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SENATORIAL SPINELESSNESS

Some of those judges that the Democrats couldn’t stomach, they now can. Some of those judges the Republicans demanded, they now don’t. In the halls of the Senate, it’s called compromise. In my book, it’s called, save our collective faces.

The Democrats only have to swallow three ultra, right-wing, looney tune Republican judges. Two others they can vote against IF they so choose. And of course, they’ll vote against any USSC judge that Bush puts up if a vacancy comes about. Can you way WHEN they come about?

But, the Republicans can once again vote for cloture if that happens. What all this means to me is that neither party must have been assured of how the vote would turn out, so instead of going for the touch down and winning, they both decided that a field goal, and a tie would be best. So, no one loses currently.

Hey, no USSC judge has resigned yet, so let’s roll this thing into overtime and see what happens. In the meantime, we don’t have to WORK. We can go back to lolly-gagging and politicing. Is there a difference?

Ahh, here’s an interesting thought. The deal was brokered in John McCain’s office and Bill Frist was quick to point out that he didn’t have anything to do with it. Are we seeing two race horses jockeying for the inside pole on the 2008 presidential election?

BACK TO THE ROMAN DAYS?

The Senate used to run Rome and the empire. What started out as a wise body of 100 men turned out to be 300 arrogant and pompous men who fought with the emperors, later on in the middle of the Republic.

Maybe our 100 member Senate is trying to remake history. I cannot believe some of the things that the Senate is trying to put into the immigration bill. They are granting rights to illegals on job sites that Americans don’t even have.

They are totally going against the wishes of the nation and totally 180 degress away from the House version. If the Senators can’t get it together in some reasonable fashion this week, any Conference committee meeting with the House is destined to fail. Today, Dianne Feinstein had her proposal reluctantly defeated that would have allowed all 12 million illegals to be able to stay and be granted citizenship. Reluctantly?

But, not to be outdone, Hastert complained that the FBI and therefore the executive branch had overstepped their territory by having William Jefferson’s Congressional office searched. Say what? Since when does the pursuit of a crime stop at the steps of Congress?

And, how long does it take a grand jury to make a decision on if it is a crime for a Congresswoman to strike an officer: even if he is just a capitol police officer?

I don’t like the looks or smell of any of our current day politics. It’s beginning to look like a re-run of an old Roman movie.

SHOWDOWN AT THE US CORRAL

We’ve been hearing about this for months. Some of the Bush nominees for various Judgeships have been on hold for FOUR years. But, this is the week that we finally settle the issue. And, things seem to be looking a bit better for the Republicans as they’ve now finally cuaght on to the “name game”.

I am not talking about the nuclear option any more, though the Democrats are. I am talking about the Constitutional option! Does Frist have the votes to pull it off? We just might find out in the next 2-3 days. McCain is trying to head off a confrontation, but with such staunch division within the U.S., it looks like a long shot.

So, unless there’s something about to pop up on the radar screen that I don’t see, there will be a vote on cloture Tuesday or Wednesday- and then things could really get ugly. The Democrats are threatening a complete shutdown of the Senate if the Republicans are successful. But at least SOMETHING is finally going on at the Capitol!

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

Ever since Thursday, May 11th all hell has broken loose on Wall Street and how I love the excuses and comments. Did you know a down market wasn’t all that bad? Are you aware that this correction is nominal? Did you know that you can now buy in at cheap prices?

Really?

There is nothing that I can see about stocks today that says they are cheap. In fact, in light of historical standards, stocks are are TWICE as expensive as they should be.

And just so you see the bigger picture since May 11th, the Dow is down 6 of 8 days: off 714 points! I’m sure glad I transferred everything to money markets on the 10th. The Nasdaq has been off 9 of the last 10 trading sessions, while the S&P500 is off 7 of the last 9 trading days.

Don’t look now, but this is an international market collapse, not just something happening on Wall & Broad. Nothing goes straight down; however, the markets have seemingly been doing that for the last ten days, as has commodities. HUI (unhedged gold stocks) has been down 8 days in a row, and 10 of the last 12. Time to go buy a few more coins.

How low can commodities go? I think they’re near the bottom, but only the future holds that answer for sure. You pay you money and you pray!

ONE BILLION IS A LARGE NUMBER!

Life is so often a two-sided coin. Maybe a better analogy would be a two-edged sword. America’s strength is also her weakness and in this instance I am talking about our digital lead in the world.

China and India are fast becoming the leading nations for digital expertise. They not only have the largest population base to work with, they are now turning out the greatest percentage of engineers, and hi-tech gurus.

Make a call to Dell to have them fix your computer, under the service agreement, and you’ll be talking to someone in India! Want a web site fast and cheap? I just met a man who is having 100 web sites designed in India for $750.

Want instant access to the world?

A milestone was reached a few months ago when 1,000,000,000, as in BILLION, had access to the internet. And 25% of them have high speed connections. America still leads in number of internet users, because of our wealth- 175 million. China is coming on fast though with 111 million internet connections.

In terms of regions, the Asis-Pacific region is the largest with 315 million users, followed by Europe with 233 million connections.

How long will America stay on top in this arena no one knows; however, what is sure is that you can now access and reach more people than any time in history- with a simple CLICK! So much of our weaponry is now tied to computers and the digital web. Take that away and America is more than vulnerable. Good news could easily become bad news unless we keep pursuing the future in the digital world.

AN AMAZING DRIFT DOWNWARD!

Two things hit me yesterday that made me stop briefly, shake my head, and wonder. What in the world can be done to bring back just some plain old common sense.

The first of course were the pictures of Saddam in his white briefs. It appears the press cannot manage it’s own affairs. I wrote last week on the First Amendment abuses and excuses that the press flaunts. It would seem that on the heels of the Newsweek story that got dozens killed, the press would be more cautious.

But noooooooooooooo!

The Sun, not your most first class publication to begin with, comes out with pictures that would surely inflame the Muslim community. And in an “in-your-face” attitude, they printed more pictures today. Is there no way to stop this freight train of press stupidity?

The second issue regarded holding a graduation class in a large church. Is there no end to the things that some people will do to rid the world of Christianity? These are not attacks on religion as much as they are on the specific beliefs of Christians.

Diversity has run amuck, and I’m afraid were stuck with some wacko mindsets that are only increasing in weirdness!

GOOD NEWS FOR AT LEAST 1 DAY

And why did Bush make a rare Sunday morning TV appearance? A man has to do what a man can do. If there is any good news out of Iraq, jump on it. And so Bush did.

Iraq now has a new government- officially! But, as the 40 member Cabinet was sworn in by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. some 33 people were killed in a series of attacks outside the infamous Green Zone.

So here’s one of many questions. Can the government do something about the violence outside the green zone? U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said we should not expect to see a quick draw down of the 132,000 military force that America has in Iraq. With U.S. elections just five months away, I am not sure Bush has the luxury of allowing the troops to remain much longer- at least not 100,000+.

Sunday was at least a good news day for Bush. Monday, we start all over again in the news cycle.

DESTRUCTION IS THE VERBAGE

It seems that it doesn’t matter what the topic is. When one picks up a newspaper (they still sell them don’t they?) or logs on to a news source, the common thread through every story is DESTRUCTION. It seems as though our society is bent on it.

Every game that sells well has to do with killing or taking out the enemy. If a movie doesn’t have action blowing up cars, houses, and anything, it’s not going to do well. The fantasy of course has come from real life.

Congress is debating the “nuclear” option and you will be hearing about that allfor another week at least. Iran and North Korea are building nuclear bombs and it seems there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it. What’s this world going to look like when a couple dozen nations have nuclear bombs.

So, just when you think we’ve heard it all, we’re now adding SPACE to the issue. Russia is up in arms (tongue in cheek) over the possibility that America will deploy combat weapons in space. Of course the White House has denied any policy to weaponize space; however, historical behavior tells us that a denial is usually an assurance of the matter.

If we do weaponize space for the continual destruction of our planet, what’s left to destroy?

A CULTURE OF CRAZY RISK TAKERS

The DOW lost 500 points in the last seven days of trading, which turns out to be the worst seven day drop in years. But, that could easily be a drop in the bucket compared to what’s not only possible, but probably coming at some point.

Our economic infrastructure is so complex that no one can completely comprehend it. Within it there is a time bomb that’s ticking away. It’s called the Derivatives Bomb! And what’s a derivative? Can you say “legalized betting”? Will a hurricane hit New Orleans this year? How much do you want to bet? Will a hurricane hit Houston, a tornado hit Dallas, etc? Just bet $1,000,000 and put down only 1% and you’re on!

It’s how life works today!

In 1988 there were $1T in derivatives. Six years later there was $10T, and today, it is estimated that we’re approaching $400T in derivatives. Does anyone know exactly?

Remember Nick Leeson (1995) who put Barings bank in bankruptcy? How about the LTM hedge fund that shook the markets and forced a Fed. structured $3.5B bail out? How about Fannie Mae (2003) that lost $1.9T? Are you getting the picture?

I am “smelling” that several people got hurt last week and are on the ropes. The top three banks have near $100B in derivaties (JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and BOA). John Crudele said, “”JPMorgan Chase’s dabbling in derivatives makes it too big for even the Fed to bail them out.”

Warren Buffet said, “Derivatives are financial WMD’s.” We will not be able to sniff out these WMD’s any better than we did those of Saddam Hussein.

I love to gamble: betting is just in my blood. However, I’ve become more of a reasoned, if not seasoned, risk taker. I’m betting our lust for stuff, greed, and insatiable Las Vegas-style betting at these levels will have a bad ending.

WORD OWNERSHIP POWER!

As the debate has raged on regarding approval of the Bush judge nominees, my mind made an interesting connection to the abortion issue. For some reason, the Democrats (at least in these two cases) have gained an advantage simply by the choice of the words they use.

Almost all arguments are won by the person who ASKS the questions. Pose the question in the right way, and you immediatley have the other person on the defensive. I’ve been told it works the same way in a lawsuit. If two sides are contemplating a lawsuit, be the first to file!

But, there’s yet another important point in in any contest, especially when it involves public opinion. On the abortion issue the word LIFE does not resonate as well with the public as does the word CHOICE. After all, in America where democracy and the freedom to choose are the foundation, most people would side with PRO CHOICE over PRO LIFE.

And when it comes to the battle over the judges, the term “NUCLEAR OPTION” has nothing to do with the issue; however, it does make the public think those that
are for it somehow want to incenerate the rest of us. To win the public’s nod in this case, the Republican’s need to begin calling it the “Constitutional Option”.

After all, no where does the constitution say that 60% of the Senators must approve the President’s selection (that’s a new age house rule) for judges; however, the Democrats would want you to think that’s the case. And, since they OWN the word and phrase NUCLEAR OPTION, they are currently looking like the good guys.

FROM THE POT INTO THE FIRE!

As I caught glimpses of news reports today, and scanned a few web sites, it apepars to me that immigration has overtaken Iraq as the top news item, but has that helped Bush? Or, has Bush gone from the scalding, boiling water of Iraq to the fires of immigration?

Maybe the better question is, has he gone from a knock down left-jab, to a knock out right hand?

So much for metaphors!

I’m trying my best to understand what Bush is thinking here; however, I just don’t get it. And I sure don’t understand what’s up with the Senators? Hopefully the Representatives will strand their ground and not give in to this do-little effort called “guest worker” with little in the area of “border enforcement”.

So, we’re going to build 370 miles of fence. Let me see here. With a 2,000 mile border, the 800,000 annual illegals who cross over will not be able to figure out where the other 1,630 miles of unprotected fences are not built. Are we really that dumb? It appears to me to be a $1.9 BILLION throwing of money as a fix for something much larger.

And does Bush think that a Video-opt to Yuma is going to somehow make me feel he’s right? Isn’t protecting our borders part of national security? Maybe we should spend more time searches the borders than searches people and bags at domestic airports.

WHAT’S SO BIG ABOUT $11 BILLION?

As if Bush doesn’t have his hands full with the Democrats on getting his judges approved, he’s fighting all the Democrats and a handful of Republicans over the Bolton nomination. Wasn’t it just a few months ago that the White House was all aglow over having won so big in the November elections? So, what’s up with this?

Now, Bush is having to threaten a veto (it would be his first ever veto) over the Highway appropriations bill. The House gave him what he wanted in a $284B deal; however, the Senate snubbed their collective noses at his threat of a veto if they presented a bill higher than the House bill.

So, the Democrats and a majority of the Republicans, said ‘in your face Bush’, and they passed a $295B highway bill. So, now it’s on to the compromise process between the two houses. Will the House prevail, or will the Senate get their way. And when it comes down to it, will Bush really veto the bill if it is just $11 Billion more than he wanted? And that’s over six years, so we’re just looking at less than $2 Billion a year. Chump change.

Watch this one for clues as to just how LAME of a duck Bush might be in his second term that’s only in the first half of the first year!

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES

This time last week Wall Street had the champagne on ice. The Dow was only 83 points from an all-time high. This time last week, Wednesday as I write this post, I had thought I was done with the 4-part economic picture; however, I added a 5th part with a warning about the markets.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Thursday and Friday the Dow dropped double-digits. Today (Weds), the Dow cratered 214 points (the biggest one day drop in 3 years)! Within a week, the champagne has been put back on the shelf.

I also said in that same report that a gold correction was overdue. It came two days ago with a $27 drop. Will it go lower? I’m hoping for one more big drop and then I can buy again. Gold is headed to quadruple numbers (can you say $1,000+).

When you look at the P/E and the dividend yield of the Dow, you can see that stocks are priced for perfection, with no risk involved- until now. And for some NOW is NOW too late.

Commentators blamed the fall on the CPI. I think the cratering housing numbers is more the culprit. That housing bubble is now leaking air very fast.

I expect a bounce-back Thursday, but it will be short-lived, that’s my take anyway. Who knows what can happen in a day, for sure a week?

ARE WE A SOVEREIGN NATION?

Vicente Fox called Bush when he found out that we might put troops on the border. He was complaining. Today, word comes that Mexico might file a lawsuit against the U.S. if we try to protect our borders!

Say what?

ILLEGAL immigrants are now going to march again. For some reason, they have the mindset that if you don’t like something, you go to the streets and protest. How dare us keep them from staying here ILLEGALLY! Just who do we think we are anyway?

What will be interesting is what happens with the San Bernardino City proposal that prohibits landlords from renting to undocumented people. How dare the City Council!

But in the midst of all the clamor for “rights” without “laws”, there seemed to be a lone voice in Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador! He called the immigration exodus to the U.S. as “Mexico’s disgrace.” What’s scary here is that he’s a Chavez clone and if elected, he’d be a Chavez-Morales headache on our border, not on another continent, in South America.

What’s so hard to understand here? Are we a sovereign nation that has a right to protect it’s borders, or are there none? Currently, there are few!

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