Iowa caucuses

November 30, 2007

We’re now just a little over a month away from the January 3rd Iowa caucus and a month ago the news media was talking about “mailing it in“. The winner is Hillary and Mitt! Ah, but that was a thirty day old news cycle. Stuff seems to happen in politics. Now the conventional wisdom is that it will be Barack & Huck. Who? It appears that Hillary Clinton’s prospects of capturing the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination and going on to take the White House are “a lot less certain” than they used to be.

The key is to win or not lose too badly in Iowa, win in New Hampshire ans from there on it is clear sailing as she’s built up several “fire-walls“. As an example, today she leads in Michigan (Jan. 15) and Nevada (Jan. 19) by more than 20 points, according to RealClearPolitics.com averages, South Carolina (Jan. 26) by 12 points and Florida (Jan. 29) by 26 points.” Pretty good looking figures.

However, a loss in Iowa could change things. And here’s the latest data. Polls in Iowa he writes, now indicate that Clinton is in deep trouble. “The topline ABC/Washington Post poll results showing Obama with 30 percent, Clinton with 26 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) with 22 mean less than other factors.”

Then in the “who cares” Republican caucus, Mike Huckabee has pulled even in some polls and slightly ahead in others- over Mitt Romney. Surging former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee Wednesday topped the latest opinion poll of the US Republican presidential field in the crucial leadoff voting state of Iowa. Just 36 days before the state’s fabled caucuses nominating contests, the ordained Baptist minister came in ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has led Iowa surveys for months.

The Rasmussen Reports poll had Huckabee leading on 28 percent of a sample of likely Republican caucus goers, with Romney second on 25 percent. So, watch for the news in the days ahead.

But there’s still a month to go and somebody needs to go to the store and stock up on “baby-wipes“.

Written by Ernie · Filed Under Daily Commentary