call a Dow Theory bear signal in that both Averages have etched out definite downward zig-zag formations. This is an ugly situation, and I think it pins the Fed against the wall.

Martha, I’m afraid it is so, things are not looking good in the financial markets, which eventually make everything else look not so good as well.

MEASLES, FLU & MORE FLU!

Sometimes when you read the headlines, it makes you want to just shake your head in wonder. This afternoon was one of them.

From Wisconsin we find out that health officials are screening people who came in contact with Herb Bostrom. Wisconsin Health officials declared eight years ago that their state was Measles Free. Well, they were. It appears that Herb contacted measles while on a trip to Germany. Maybe we better check Angelika out when she gets back.

Then there’s the flu: I’m talking bird flu in Viet Nam. It appears the Mekong Delta can become a killing field again! So much for going out and ordering Peking Duck. It’s estimated that some 10,000,000 birds might have to be slaughtered to stem the outbreak.

It’s not just that the birds are dying and spreading thr disease, the fear is that it would mutate, sparking a global pandemic that could kill millions of people world wide. Like I said, a different kind of killing field.

Then we come back to the good old US of A. If you’ve watched any TV at all in the last two days, you’ve had to have heard of the panic by the World Health Organization. All of a sudden they are worried about a fifty year old pandemic flu virus. They want all labs around the world to destroy such virus. Unfortunately, nearly 5,000 laboratories (80%+ in the U.S.) are said to have the virus.

The CDC in Atlanta is taking the situation seriously as well. It takes you back to the 1995 Dustin Hoffman movie. Outbreak: or it does me. How much bio terrorism strategizing has our government got going on? How much still exists somewhere in a labatory, awaiting some scenario that no one hopes will happen.

Anyway, who would have thought that FLU & MEASLES would have grabbed the headlines on April 13th, 2005?

WHAT A DISASTER IN DURHAM

Is there anyone that hasn’t heard something about the Duke Disaster? And then what is it that you’ve heard? What’s been your impression? Have the Blue Devils been demonized? Continue Reading »

AND THEN I WAS WONDERING…

It’s still too early to pull our troops out of Iraq; however, there’s nothing that says we can’t or won’t begin the process by summer- my thought. And then with the advent of Ariel Sharon’s visit to the White House this week, my mind started asking some of those “conspiracy theory” questions.

Let’s see now, Bush wants to see his road map followed. He needs to see some concessions by Israel so he can get some from the Arabs. Mistrust is the currency of trade in these negotiations. So, what does Ariel Sharon want if the “dicker-game” is on?

There’s no doubt that Israel is very much afraid of the nuclear capability of it’s Arab neighbors. We saw that a twenty four years ago when Israel went in alone and took out an Iraq nuclear plant outside of Baghdad. Rumor has it that Isreal is more concerned now about Iran’s nuclear capability, than it was Iraq’s in 1981.

So, the news leak has come out out (was that staged too?). Sharon is said to have shown Bush some scary and alarming pictures of the progress that Iran has made in it’s secret nuclear efforts- that are no longer secret. Aha!

You scratch my back, and I’ll scratch yours. I’m not sure how all this is going to work out in the midst of trying to make peace in the region, but this I do know. Isreal is not one to sit back and do nothing. And with our troops right across the border, well, well? Let’s just say it would be dumb of Iran to NOT cooperate at this juncture. And this is not just fresh news. It’s been rumored that Israel would strike for almost two months now.

SOME PEOPLE JUST DON’T GET IT!

I am sure that you have seen some of those “Dumb Crook” stories. A man robs a store with a mask and it falls off, or a robber drops his wallet with drivers license in it, etc. Continue Reading »

WITH OUR HONOR IN TACT!

Unlike Viet Nam (in spite of what Ted Kennedy. thinks), our GI’s will be returning from Iraq starting sometime this year with honors. Our young men have proven more than up to the task. As in any way, unfortunately, nearly 1,600 had to give heir all to see the job through.

I don’t know the exact time table and I doubt that our President or field commanders do- exactly. And neither does the new president of Iraq though he will an important role in the decisioon(s). Of course the press will be pressing to know when and how many. What is obvious is that to the chagrin of the Democrats, Bush will bring the troops home successfully and with deserved honors.

As I write this, the story has just broken that Rumsfeld has made another surprise visit to Iraq. You can bet he’s sizing up the situation and making some recommendations that he can bring back to Bush on the withdrawls.

It almost cost Bush a second term in office to stand pat in face of such stiff opposition to our presence in Iraq; however, I believe he learned from the difficult failures made in Viet Nam. The pull out will not be easy and in fact it could be messy. And in the final analysis, I would bet that we don’t withdraw everyone between now and 2008, in spite of the presidential elections.

Iraq still has the potential to be a disaster. It’s no longer the totalitarian mess that it once was, but neither is it a stable democracy.

NOW WHAT DOES THE WORLD DO?

You have to love the international gamesmanship! While NATO debates procedural and policy matterS, while America and Europe talk tough, Iran stakes a claim that’s intended as an end run. Continue Reading »

FILLING IN THE BLANKS

The week ahead should prove a bit difficult for the Cable News Corps., and for the major networks. When you’ve spent an entire week on one event (Pope’s funeral), it’s like picking up the pieces the following week. So, maybe I can help them out here.

First of all, we can build some hype on the cardinals conclave that’s a week from today. Just because they have taken a vow of silence doesn’t mean we can’t speculate. I got it, let’s get the Vegas odds makers involved!

Then there’s the Tiger Woods victory on a play-off hole. I know there aren’t that many people into golf, but Tiger was up by two with only two holes to go and he blows it. But, he comes back and wins. Well, maybe not.

There’s the Michael Jackson trial but as of recent that’s become an R rated affair. Need to watch the audience on that one.

Here’s something to watch that could build introgue. Up until thie weekend, it was only the Democrats that were after Tom DeLay. Now we have Rick Santorum wanting explanations and Chris Shays (both are Republicans) saysing he should step down from the party’s leadership.

Now that I think about it, I’m sure we can make this week exciting. We have blizzards in Colorado, gasoline prices going through the roof, and another earthquake in Indonesia.

Hey, you fill in the blanks.

WILL 2 WEEKS CHANGE ANYTHING?

I must admit that most of the “Immigration Marches” have been civil and peaceful. There have been reports of flag burnings and a few people beaten, but those are by far the exception. Continue Reading »

ONE WEEK DOWN- TWO TO GO!

In all reality it was an amazing week as the news outlets tried to grapple with religious terms and practices that they knew nothing about. Some of the interviews from Rome were more than laughable. But overall, I give kudos to the press for their dogged coverage.

It was a week wherein Catholicism had to gain many converts and bring some lost sheep back home. Religion in general got a well deserved wek in the sun. Secularism had to take a back seat in headlines news. So, where do we go from this week to next? Week number two will be about WHO the Pope might be and week number three will be about who he IS!

Ahh, it’s on to the intrigue of religion as we’ll read story after story as to who the new Pope will be. Every possible candidate will get press coverage. In fact, if you are interested, you can get a complete list of the 117 cardinals that are eligible to cast a vote. Will the cardinals continue to choose a Pope from the dead and dying European theatre (I’m talking converts here). Or, will they head to South America or Africa where all of their growth is coming from?

It will take an act of God to select someone outside of Old Europe. There are only 21 cardinals from South America and 11 from Africa. The fourteen from North America might make a difference in the voting. The rule is that you have to be under 80 to vote. I guess you get dumb and dumber somewhere around that age.

The conclave opens April 18th, so we have a week to hear all about who is doing what and what the consequences of the new Pope might mean. For what it’s worth (and probably not much from this non-Catholic) my early betting odds are a long shot: Hummes of Brazil, and Hoyos of Colombia. But what do I know!

PS. If you’d like a complete list of all the Pope’s in history (then tou have too much time on your hands), here it is!

IS $6.00 A GALLON GAS POSSIBLE?

It seems to me that unless America comes up with some sort of sane and alternative ways to get energy, other than oil, we will be paying $6 a gallon for gas within 2-4 years, if not sooner than that. Continue Reading »

THE DAY AFTER THE FUNERAL

Friday will be Rome’s worst nightmare if you’re a cop, and a heaven-sent bonus if you’re a merchant. It will also be the world’s largest ever funeral. He’s more than deserving. As a testament to his legacy, absolutely every flight into Rome this week has been full.

But, once the funeral is over, all those planes will be full on their out-bound destinations by many airlines that could be bankrupt before the end of the year. Why? For the same reason that it took $34 to fill up my gas tank yesterday. I am not saying that the sky is going to fall or that chicken-little has been resurrected.

I am merely addressing that which no one wants to talk about. Where is the price of oil headed? Is the $105 a barrel that was mentioned by Goldman Sach’s last week possible. Our own Energy Department is predicting higher gasoline prices, saying that by next month, we’ll be looking at an average of $2.35 a gallon , with some cities closing in on $3.50 a gallon for premium.

Even the IMF has said we’re looking at very high prices for decades to come, calling what we’ll be looking at as a “permanent oil shock“. Of course all of this hasn’t been lost on the politicians. The Democrats are already using it to show that Bush and Cheney (oil men), are keeping the prices high for thier cronies. Could it be that the ratings drop for Bush is in part because of high oil prices?

So, why Wall Street got downright giddy over the recent drop for $58 to $54 a barrel over the last three days, don’t think it’s going to last. Come Saturday, things start getting back to normal and normal is getting a lot more expensive. OPEC and Company may not be able to save the goose. The best way to get prices down is to have a long hard recession. So, maybe high gas prices aren’t that bad after all.

THE DOUBLE STANDARD OF FOX

At the last minute the Senate snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The immigration bill came down to earth in defeat do to “procedural matters”. So, off to a two week vacation they go. Continue Reading »

THE REMEMBER WHEN QUIZ

Remember when we made copies by typing (a thing done on a device called a typewriter) on a stencil, wrapping it around a drum wet with ink and hand cranking it over and over again?

Remember when we used that same device to type on a piece of paper placed on top of a piece of carbon paper, on top of another sheet of white paper, on top of: well, you get the picture.

Remember when we got away from that sticky, yucky stuff called white-out that we placed on top of our errors, producing a pocked original? And remember how less cumbersome it was when we would just stick a piece of white carbon on top of the error, strike the wrong key again, leaving us with a new white surface to type a new letter on?

You ready?

Remember when we used to go to a key map, put on our glasses, look up a street, find the coordinates, and then find an address on one of 500 pages? You mean you still do that now? Not me.

Now you can go to Google map service (what’s new about this?) and locate your address, without glasses. That’s if you can move your cursor around.

You can even take a look at your home from a satellite, like the military does, except instead of seeing your home, they can read the label on a coke can in the front yard. Where are we headed anyway? Probably to the place where we don’t even have to remember- anything!

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