Superdelegate Review

April 8, 2008

In the same sense as Osama or Usma, is it super delegate as two words or superdelegate as one word? I’m going with the one word this time. But that notwithstanding, while Obama has been closing the gap between he and Hillary on them (from down 87 to down just 30), most superdelegates are taking a wait and see approach.

Many of the 320 or so party leaders and elected officials who have yet to commit cite a number of reasons: They can’t choose between two good candidates, they don’t want to interfere with the will of voters, and they think the extended contest will strengthen the party. And maybe not! But this we know, the pressure is definitely ON!

“There are a lot of things going on underneath this boiling cauldron between the candidates that will be good for us long term,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown(Ohio), an uncommitted superdelegate, noting the 26,000 new Democrats who registered in Cuyahoga County before the Ohio primary. “I’m not in a hurry to do this.”

But, former Montana senator John Melcher said he hadn’t felt any urgency to take sides in the race between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama until late last month, when Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean called on superdelegates to make up their minds by July 1. “So after two days of that, I agreed with him that maybe I should, so I did,” said Melcher, who announced Wednesday that he will support Obama, based on the candidate’s early opposition to the Iraq war.

Obama definitely has the momentum.

Other high-ranking Democrats are in a hurry, fearing that the prolonged nomination battle will hurt the party’s chances in November against Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive Republican nominee, and in congressional contests. “What you’re seeing now is creating divisions that may be hard to heal,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “We’d be in a much better position if we would focus the public’s attention [on McCain]. Instead, we’re focused on the differences between our two candidates, and it’s going to end up hurting our eventual nominee.

“I just don’t want to see our congressional candidates become collateral damage,” he added. “If the energy and excitement is not sustained, that could create problems.” Yep, it is a two-sided coin and no one yet knows which side will be up: heads or tails, good news or bad news, Hillary or Obama? The politics of destruction could end up not working.

Most recent superdelegate commitments have gone to Obama (Ill.), who is steadily eroding the lead that Clinton (N.Y.) has held from the outset of the race. But Obama’s gains have not come as quickly as many had anticipated after he followed his strong showing in Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 with 11 wins in a row.

From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gain of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP. Of the 14 superdelegates who committed to Obama in March, most said they came to their decisions independently, rather than in response to cajoling by Obama or his surrogates.

Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (Pa.), for instance, was largely left alone by the candidates, who figured the cautious freshman would remain neutral at least until the end of the primaries. But during a family vacation over Easter, Casey decided to support Obama because of his change-oriented message, a decision Casey conveyed in a surprise phone call to the candidate on Easter night.

Note: It wasn’t a 3am red phone call, but Obama answered it nonetheless!

Casey’s popularity with working-class Catholics is likely to boost Obama’s chances in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads by a sizable margin in most public opinion polls. Casey plays down Obama’s odds of winning the state, but he believes that whatever the outcome, the contest will improve Democrats’ position in the crucial battleground state this fall.

Then there’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), who endorsed Obama last week, saying that both candidates “knew where I was headed” but that she put off her decision because she wanted to remain publicly neutral. She changed her mind when she concluded that the race was dragging on for too long.

Rep. Brad Miller (N.C.), on the other hand, said he is holding out despite relentless courting by supporters of both candidates, including an aggressive Obama outreach on Capitol Hill. “They obviously have a whip system, or a buddy system, and obviously a couple people have taken me as a buddy,” he said. You thin maybe?

Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (Md.) also remains uncommitted, almost two months after his state voted overwhelmingly for Obama. Rep. Artur Davis (Ala.), a leading Obama supporter in the House, predicted that many lawmakers will wait to make a decision until after the Pennsylvania primary, including House Democrats from North Carolina and from Indiana, which both vote on May 6. And he expects many more to hold off until just after the final primaries, in South Dakota and Montana, on June 3.

While many Democrats worry that the extended nomination battle could wound the eventual candidate, others believe it could prove to be a blessing. In virtually every state that has voted, Democrats have turned out in record numbers. More than 230,000 new party members signed up in Pennsylvania alone. And Obama and Clinton are building grass-roots organizations that can be readily reactivated in the general election.

Only time will tell and time is getting shorter! That’s the GOOD NEWS!

Written by Ernie · Filed Under Election News

Comments

One Response to “Superdelegate Review”

Superdelegates Deciding on April 18th, 2008 8:20 am

[...] won the debate this week? Who knows! But what we do know is that the superdelegates are lining up behind Barack quickly. Here’s a recent [...]

Got something to say?