Place Your Bets!
January 7, 2008
You don’t have to go to Las Vegas to bet, get odds, or gamble! This is an election year folks! And the markets are suggesting that Barack Obama is the new frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Can one small state like Iowa do all of that or were the seeds of destruction there from the get-go regarding Hillary Clinton, and all that was needed was a new fresh face?
Clearly the SURGE has been working to the detriment of the Democrats but the economy seems to be coming back to favor them, in that, they now have a real live issues that impacts the wallets of all Americans. Neither Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich are trumpeting those issues.
And the lone MARE in this horse race seems totally lost!
As of Sunday morning, data from the markets imply that Obama has a 56% chance of representing his party on the ballot in November. At the same time, Hillary Clinton is seen as having a 40.5% chance of being nominated (current market prices: Obama 60.4 %, Clinton 37.5 %). This reflects a fundamental change since the Iowa caucuses. The closing prices on the day before Iowa showed that Clinton had a 65% chance of winning while Obama was a distant second at 29%.
One little state named IOWA did all of that! And it wasn’t even a primary, but an undemocratic caucus!
On the Republican side, there remains no clear frontrunner. John McCain was seen to have a 33% chance of winning while the markets showed Rudy Giuliani with a 31% chance (current numbers: McCain 34.0 % Giuliani 31.5 %).
The markets also point to Barack Obama and John McCain as the likely winners in New Hampshire. Current prices show that Obama has a 80.5 % chance of winning the Democratic Primary in the Granite State while McCain has a 84.9 % chance on the Republican side. Those are HUGE numbers to overcome in less than 48 hours. Maybe impossible?
These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa.
It’s hard to beat the “house odds”!