Who Knows In Iowa?

January 2, 2008

It is the Nobody Knows election. Nobody knows which candidates will end up representing the two main parties, nobody knows exactly when the parties will choose them, and nobody knows which issues will decide the eventual contest. We are looking at two elections, each with its own dynamic, the nomination battle – the primaries and caucuses – and the general election itself.

The landscape often changes dramatically during the course of the battle. And the Iowa caucus can do that!

John Kerry was not the Democratic frontrunner before the Iowa caucus in 2004. George W Bush was nearly derailed by the New Hampshire primary in 2000. Two candidates bashing each other can allow a third to slip through and capture the affection of the voters.

Both Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have been waging national campaigns which might blow up in their faces. At least Hillary has decided that Iowa is important whereas Rudy decided it wasn’t important- or that he couldn’t win there.

Rudy Giuliani has remained true-(ish) to his previously held conviction that abortion should be reasonably widely available to American women. This might hurt him among conservative voters in rural Iowa, but it is close to the view of most Americans as expressed in national polls.

Hillary Clinton has voted in favour of sanctions on Iran demanded by the White House. Among her party’s left wing anti-war supporters in the early primary states this caused dismay, but in the wider population it is probably the position the majority would back.

What would happen if either or both candidates came unstuck in Iowa and New Hampshire?

The traditional view is that they would crash and burn – like Howard Dean in 2004 – and we would hardly remember their names by the summer. But these candidates might be different; they have national recognition, national campaign staff and national funds. So Mr Giuliani could perhaps brush off early losses and focus on Florida which comes at the end of January and which he should win.

Hillary Clinton could do the same and focus on Super Tuesday in the first week of February where New York, New Jersey, and California will be among the big states she will expect to win. There is also less time this year between Iowa and Super Tuesday – less time for momentum to be built for an Iowa winner or lost for a loser.

At least the MEDIA has made Iowa seemingly important.

Written by Ernie · Filed Under Election News

Comments

One Response to “Who Knows In Iowa?”

» The Huck & Hillary Show! on January 5th, 2008 3:18 pm

[...] guess the political bar for running for president isn’t as high as we thought! But after all this is Iowa and no one knows or notices such things there. [...]

Got something to say?