Super Tuesday?

January 25, 2008

The Democrats duke it out in South Carolina primary tomorrow and then the Florida primary comes three days later when both parties will surely only have three candiates alive (though a couple barely breathing) for the Super Tuesday sweepstakes. The new primary format had been set so that both parties could choose a candidate by February 5th. We’re now ten days out and it looks like neither party will have given enough votes to a candidate to wrap it up.

In Super Tuesday, more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5. The second round of big, delegate-rich states such as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania are definitely now looking to play a much larger. But, could both parties see something that’s not been seen in a long long time?

Could both convetions see brokered condition.

Hillary Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama who is gaining popularity.

There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn’t be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally.

So, watch for both candidates to criss-cross the nation in the enxt ten days going to states where they feel they have the best chance and leaving the otehr states to whatever amount of advertising dollars that are available.

The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote. Barack Obama’s growing popularity is making things more difficult for Hillary to gain a major advantage.

The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36. There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination – but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

So when all the hype of Super Tuesday has come and gone, we’ll then get down to the really nasty and dirty work of political campaigning.

Written by Ernie · Filed Under Daily Commentary

Comments

16 Responses to “Super Tuesday?”

Obama Trounces Mama (and Papa too) on January 27th, 2008 10:06 am

[...] now on to Super Tuesday where no one has to win big, the races just need to be close as delegates are not selected on a [...]
Republican Race To Super Tuesday on January 30th, 2008 8:52 am

[...] horses in the race (assuming Rudy gets out today and throws his support to John) as we head to Super Tuesday. John McCain has emerged as the man to beat for the Republican nomination. Only Mitt Romney stands [...]
Republican Race To Super Tuesday on January 30th, 2008 8:52 am

[...] horses in the race (assuming Rudy gets out today and throws his support to John) as we head to Super Tuesday. John McCain has emerged as the man to beat for the Republican nomination. Only Mitt Romney stands [...]
The Democrats Super Tuesday on February 1st, 2008 2:35 am

[...] five days out. To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must receive 2,023 delegate votes. Before we get to Super Tuesday, Hillary leads Obama with 232 to 158 (John Edwards has 62). So, what’s Super Tuesday look [...]
Hillary-Gate Revisited? on February 1st, 2008 4:42 am

[...] he has done much harm remains to be be seen come Super Tuesday. At the very least, however, the former president has begun to change the polarity of his own [...]
Hillary-Gate Revisited? on February 1st, 2008 4:42 am

[...] he has done much harm remains to be be seen come Super Tuesday. At the very least, however, the former president has begun to change the polarity of his own [...]
Gore For Obama? on February 1st, 2008 11:59 am

[...] the political mix, then there could be nothing better for him to do than back Obama NOW- before Super Tuesday. He’s surely not going toi back Hillary and staying OUT of the endorsement game won’t [...]
MoveOn Moves To Obama on February 2nd, 2008 2:42 am

[...] ahead of Super Tuesday, guess who MoveOn is [...]
Deal-Making Bubba! on February 3rd, 2008 3:45 am

[...] come Super Tuesday, we’ll know a lot more about this chaotic [...]
Super Bowl to Super Tuesday on February 4th, 2008 8:50 am

[...] Tuesday’s outcome as well? But, will the giant killer be from Illinois and not New York? Will Super Tuesday have the same results of the Super Bowl with the underdog coming out on [...]
Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton on February 5th, 2008 3:11 am

[...] what today is? It’s SUPER TUESDAY, the day we’ve all been waiting for. Who will get a slight nudge, if anyone, coming out of [...]
Super Bloomberg Time? on February 5th, 2008 11:30 am

[...] we have Super Tuesday out of the way, we’ll know alot more about whom Michael Bloomberg would be running- should he [...]
The Super Tuesday Draw on February 6th, 2008 8:16 am

[...] however, for each week that Hillary does not take command, the Barack-Star shines brighter. While Super Tuesday was big in the number of states, we now get down and dirty with more face to face [...]
Obama Wins Super Tuesday? on February 6th, 2008 9:15 am

[...] to count all of California, and all that, the “exact” number is not set in concrete. Super Tuesday was super for both candidates when you are fair about [...]
Waiting On New Mexico on February 7th, 2008 3:33 am

[...] in all of the Super Tuesday drama is one that’s not yet finished. The 38 delegates that go to new Mexico for the Democratic [...]
Global Warming Tornadoes? on February 8th, 2008 4:26 am

[...] than 50 people were killed on Super Tuesday in the Mid-west and it didn’t take but a day for the politicians to jump on the story and [...]