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Gustav Hurricane- Category 4

August 30, 2008

The mystery grows because the options for category four Gustav now have four options. A big pressure ridge to the North will make or break what might happen. Specifically for New Orleans, Gustav could be worse than Katrina (much worse) or it could be a non-event for the city. Unfortunately, at this time, no one knows which option will prevali. Let’s look at the four possibilites.

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1-New Orleans is spared!
There are at lest two dozen models to look at and one of them has Gustav being pushed around by the high pressure ridge causing it to either veer to the West or to stall and head South like it did before wandering between Hatai and Cuba. Only one of the twelve models predicted that Southerly turn. If the storm heads West, Houston could take a major hit.

2-New Orleans is slightly damaged!
Guustav veers slightly to the West, coming in just West of New Iberia and Lafayette wherein Lake Charles takes a major hit and New Orleans is spared of any major damage.

3-New Orleans is hit hard!
Gustav comes in exactly as the current (noon Saturday) projection has it as a category 3 hurricane dead center or a little east Of New Iberia.

4-New Orleans is wiped out!
If Gustav move 25-75 lies East from what the current projection is, coming in West of New Orleans, the city would face a potential storm surge twice that of Katrina. TWICE! Gulf currents would be shoved into Lake Pontchartrain, thus flooding the city worse than before. Let the evacuations begin!

All four of those scenarios only talk about landfall. Then what? Then what indeed.

The high pressure ridge could cause the storm to stall bring more than TWO FOOT of rain to some areas, and push Gustav back out to sea temporarily. As the high pressure ridge subsides, Gustav makes an about face and comes ashore for a second hit and to where it hits then is anyone’s guess. The storm could also come ashore and wander to the West and basically die out flooding East Texas.

Did I mention Gustav is now a category four hurricane?

Is there any good news in there? Currently, it all depends on where you live. :-(

Written by Ernie · Filed Under Daily Commentary 

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